Off Topic The "Discuss Anything Else" Thread

Thanks Cyc. Yesterday a leading scientist was saying just that. He referred to the fact that a quite large proportion of the population has a flu jab so those that don't are protected by their immunity. It's a statistical thing. If it was 10% it wouldn't give immunity but as the % of the population that has the jab increases so the herd's immunity increases. I'm sure it'll be the same with Covid.

He also made a further very good point that although the Pfizer 90% figure is worthy why did the 10% get the virus? What was it about them that made them get the virus. If it was random he felt it was OK but if it was because they shared some feature or element of their make up that was both worrying but instructive.

 

No I am not. The influenza vaccine is known to be only 60 per cent effective, so it is reasonable to assume, therefore, that the effective rate is somewhere between 40 and 60 per cent. Naturally, it must be nearer 60 or there would be no point bothering at all.

As the vaccine is only given to what are perceived to be vulnerable groups, everybody else can still catch and spread influenza. If you happen to be amongst the 40 per cent for whom the vaccine is ineffective, you can still catch influenza from some part of the herd that has not been immunised.

According to the UK statistics, around 70 per cent of the population over the age of 65 were vaccinated in 2019; and 20 per cent of the entire population (14 million people). If you consider 20 per cent of the population to be a ‘large proportion’ or ‘sufficient percentage’ then “herd immunity” could have been achieved; otherwise, like me you conclude that it has not been achieved as vaccinated people are outnumbered 4-1, and factoring in those for whom it does not work it is nearer 7-1.

The first sentence of The Lancet definition of “herd immunity” reads “Herd immunity happens when a virus can’t spread because it keeps encountering people who are protected against infection.”

There can be no “herd immunity” from influenza because it continually mutates. That may turn out to be the case for SARS-CoV-2 as well. According to estimates from universities in Hong Kong and the USA, the threshold for “herd immunity” from SARS-CoV-2 could be close to 60-70 per cent, which could see 2 million die in the USA if attempted, with no guarantee of success since there is currently no proof that survivors are immune. The theory that Sweden attempted “herd immunity” is just a popular myth.

 

On the Jimmy Kimmel show about Trump refusing to quit, this comment from a viewer:

Stevie B14 hours ago (edited)
This has to be the most seriously unhealthy cabinet of any administration that this country has ever seen. They're all heavy, huge, out of shape, and mentally deranged.

 

Lee Cain: Johnson's senior aide resigns amid infighting at No 10

Clearly at No. 10 it is not a case of “Carrie doesn’t live here anymore” but “Lee doesn’t live here anymore”. That confirms who wears the trousers in Downing Street. Carrie decided that Cain was not Able.

Obviously the Garuniad deputy political editor wanted to paint this all as government infighting.

 

Croydon Council goes bust after racking up debts of £1.5bn

You can always rely on Labour when it comes to economic competence. Their auditors have been warning them for three years to stop spending money like it grows on trees.

Perhaps they should ask Kate Moss if she can lend them a few quid.

 

Manhunt launched after Head of Army declared 'missing in action' after being dropped in wrong field

During military manoeuvres called Exercise Cerberus on Salisbury Plain, the Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith was dropped 600 metres away from where he was expected. I am sure his Special Forces training saved the day.

And this is the Army that is supposedly going to deliver vaccines around the country... I think they need to sign a contract with Deliveroo or Ocado.

 

Apologies for not knowing your age Reebs, but you will be sixth on the priority list if you are under 65 and “high risk”.

Top of the list are care home residents and workers, whilst two through five are age groups over 80, 75, 70 and 65. I do note that there is a caveat to the prioritisation that will eliminate groups if a vaccine is considered unsuitable for older people. Also, the definition of “high risk” is not entirely medical: poor BAME people will get in before you.

Anecdotes about the flu jab are just like anecdotes about dating websites: you never hear about the failures. Everybody that comments on having the annual flu jab says it has worked fine. Rather obviously some of those for whom it has not worked are dead and the 11,000 that die annually do not make the news (although they may do this year).

 

UK threatening China over Hong Kong again. As if we are in any position to threaten China

 

Of those 11,000, do we know how many had the flu jab and how many didn't?

 

We cannot do anything else, and it's important we do this for the people of HK. China acts despicably and needs to be told that. It may make no difference to China but they don't like it. The current premier is a thug.

 

I have had a look around but I cannot find anywhere that publicises that statistic. That makes sense as the NHS are trying to get more people to take the flu vaccine (given that uptake is only around 70 per cent for over 65s, how many of the other 30 per cent die?). If they went around telling people that it does not work for everyone then some might take the ‘why bother?’ attitude and the rate of uptake would fall, presenting more flu patients to the NHS each winter.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control, one third of the children who died of influenza in 2018-19 were vaccinated but they use estimated figures with a big margin. Perhaps better to focus on the two thirds unvaccinated.

 

Had my annual flu jab a few weeks ago. Being one of the nations key workers I'm hoping we get a bit higher up the priority list for corona jabs

 

USA politics and Covid19.

Nero fiddled while Rome burned.

 

Sorry to disappoint but there is no ‘key workers’ category on the list. It just depends what sort of ‘key worker’ you are classed as because ‘key infrastructure’ IT nerds like me just have to rely on our age whilst my younger colleagues are expendable. I do not consider myself to be a ‘key worker’ as if I dropped dead several of my colleagues can do my job, I am just older (and more experienced).

We know that they have placed an initial order that would cover 5 million people (2 doses each) and there are definitely more people in the country over the age of 65 than that. The only ‘key workers’ in the ten categories are care home, health and social care workers. If you are one of them they are in the top two categories:

1. older adults’ resident in a care home and care home workers
2. all those 80 years of age and over and health and social care workers
3. all those 75 years of age and over
4. all those 70 years of age and over
5. all those 65 years of age and over
6. high-risk adults under 65 years of age
7. moderate-risk adults under 65 years of age
8. all those 60 years of age and over
9. all those 55 years of age and over
10. all those 50 years of age and over

This is the list as of 25th September. For the record, number 11 is “rest of the population (priority to be determined)”.

 

how is it going in the COVID hotspot of the country?

 

The owner won't let the vid play, but if you go to Youtube and type in the following, you should be ok.


The Original Spitfire Surprise Low Pass

 

THE NIGHT THEY DROVE OLD DOMMIE DOWN

Oh, Lee Cain is the name,
And I served on the gravy train
Till Carrie's cavalry came,
And they tore up the tracks again.
.............
The night they drove old Dommie down,
And all the bells were ringing.
The night they drove old Dommie down,
And all the Tories were singing.
They went na, na na na na (extend until it gets boring)