Trump closing up a lot of gaps caused by early voting with the on-the-day voting now coming in... ...bookies are starting to make Trump favourite
Looks like Trump will keep hold of Florida and North Carolina. It’s looking as if it is all going to come down to four states: Arizona - expected Biden win, gain from Republicans Michigan - ? Pennsylvania - ? Wisconsin - ? If Trump is to win the battle for Pennsylvania, then Biden must win both of Michigan and Wisconsin in order to win the election. It’s going right to the wire. Wisconsin say their result won’t be in tonight, Michigan are trying to process 300,000 missing postal votes and need until Friday and Pennsylvania aren’t going to be in a position to announce tonight either.
The delays in the hours and days to come as we wait for postal ballots is going to be hugely influential. A whole load of postal ballots in Virginia were just added and Biden has gone from 2% behind to 6.5% in front of Trump with 14% of the vote still needing to be counted.
My feeling was and remains a real narrow Biden victory and Trump heading to the courts, screaming electoral fraud and inciting civil disobedience.
Betting markets have been all over the place. At one point Biden went out to around 5/2 with Trump at 4/9, but it’s closer now. There seems to be an assumption Trump has Florida in the bag, not sure how accurate that is yet?
Tbf, if Biden is the best candidate the Dems can come up with, there’s an argument that US politics is broken. My son said to me the other day how ironic it was, that there’s a huge turnout (by US standards) for two appalling candidates. Get two good ones and no one bothers to vote.
What's throwing the betting markets crazy (and a lot of people online who are commenting) is the waves in voting. Wave 1: The early votes (Biden-favourable) Wave 2: Election Day votes (Trump-favourable in more cases) Wave 3: The mail-in votes (Biden-favourable) A lot of people may have got slightly carried away as Wave 2 began to develop. It's going to the wire... it just all hangs on if #3 claws back enough ground to put Biden back in front at the finishing line.
So, in the event that Biden wins Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Virginia (which seems probable at this moment) - he will be 15 votes short of victory. Michigan - worth 16 votes Pennsylvania - worth 20 votes Wisconsin - worth 10 votes He may be within touching distance...
Trump not declaring victory on election night. Biden has just been out to give a speech and say that it's not for him or Trump to decide who wins the election and every valid vote must be counted. He's also publicly stated his belief that he is on course to win the election.
And, right on cue - Donald Trump starts making false allegations on Twitter in order to stir up disobedience... here come the riots. He really is a dangerous, dangerous ****. Twitter flagging the President’s tweet as misleading and hiding it from view. These are strange times. He’s gonna blow...
Can’t say I look at it and feel a lot of promise at the mo, looks like a carbon copy of last time bar Arizona. Trump set to win a lot of key states by 51-52% by the looks of it... Sticking with Biden winning the vote (by a reasonable margin), but Trump probably winning the electoral college.
I would suggest the fact that Trump is publicly flapping - and not even mentioning victory - is a positive sign. Trump knows that if this election follows due process and those postal votes (which were all cast before the deadline) are counted and added in the coming days, Biden wins enough of the key states he has to win and Trump has to clear his office. Donald’s being pushed to his endgame and it’s gonna get ugly.
PS: No guarantees in 2020 (particularly in Trump’s America) that the election does follow due process of course... Get those lawyers ready.
We are more or less where we started. AZ and the 1 electoral vote means Biden does not need PA. The totals in the three battleground states are misleading because the uncounted votes will tilt heavily in favor of Biden as they are mail-in votes from heavily left areas. But will it be enough? It’s still too close to call. And now GA is a fourth state too close to call. The most likely result is still that Biden wins MI and WI and that is all he needs.
