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Daily Racing Thread Saturday 15th. August 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Aug 14, 2020.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Saturday's Meetings

    Dundalk

    A/W 8 Races 12:55-4:50p.m.
    Newmarket
    Flat 8 Races 1:00-5:00p.m.
    Newbury
    Flat 9 Races 1:15-5:55p.m.
    Doncaster
    Flat 9 Races 1:40-6:10p.m.
    Chepstow(E)
    Flat 9 Races 3:45-8:00p.m.
    Tramore(E)
    Flat 7 Races 4:40-7:45p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Racing Post
    Sporting Life

    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
  2. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    Since the British government has cruelly cut off my summer sojourn in France by imposing a 14-day curfew on refugees, at Mrs LG's insistence we must return to the UK (that the Miss LG in question remains unenthusiastic on the matter of returning to school on time brings no avail), I am therefore forced to consult Eurotunnel crossings, so whilst she is not looking I shall start you off.

    Newmarket 14.05 - Knowing
    Newbury 14.25 - King Carney
    Newmarket 14.40 He's a Keeper ew
    Newbury 1500 - Mornado NAP
    Newmarket 15.15 - Glenn Coco ew
    Newbury 15.35 Surf Dancer (what I shall not be doing when I get back to St Ives)

    Fingers crossed this gives me six-sevenths of ITV7's 50K and an even luckier seventh some further bargaining chips.
     
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  3. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

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    Surely Frankie going over to France this weekend to ride one today and one tomorrow must be tips in themselves. Why risk going to have to quarantine for 14 days and miss York and other races. Obviously with a couple of the big guns missing York, Frankies decision may have been made a little easier.

    1.35 Deauville-Prix Guillaume D'ornano Stakes, MISHRIFF 6/5
     
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  4. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

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    Just a couple more that i will back tonight and then sit back and hopefully the experts will be on and I can sponge a few others :)

    3.15 NM ROCK BOY GREY 10/1
    5.00 NM BELIEVE IN LOVE 11/4
    2.50 DON VENTURA RASCAL 9/2
    4.35 DON TEXTING 8/1
     
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  5. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Tramore

    18,45

    Dalileo 8/1 e/w
     
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  6. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
    Staff Member

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    The witching hour is here (spooky moan, creaky door) and so are always to be missed telly shots!

    Noob

    150 Jumby

    225 Jahbeth hc10

    300 Max Vega ew 11-1 (definitely NOT following Pierre Lapin over the cliff any more)

    335 Glorious Journey


    Nmkt

    205 Night Bear hc8

    240 Broughton’s Gold hc10 (oh no, not HT *quakes*)

    315 Case Key hc12

    Good luck chaps and chappesses <ok>
     
    #6
  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    In the 1.35 Deauville Mishriff faces what looks a rematch with Victor Ludorum from the French Derby. That is according to the betting, but the Fabre horse was a neck behind The Summit when beaten favourite for the French Derby, so is it a two horse race?

    With Mishriff 6/5 and Victor Ludorum 11/8, The Summit perhaps appeals to some at about 15/2 for a better price. Looking back at the Prix Du Jockey Club race, the Gosden horse was ultimately a nice winner of the French classic finding a burst in the closing stages to settle it. However it was a race where Victor Ludorum had a poor draw in trap 1 and he then compounded the problem by being slowly away. The Fabre colt seemed up against it after that and sat pretty much at the back for a long way. His task looked hopeless but he did start to make headway. Meanwhile, Mishriff himself had a bit to do and he was under pressure. I thought he looked beat at one stage and looking at it again today, when Victor Ludorum started staying on and closing the leaders down, I think there was briefly a stage where he looked a more likely winner than Mishriff. In the end Victor Ludorum's run petered out and Mishriff seemed to find a second wind to come through and assert while the other two could not match it. He looked a fair and square winner but it is a slight nag in my mind that there was that stage where he looked vulnerable. Victor Ludorum probably expended a fair amount of energy getting into a position to challenge in the French Derby and in the circumstances he did well to place.

