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2020 Two Year Olds: Discussion Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Bustino74, Jul 19, 2020.

  1. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Sounds like Hannon doesnt want to run Etonian in the Dewhurst but his hands being forced by the owner, he would prefer to keep them apart. I think its a bad decision to run him as he will struggle to lay a glove on Chindit at 7f right now and im not sure what he will get out of it. Chindit has apparently been working the house down and Dobbs has chosen him over Etonian. The Racing Post is the better Guineas trial these days and that looks a better fit for him to me as I dont think he has the speed to go with the top 7f horses. I think im going to regret not taking the price on Chindit for the Guineas, my gut feeling was this would be his year and he might not develop as much as some over the winter but if he wins the Dewhurst hes going to be a short price.
     
    #121
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Not that it will be any comfort but I don't think I would want to be backing Chindit for the Guineas
     
    #122
  3. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    A Lope de Vega 2yo and a second good buy by USA buyers at the British Yearling Sales.
     
    #123
  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Pretty Gorgeous loves the mud and won the fillies mile comfortably in the ground, the form doesnt look great with Snowfall and Dubai Fountain not beaten far. Running Shale on soft doesnt look too clever and its not an ideal prep for the Breeders Cup, shes been pushed out to 10s for that although id say shes more likely to run than Pretty Gorgeous whos now won her G1 and is unlikely to get her ground in America.
     
    #124
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Is that another bubble burst, referring to Indigo Girl; reckoned to be an exciting filly and carrying the big P from Timeform. "Open to significant improvement" but form with Dubai Fountain repeated to the inch and I doubt the latter improved much on her 6th run
     
    #125
  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    BOOM
     
    #126
  7. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Haha come on Ron you can't claim that as a boom.
     
    #127
  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Oh yes I can. I'm allowed 2 booms per year; and that's one of them. <laugh> Now into 12/1
     
    #128
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  9. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    A lot of bubbles burst there: perhaps too many.
    I'd imagine the winner will have a chance in the 2000G and, even if he does come from Hyperion's family, he looks a miler to me. Must admit I was more impressed by the victory of One Ruler. He's a Dubawi colt out of a Galileo mare who traces back to the Moller's Horama family. That's the family of Derby winner Teenoso, but also plenty of other fine horses (like Give Thanks). It's about time Dubawi had a Derby winner isn't it?
     
    #129
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Etonian out with the washing, really pointless running here from the owner. Chindit was the big disappointment, I easily got away from him at the prices along with the favourite. Went with Cadillac at the prices although when I saw his name in the race a few days ago I just assumed he wouldnt be running with the ground as it is, he was below par on soft in the Futurity and improved when stepped up to a mile back on good ground. I thought it was yet another poor ride from Shane Foley in a G1, wasting a good position and waiting to get boxed in by faster horses on a proven miler. Cadillac was smashed in the betting and started perfectly, Foley could have done whatever he liked but he was extremely passive and the horse didnt have the speed to get him out of the trouble the jockey allowed him to fall into. He ran well enough but he is another one who had no business running here, the Racing Post was the race for him. It will be a poor Guineas if any of this lot win, the race was hyped up but many horses bombed on the soft ground and I think that is the sole factor that won the race for St Marks Basillica, hes easily beaten on decent ground.
     
    #130

  11. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Thanks to the good old British weather, we learnt very little from ‘Future Champions’ weekend unless the ground is the same for next year’s Classics – assuming that they take place at all as the sport along with everything else may have totally collapsed into anarchy by then.

    There were pretty common factors about how virtually all the races were run. Those who ran horses proven not to perform at their best on soft ground clearly lost leave of their senses. Those that ran horses that have been held up and brought with a late run in their previous races did not have the brains to change their tactics so they lost as soon as the gate opened. Those horses that could handle the ground and lay up near to the pace won. Most of the form is totally useless. Instead of the fastest horses winning, the ones with feet like dinner plates that could quicken off the pace won.

    Start with Friday’s Cornwallis Stakes. Silvestre de Sousa made a large part of the running on Winter Power while the favourite Method had lost the race thanks to Oisin Murphy taking a pull at the start, doing just enough to snatch second near the post. Saddle slipped is an excuse, bad jockey decisions are not.

    It looked like some sense had prevailed in the Oh So Sharp Stakes as the winner Saffron Beach and runner-up Thank You Next had both tracked the leader – outsider Quiet Assassin under Silvestre de Sousa – until that one folded at the distance leaving them to fight it out.

    Clearly it was only de Sousa that had figured out you needed to be in the van as he won the following Challenge Stakes that was fought out by the front two.

    When it got to the feature race, the Fillies’ Mile, de Sousa had no ride and it turned out to be the only race where anything came from behind, if one considers sitting just behind Isabella Giles to be off the pace for the winner Pretty Gorgeous. Eventual runner up Indigo Girl had blown it at the start but stayed on strongly up the hill while the disappointing Shale can have no excuses as she was always handy but finished in the pack more than four lengths behind the first four. It is hard to make an excuse for Isabella Giles because she has won on soft ground but she may have just gone too quickly on the ground leading the centre group. Indigo Girl wants better ground.

    On Saturday it was that man de Sousa again in the Zetland Stakes, making sure that he had the rail and the lead on Lone Eagle, setting the fractions to suit himself and seeing off the only rival that went with him, Recovery Run. Of the rest only Fabilis briefly challenged but he ran out of steam by the Bushes. The favourite Kyprios really sucked and was surely routinely tested, although perhaps he was market leader because of where he lived.

    The most impressive winner was in the Autumn Stakes as One Ruler sat just behind Qaader, with that one cutting out the donkey work and, when it came under pressure, he took it up and readily saw off Van Gogh who was doing nothing more than staying on past beaten horses.

