1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by NassauBoard, Nov 26, 2018.

  1. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2011
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    545
    In some haste (because I have promises to keep/And miles to go before I sleep), I think I should qualify the Pinatubo reference in the previous post. Obviously, I think he's the likeliest winner if he turns up, and it's quite possible that he's actually a monster, maybe even in the Frankel league. And it's entirely probable that I'll be backing him at some point in the next few weeks. But.....

    ....that does not include ante-post betting in the immediate future. The current furore over Sheikh Mohammed and the illegal/unlawful abduction of his daughter has been fully aired elsewhere, and I don't want to distract from other threads (see particularly Ron's "Sheikh Mohammed/family abduction" from last Friday, and Benoit's "Flat 2020 ante-post" from 18.12.19). Without delving into rights and wrongs, there does seem to be growing pressure on the BHA to do something about the Sheikh, or at least whisper in his ear, under their 'fit and proper' requirements for racehorse ownership. His Royal Highness doesn't seem like a man to respond kindly to constructive criticism and, as things stand, it wouldn't amaze you if he took his ball home in a strop. Whether that would actually turn the town of Newmarket into a third-world desert is probably debatable, but you can't ignore the possibiity that Pinatubo's future may lie outside the UK. Oddly enough, Charlie Appleby doesn't confide in me, so I'll simply leave it that for the present, ante-post betting on Godolphin horses might not be a bright idea.
     
    #481
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2020
    Bustino74, LG and floridaspearl like this.
  2. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2011
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    545
    SOS.
    GMOOH.
    I'm locked down at this terrible place in Norfolk, where they scrape stuff called samphire off rocks and eat it (really), and think that A Plus Tard rhymes with custard. Because I don't know whether the pig can turn the treadmill fast enough to guarantee a power supply on Friday, a sense of duty leads me to post early for tomorrow's sandfest.

    I'm drawn to Street Life in the 3yo 5f handicap at 6.30. No idea of the market as I post, nor indeed whether all the acceptors will actually run. But with 8-2 to carry, it surely won't get a better opportunity, and I'm willing to chance the fact that it's a fibresand debut. I'm sure Nass will give you a better and clearer preview nearer post time.

    Anyway. save yourselves. It's probably too late for me, but don't let them evacuate you to 'virus-free sites' in Norfolk.
     
    #482
  3. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2013
    Messages:
    4,717
    Likes Received:
    2,803
    King Robert in the 7 0 O sprint , yard in hot form ,and this his first run at the track , so could be risky , hence the 20/1 , but he has run okay at chelmsford, and with the yard on fire i’m taking a punt <laugh>
     
    #483
    smokethedeadbadger likes this.
  4. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Alas my mind is focussed on a sporting event in the Cotswolds today, so not much detail from me today.

    On Rainers selection, I’m worried/intrigued to see how this progeny of Hot Streak runs as I’ve been very underwhelmed by his four runners on this surface so far.

    one sire that has impressed in his few runners is Cable Bay and he has the 10/1 outsider Pepper Bay. The sire is 1 from 5 to win and 4 from 5 to place.

    it’s a tough little race with course form against ones who might, and possibly won’t, go on the surface.

    my key message I think is don’t use Southwell as a means to recoup losses from Cheltenham!!!
     
    #484
    Bustino74 likes this.
  5. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2012
    Messages:
    11,261
    Likes Received:
    5,197
    I'll keep this one short.

    Well done.
     
    #485
    smokethedeadbadger likes this.
  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Great shout Rainer
     
    #486
  7. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2011
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    545
    Ah, misty autumn nights with the golden lights shining down on rural Nottinghamshire; how much closer to heaven could you get ?

    Back in the real world, Nass has put up a full racecard analysis on the daily thread. I'm currently combing through the 6.45 and, if I come up with anything, I'll post again between about midday and 14.00. As a general alert, though, beware of races where Burke and Dixon are both double-entered.
     