    The 5th horse in the French Derby came out and won well last week in Group 2 company, in a race where Volkan Star was a bit disappointing, looking a bit short of the 108 OR he has. For me there is some dubiety in the Volkan Star form lines, with the whole Waldkonig/Highest Ground/Thunderous interconnected form seemingly going nowhere at the moment with none of the three having any entries currently. Waldkonig seems to have disappeared and Highest Ground seemed to go to ground after his odds-on defeat in the Dante.

    There seemed a school of thought that Victor Ludorum didn't stay in the French Derby, so why does Fabre bring him back out at the same trip now?

    The ground is given as Heavy at Deauville and although Victor Ludorum has won on very soft, I feel he is better on a sound surface. Mishriff has ample experience on Heavy and surely has the advantage there. The Summit has won on very soft but also been beaten on it. His second place in the French Derby was a good run and Mishriff only really went away late in the race. If I were sending The Summit, I would want him to try to make all and perhaps nick it from the front. It was widely felt that The Summit nicked the trial for the French Guineas from the front and if the big two concentrate on each other, you just never know.

    1.35 Deauville The Summit 8/1 (Bet365) to perhaps pull off a surprise
     
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  8. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    For what its worth I reckon that 6/5 about Mishriff last night was darn good value. I thought he wasnt given the best of rides in the French Derby. He had good position but the jockey allowed him to get a little boxed in when he needed to be going forward. He showed a fantastic turn of foot to get the jockey out of trouble and given a clear run would probably have won by five or six lengths. Victor Ludorum is a bit of a woofer in my book. Travels nicely into a race but finds little when the chips are down. The Summit is a nice genuine horse and won the guineas from the front but at this level and at this trip he just isnt quite good enough. I would drop him back to a mile but to be honest that trip is quite competitive and connections are probably happy picking up place money.
    The outsider will surely make the running but is not up to this grade and wont get it all his own way with The Summit liking to race near the pace. That should set it up perfectly for Mishriff who today has the added bonus of having Frankie on board. The shockingly small turnout means there can be no excuse this time for Victor Ludorum.

    No shocks for me, Mishriff wins.
     
    #8
  9. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

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    Outsider now a nr, 4 horse race and MISHRIFF 8/11
     
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  10. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Gonna be pissing down all day at Newbury by the looks. Shame, as that 7f 2yold race looks interesting. On the face of it, it’s Gosden vs Godolphin, with the Eve Johnson-Houghton colt making the outsider of three.

    The one that interests me though at the prices is Francesco Gaudi, who ran green at Salisbury and looked like he might appreciate further already. The going, if it suits, might make this more of a test. Has a Derby entry.
     
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  11. NDS

    NDS Well-Known Member

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    Chepstow
    Accrington Stanley 4.20
    Doncaster
    North Wind 4.35
    Dundalk
    Make A Promise 3.05 Nap
    Newbury
    Dream Of Dreams 3.35
    Tritonic 3.00
    Newmarket
    Jane Marple 5.00

    You can tell I've got golf today and tomorrow as the rain hits ..bloody typical

    All the ones to avoid have been posted, good luck all
     
    #11
  12. Sugarrush

    Sugarrush Active Member

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    One I like today is the mackem missile at donny 2nd run back after wind op
     
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  13. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I fully expect Breathtaking Look to bolt up in the Hungerford (Newbury, 3:35) as I desert her here stepped up in class after she failed to deliver at Goodwood. It is very hard to make any sort of case for Pierre Lapin after his no-show at this level last time. Best chance amongst the three year olds may be Surf Dancer, stepping up after winning a listed race at York (Lincoln Bright and Symbolize behind) rather than Threat, well beaten in both starts this year and has possibly not trained on. Glorious Journey won this last term but a reproduction of that will have to be taken on trust as he did nothing at Goodwood after a five month layoff and carries a penalty, so favourite DREAM OF DREAMS looks an obvious pick based on his second in the Diamond Jubilee.