    That oaf Chapman had been shouting about the Dewhurst like it was the Clash of the Titans when in fact it was just an open race with half of the field rated within a few pounds of each other. The outsider Devilwala effectively did the pacemaking with de Sousa’s mount Fivethousandtoone pulling too hard and losing any chance. It may be that they went too fast up front because none of the horses that had been in the van for the first half mile made the frame, with Alkumait and Etonian dropping away tamely and Cadillac failing to overcome the pacesetter in fifth. I think that St Mark’s Basilica won because Frankie made the first move and it was decisive. The runner up Wembley always had too much to do and Thunder Moon simply could not pick up from a good position wide of the main group and obviously does not like it that soft.
     
    #131
  12. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    At this point last year the 2020 2000G winner had won a maiden (admittedly he'd also been 2nd in two Group 2s), the 1000G and Oaks winner had just finished 4th in the Fillies Mile and the Derby winner hadn't run. A long way to go.
     
    #132
  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    They must have stood out a mile <laugh>
     
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    William Hill have a book on next year's St Leger and surely if High Definition isn't fast enough for the Derby, he must be the one to beat in the St Leger.

    20/1 for the Doncaster Classic and he has to be better value for that than he is for the 2000 Guineas at 16/1.

    Amazing to see John Gosden's Darain in the 2021 Derby betting. The colt will be 4YO then and he was a bust anyway this season. When you see a horse going for his 2nd Class 5 Novice in a row, you know that the cat is out of the bag for the Classics and Darain went down that route this season. Last seen down the field in a Group 3 with the blinkers fitted, his 104 mark needs trimming.

    Funnily enough Waldkonig and Highest Ground were Derby types who also went for Class 5 Novices and the former has not been seen since, while Highest Ground ran in the same race as Darain and was even further down the field in 10th of 12 as beaten favourite. His 111 rating looks the biggest joke since Donald Trump. He needs dropped post haste and was awarded a stupid mark just because he ran in the Group 2 Dante. The assessors just won't admit when there is a ****ty renewal of a race.
     
    #134
  15. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    doubt they are going to drop him after one race where he obviously didnt run his race, hadnt been seen since the dante so probably had issues and the ground was terrible

    suppose you will be wanting the multiple other 110 horses who ran down the field in that race to be dropped 20 pounds because the winner was rated 100, ratings dont work like that, you are rated on your best, not your worst
     
    #135
  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    With the first three in the National Stakes being the first three in the Dewhurst one could argue these are the best 3 'staying' 2yos we've seen. Tomorrow Wembley represents the three in the Futurity. His main opponent seems to be One Ruler who won the race before the Dewhurst in telling fashion.
    The one horse (or rather gelding) who has done little wrong is New Mandate who beat One Ruler into 3rd on that colts previous start. New Mandate then went on to win a reasonable Royal Lodge. Second to New Mandate, ahead of One Ruler, was Laneqash who reappears in the Horris Hill tomorrow at Newbury and is a short favourite. New Mandate is not running in either race which is a shame.
    A lot of form lines could be tied up tomorrow but the going at Newbury is so heavy it would not surprise me if something comes out of the pack to ruin Laneqash's big day. Percy's Lad may be just the sort to do it.
    As regards the Futurity it would be no surprise if Wembley upholds Dewhurst form, but I was mighty taken with One Ruler at Newmarket and fancy him to beat the favourite.
     
    #136
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  17. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Percy's Lad wasn't far away at a big price. Laneqash was woeful in last place though.

    I think the ground probably did for a few today and One Ruler was one who got turned over by Bolger's Mac Swiney. That colt had already caused an upset when beating Cadillac on gutters and I can't see his form stacking up, as he has been thumped when the ground has been good in Group races.

    Van Gogh bolted up over in France but again the ground was bad and can the form be trusted?

    New Mandate had been 3rd a couple of times before getting his act together and it would have been interesting to see him again this season. I have my reservations on Ralph Beckett taking his promising 2YO's forward as 3YO's because of how many times I have seen one of his fail quite badly in their second season.

    I felt Aidan O'Brien really threw Bolshoi Ballet in at the deep end today. This was his third start in three weeks and going straight from a maiden to a 10F Group 1 on heavy ground at Saint Cloud seemed a huge ask. I am not sure anything good will come out of squeezing an extra run into a promising staying type at this stage of the season.

    Love Is You won well for Charlton today but it looked a weak affair and her earlier win hasn't worked out great, with sole winner Monsoon Moon winning a bad looking race at odds-on next time.

    No Pinatubo this season for sure and it's not often you would see a Doncaster Futurity winner sitting at 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas afterwards. Mac Swiney is favourite for the St Leger though at 16/1.

    Van Gogh was shortened for Guineas and Derby, giving Aidan more ammunition for races where he already dominates the betting. The UK challenge looks pretty feeble right now and yet again Varian seems to have nothing of note, ditto for William Haggas.

    St Marks Basilica generally tightened for the Guineas and High Definition for the Derby, where he is generally 7/1 and less now. I backed him at 25/1 and if you are going to back a no-hoper it might as well be at the bigger odds.

    Happy enough with Pretty Gorgeous and Master Of The Seas at least lost his unbeaten record behind the three horses who went on to fill the places in the Dewhurst. As ever, some of the earlier tracer bullets have already missed the target and are lying spent in the sand. Gosden has had a disappointing year with his youngsters, with only Indigo Girl looking the part and he's pretty much run out of time for unwrapping anything special now regarding the Guineas. Still ample time for the Derby and Oaks though and especially in this odd season. That unraced as a 2YO colt may just win the Derby next year.
     
    #137

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