    #487
  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658

    Thanks, I couldn't be bothered to find this thread. As its back up where it belongs, the post from the daily thread is -


    Southwell tonight, what is better than that for a Thursday night?

    4:40 - Race of the night if you like course form, so much of it to go with. Gorgeous General is the one for me here, loves the course, down to a low mark that is below his last win here, Ben Curtis takes over, blinkers and tongue tie. Surely that all points to him trying at least!!

    5:15 - Second heat of the handicap sprint, but unlike the first heat, it doesn't have much course form to go with. I've backed Decision Maker in this, given his good course form and importantly I think the race will be run to suit him. He likes to run prominently and he should be able to do that here with only one pace angle in Quaint who is drawn on his inside and should give him a nice lead into the straight. If he can sit one off the rail in second then I will be very happy when they turn in. The key to this race will be if they get the fractions right from the front as Global Melody and Northern Charm both rattled home late when first and second a week ago in a race that looked to be run at too fast a pace. Today that shouldn't happen and hence why I am happy to take them on with Decision Maker. He is a decent price too.

    6:45 - The best race of the night in terms of handicap marks, and it is the top weight here that I like in Astro Jakk. 3 from 5 at the course, with a further placed effort, he obviously likes the surface and importantly he is drawn low and has the speedy Drakefell not too far away to chase. Worry is that he has been off for 100+ days, but that is built into his price. If he is supported then take heed!!

    7:15 - had the most intriguing runner of the card in it. It no longer does.

    7:45 - Xcelente was a massive eyecatcher last time out, this extra trip will suit and drawn wide should also suit as he looks a horse with a big stride and takes a bit of time to get into his full stride. I like the form of that race (see next race) and he is due to go up in the handicap after that run. The key will be trying to tuck in a bit and that might be difficult with a few others likely to be wanting to run prominently. Hopefully Fentiman doesn't bottle it, and can manage to get him 2 or 3 wide on the turns.

    8:15 - Robero was very overpriced in this, again not the strongest race in terms of Southwell form, and he is the exception to that rule. He ran well enough behind Xcelente and like GG earlier he gets Ben Curtis taking over from a claimer. I expect he will go very well and anything over 4/1 looks fair.
     
    #488
  9. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,577
    Likes Received:
    10,380
    Nass - Ron will be mortified that you couldn’t find the thread quickly and easily using the search function. Obviously Rainer is more tech-savvy
     
    #489
    Ron and smokethedeadbadger like this.
  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    The key bit was "Couldn't be bothered" <laugh><laugh>
     
    #490
    Ron and OddDog like this.

  11. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2011
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    545
    Better looking, too.
     
    #491
    OddDog likes this.
  12. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,972
    Likes Received:
    4,169
    I thought this thread had just disappeared like the Coronavirus thread.
     
    #492
  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Just like Coronavirus, its taking an upturn now we've gone back to autumn and winter. Unlike Coronavirus, its not contagious.
     
    #493
    redcgull and smokethedeadbadger like this.
  14. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2011
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    545
    Sorry for long delay - got called up for childminding at short notice.

    The terrifying sound you can hear is the Clash of Titans: I'm taking Nass on in the 6.45 with Karl Burke's other runner, Exalted Angel.
    Not many miles on the clock, and its last run here - admittedly a long time ago - produced an eye-catching time figure. I'm not convinced that a low draw is particularly advantageous, and the winner will (probably) come from the middle-to-stands group. Clifford Lee has a very good record here (though he's been very cold for the last three or four weeks), and I'm hoping that he'll quicken past the early leaders in the last furlong and a half. About 5-1 as I post - early money for Drakefell seems to have dried up. Good luck.
     
    #494
  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658

    Bravo, not seen the race but seems you were spot on about it all.
     
    #495
    rainermariarilke likes this.
  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Just pop this back onto the first page. So I can add my views tomorrow!!
     
    #496
  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Ok, so one tonight.