    I cannot bring myself to back Afaak in the 2:25 with my jinx jockey aboard. The third in the Golden Mile with blinkers applied looks good enough to win this less stiffly contested event.

    Over at HQ, I like a topweight in a three year old handicap (2:40), and I especially like one that is on a hat-trick: KARIBANA. He won last time over course and distance, so no excuses there. He has to give 5lb to Broughtons Gold, who won over six last time but has won over seven on the sand. The biggest danger may be Dashing Roger, receiving 11lb and a winner last time at Yarmouth over a mile.

    The judge must be hoping there is no photo finish to the 3:15 as it may not matter if it is colour or black and white. It would be wonderful if the old boy Case Key could win it a third time, but there was juice in the ground when he won in 2019 and 2017, the latter of those off a 1lb higher mark was a blanket finish with two lengths covering the first eight!

    Frankie will be missing York as he has gone to France for Deauville. Nobody will be getting rich on his mounts unless they can get PMU returns. Gosden raider Mishriff faces Victor Ludorum in the five-runner Prix Guillaume d’Ornano, he has no ride in the Prix Gontaut-biron featuring Sottsass, and his other intended ride Parent’s Prayer is a non runner. Palace Pier had better produce the goods on Sunday as he has surely passed up better winning changing at York for a fortnight with the missus at home.
     
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  14. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I saw that those desperate to get back paid silly money for Eurostar tickets on Friday. They should have just gone to Calais, got in a rubber dinghy and pointed it towards Dover. The Royal Navy or Border Force would have picked them up halfway.

    Nobody should be worrying about their kids missing the start of the school year as the teaching unions will make sure they do not start anyway.

    The bad news is that Piers Morgan decided to head back early, although one imagines that if he had to do fourteen days quarantine he would be on Zoom 24/7 berating Boris. Stuck in the house with him for a fortnight, Celia Walden would be in the Telegraph writing about her search for a divorce lawyer. <laugh>
     
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  15. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Is this the Daily Thread?

    I am sweet on Alan Kings SULA ISLAND 15/2 in the Newbury amateur race. Looked better than ever on seasonal debut and won with any amount in hand. The formbook will tell you that the daughter is riding this one in public for the first time but that is simply not true. She won the Charity Derby at Epsom last year but that race is not in the formbook. The pair bolted up that day with young Georgia looking a very able pilot.
     
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  16. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Morning

    2.15 Doncaster-Nazuna @ 100-30 [Unibet]

    Liked her debut run
     
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  17. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Morning all,

    Just been up to the Drinkwater yard to see our fella who was looking well and is likely to be out end of September...looking forward to that.

    As for today's racing don't really fancy much. Was quite sweet on Threat in the Hungerford Stakes but really think the ground has gone against him so for me the horse with the obvious chance in the race is Dream of Dreams. He will appreciate the drop down in class and was 2nd in this race previously. Won't mind any further rain so he represents a pretty solid bet.

    Have backed him to win at 9/4.

    Good luck all. :emoticon-0167-beer:
     
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  18. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Afaak and Dream Of Dreams double for me today.
     
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  19. karlos5001

    karlos5001 Well-Known Member

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    2.40 Newmarket Broughtons Gold
    3.00 Newbury Max Vega
    Singles and double.
    Kevin De Bruyne to score from outside the area 6/1, later in the football. I’ll have another look at the racing in a bit. Good luck with yours fellas. Have a nice weekend :emoticon-0148-yes::emoticon-0167-beer:
     
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  20. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Dhahabi was a winner for me on debut but I thought he was a horse who would need more time before going up in grade. Trainer Charlie Appleby said they would go steadily with the colt and perhaps he considers this Listed Race to be a stepping stone to Group company. He's too short for me to go in today though because the form line through New Mandate, who has also run behind Jumby, leaves Dhahabi and Jumby as very similar horses after their solitary run so far. I felt Jumby was better value at 7/2, with Dhahabi generally 6/4 but needing to step up to justify that difference in odds.

    1.50 Newbury Jumby 7/2 for some potential value.
     
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