Thursday's Meetings Haydock Flat 8 Races 1:00-4:40p.m. Doncaster Flat 7 Races 1:10-4:15p.m. Navan Flat 8 Races 1:15-4:50p.m. Chepstow Flat 8 Races 1:50-5:40p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Quite keen to take on the two maiden winners at the top of the market in the May Hill, yes they have nice pedigrees and plenty of potential but you cant be backing them that short. The one I like is Ubuntu 8/1 for Joseph Obrien, stepped forward massively on her debut to run 3rd in the Flame of Tara, that cant be far off setting the standard in this field and if she can take another step forward I think she will be hard to beat, not as flashy or sexy as some but I think shes solid. Had a small saver on Prado at 20/1 as she looks a nice type and ran on for 2nd in the Prestige despite hating the ground.
The Park Hill looks just about as weak a G2 as you will ever see, with Alpinista a non runner, that has left the progressive handicapper Believe In Love as the13/8 favourite, shes been a good story but this price is ridiculous after winning a soft ground handicap off 97(92 after the claim) with most of the field not handling conditions, im also concerned that her regular inexperienced jockey rode her all the way out when he could have coasted on the bridle and that was only 12 days ago, easy pass for me at 13/8. I love Snow and she has done me a few turns this year but her form just isnt good enough to win this, she looks like she will be there to make the pace for their American Pharoah filly running in Josephs name Pista, I backed her at 9/1 last night but heavy rule 4 and shes too short now, she looked a dour stayer last time and shes vulnerable to anything that can quicken up and take a few lengths out of her. Monica Sherrif was another improving handicapper, she won a G3 in France but that doesnt say much these days and the runner has been beaten in 3 listeds races since, I suppose she has better credentials than most in this race but I cant take to her for some reason and im looking elsewhere, she tends to race handy and I prefer a hold up horse for this race with Snow likely to go a good pace. Also suspicion that shes a mudlark. Vivionn was one that interested me initially, she has pretty solid form in the book and given shes a full sister to the decent stayer Ipsolini, she could improve for the step up in trip, just not totally convinced as shes pretty exposed and she was 8/1 yesterday before Alpinista came out and shes still 15/2 which suggests there is not much confidence behind her. The horse im going with is the outsider of the field Dubious Affair, she is another improving handicapper, winning 3 on the trot when stepped up to 14f this season, the 2nd of those was a visually impressive handicap win over the course and distance, it was off 79 and against trees but I really liked it and she looked tailor made for the course and distance, her ability to quicken up on decent ground is something I think most of this field lacks. Seems they had black type in mind with her as they wasted her 88 rating by throwing her in a race against 3 100+ experienced male stayers. She was soundly beaten by all the way winner Withhold but there was little shame in that as he is a bit of a course specialist, in his 2 previous visits to the track he won a Cesarewitch and a listed race by 6L, and he seemed to return to something like his old form on the day. They might have been planning to ride her for a place but with the favourite out this is now an unreal opportunity to win a G2 and im very confident she will run a big race. Park Hill Stakes - Dubious Affair 22/1
Fancy Sky Angel in the 13:40 at Doncaster. Seems to be improving all the time. William Buick on board.
Having a go on David Barron double at Doncaster. 1.40 - Annie Rose 20/1 (still improving, on a hatrick bid) 4.15 - Gunmetal 15/2 (this time?!?) E/w singles and double.
Ununtu was also my first port of call for value in the May Hill. On the face of it her 3rd place in the Flame Of Tara stands out against maiden winners and her RPR of 98 is one of the best in the field. Zabeel Queen is rated 87 on the same scale and Indigo Girl 82, so they need to progress to justify their odds. The worry I have with Ubuntu is that her first run was quite modest and there has been no collateral form to support the rating awarded in the Group 3 Flame Of Tara race. The Aidan O'Brien filly who won the race had run three times and all runs were rated low to mid 70's but her rating shot up to 99 and I can only think that this has been done to meet something like an average winner's rating, rather than on the form itself. The runner up in the Flame Of Tara, Ahandfulofsummers, had come in after a 3rd in a maiden that was rated 74 on RPR, so a jump to 98 looks rather a stretch of the imagination. Any race is only ever as good as the as the actual ability of the best horse in it and I am struggling to see where the 99 for winner Divinely has come from. The 4th horse Allagar from the Bolger yard has run plenty of times and came in on an official mark of 80 but that was a falling mark. She had come from 84 and poor runs had seen her go 83, 82, 80 over her next three runs. It therefore takes some believing that the official handicapper raised her to 91 for being 4th in the Flame Of Tara. The handicapper could argue that the step up to a mile might have helped her but that could only really be sensibly argued if there were already evidence of the horses in front of her being reliably established as fillies approaching 100 in ratings. The Flame Of Tara was run on Heavy ground and the time figure was poor (Topspeed 28) at almost 12 seconds slower than standard. For that reason and the ropey looking logic to the ratings I could not back Ubuntu and after being 7/1 in places earlier on, she looks desperately weak at 10/1 now. John Gosden has had a very moderate looking bunch of 2YO's so far. Quite a few have failed to build on a winning start and been turned over at short odds next time. Indigo Girl could be anything but given what has gone before this season, you would not be confident and 11/4 seems skinny. Zabeel Queen went into my notebook after her debut but I didn't expect she would be much of a price next time she ran and that is indeed the case. A couple of winners have come from her first race but just maidens and the daughter of Frankel will need to improve today. I don't think it is a strong Group 2 though and in fact you could probably argue it is Listed class, with Group 3 winner Star Of Emmaraaty having been thumped when 4th to Fev Rover in a listed contest. Dubai Fountain was 4th to Etonian last time and she has some solid form in the book but perhaps lacks the scope of some. In the end I found it hard to go against Zabeel Queen because she is likely to show up better over the mile today and I could see her going clear favourite fot the Oaks after today. Rather than play at 6/4 today I have had a poke at the Oaks for next year purely because 33/1 is a decent price in a year where contenders are scarce. Indigo Girl is also 33/1 but I just don't see it with her at the moment. 2021 Oaks Zabeel Queen 33/1
Ubuntu is very weak in the betting, everything is really except the top 2, seems to be a lot of confidence behind them, not expecting much from mine now the drift is just way too much if she had any chance at all.
Market told the story there, Dubai Fountain was the only one for a bit of money outside the top 2 and she split them. Quite disappointing all round considering where Dubai Fountain has finished. She was beaten 3.5L by Etonian in the Solario and that doesnt even look like the best of the colts form so id say this wasnt much of a race and I wouldnt be looking at any of them in the Group 1s. The winner probably a good 1m4 filly next year but not an Oaks winner imo.
Quite surprised to see Moore has preferred Ireland over a classic with Santiago, Japan really would be a surprising winner in the Irish Champion and Fancy Blue looks to have a great chance in the Matron but she is better at 10f and the Matron is hardly an illustrious G1. I was considering a very big bet on Santiago as he looks a good thing to me but slightly concerned that Moore would turn down a classic if he was as much of a cert as I thought. If its a quarantine issue meaning he wouldnt be able to ride in Ireland on Sunday if he went to Doncaster then that would probably explain it.
He will likely ride in 6 Group ones and lots of other group races in Ireland. Makes perfect sense to me.
Trappy looking race next at Donny, Cairn Island has a bit to find on official numbers against Yazaman but he seems to be the one on the up
Yeah if riding at Doncaster means he couldnt ride in Ireland on Sunday then it makes sense. Not sure what the quarantine rules are between ireland and england, dont keep up with all the bullshit scamdemic news.