    5:20 - Sealed Offer @ 9/2

    This race is very interesting, purely on the pedigree angles that I like to look at here at Southwell.

    Capla Dream is by Dream Ahead, who has a course record of 3 winners and 11 places from 57 runners, half of what the betting suggests is expected for the sire. He is a negative sire and yet Capla Dream is best priced 5/2!! (mainly 2s or under).

    Sealed Offer is by Lethal Force, who has had 12 winners and four further places from 44 runners, double the expected winners from betting odds. He is a major positive for the surface and the fact that Cowell sends him here, with headgear on for the first time and with Luke Morris in the saddle, I fully expect them to be going all out for the win. The one negative is stall number 1, but hopefully it means that Morris will push him forwards from the off and get him running up with the pace.

    Seaclusion is the one that I would worry about, but I don't think he is as open to as much improvement as Sealed Offer on this surface.

    Perfect Sign is short in the betting too, his sire Charm Spirit is 2 wins, 3 places from 22 and therefore is another that I expect to lengthen in the betting tomorrow. Black Sparrow sire Swiss Spirit is very similar with 3 wins, 4 places from 33 runners.
     
    #497
    smokethedeadbadger likes this.
  18. rainermariarilke

    rainermariarilke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2011
    Messages:
    564
    Likes Received:
    545
    Not a 5f race in sight - I'm sure they do it to spite me. Of the two early 6f races, I was rather more interested in the handicap; if inspiration comes, I'll be back tomorrow, though probably not till mid-afternoon.
     
    #498
    NassauBoard likes this.
  19. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,972
    Likes Received:
    4,169
    Villiers/Brittain to book end the card maybe. Both short enough but the double pays 11.5/1.

    4:50 - Puchita 4/1
    7:50 - Thawry 6/4
     
    #499
    NassauBoard likes this.
  20. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    The 4:50 is a tricky race, we have lots of course form and we also have a pretty good pace likely to be set. Queen Of Kalahari is the obvious one, drawn in the middle, prominent runner and loves the course, but 3lbs higher in the handicap and into a better race could find her out. The one that interests me is Liamba but he has form to overturn with Xtara, and he is shorter in the market today than I was expecting.

    It currently is a no bet race.

    5:20 - already mentioned. It'll be interesting to see if the market changes this afternoon

    5:50 - Cheap Jack, Going Native and Mr Carbonator are the three with course form. Cheap Jack has the recent winning form, Mr Carbonator has a weight pull on their race 12 days ago and should reverse places. Stone Mason and Notation both have 16% sire strike rates at the course and that makes it very tricky here. Stone Mason is a better horse than we have seen in general, but he isn't one to trust (has had issues) and Notation is drifting. Again a no bet race.

    6:20 - Xcelente should be winning this, but at 10/11 he is easy to swerve. Star Of St James and Sommer Katze both have the course form to suggest that this isn't just a penalty kick for the favourite and I think we should be having the favourite at 2/1 rather than 10/11.

    6:50 - no course form in this race!! (Captain St Lucifer only one with a run at the course). Redshank is the obvious starting point on the sire statistics, having 17% strike rate on the surface. He ran a better race last time out on handicap debut from a mark 5lbs above this. He has been nibbled in the market and I think he will run well here. Tim Easterby's Boulevard Beauty is another interesting one on sire statistics as is Russian Rumour. My bet here is Redshank at 13/2.

    7:20 - Lover's Moon is the bet here, she has a slight amount to find on official marks, but her sire Make Believe has had a good start with his Southwell runners with 1 winner from 4 runners and a further 2 places. The key here with Lover's Moon is that she is likely to be the pace angle.

    7:50 - I am amazed that Thawry is 2/1 here. He won his penultimate start here before being given a shocking ride last time out. He made up masses of ground in the last couple of furlongs and showed to me that he should be staying this trip. He is lightly raced for the grade and the jockey has plenty to prove after last time.
     
    #500

Share This Page