Monday's Meetings Haydock Flat 9 Races 1:45-5:50p.m. Yarmouth Flat 9 Races 2:00-6:00p.m. Naas Flat 8 Races 2:05-5:35p.m. Roscommon N/H 7 Races 2:20-5:20p.m. Windsor(E) Flat 8 Races 4:40-8:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Haydock 4.45 Picture Frame 13/2 looks a reasonable price for a relatively unexposed Godolfin horse with Cieren Fallon onboard taking 3 pounds off
In the 5:40 at Windsor, Tank Top's favourite jockette Megan Nicholls is on Magical Ride, seems like a tip in itself!
Is today the day then? The 4.35 at Naas sees So Wonderful try to shed her maiden tag for the 14th Time The Aidan O'Brien trained filly is officially rated 102 and is 20 lbs clear on official ratings. Her best ever Racing Post rating is 107 and she is 18 lbs clear of her nearest rival on RPR figures today. Her best efforts were a 3rd to Love in last year's Moyglare and then in this year's Irish 1000 Guineas she was only a head behind the runner-up Fancy Blue, who went on to win the Prix Diane and the Nassau. On paper those two runs make So Wonderful nigh on unbeatable you would think in a 7F Naas maiden and you would expect her to be well odds-on. However, a general disappointing profile with several beaten favourites beside her name and particularly the howler of an effort last time in a maiden, where she ran to 72 on RPRs have meant that bookies are offering a carrot in the form of Evens today. The run last time needs forgiving for sure and perhaps she is flattered by some of the ratings awarded in Group 1 races (Something I feel happens all too often) but I think if she can run to 90 today, she can win this race. The reasoning is that clear second favourite Ediyva has plenty scope but her RPR for a debut 4th last season is only 82, which leaves a fair chunk to find. In addition to that Ediyva has been off for about 10 months and you would have expected to see her before now, with the shortened season already into August. She has also transferred from Dermot Weld to Mick Halford. Overall I couldn't shake the feeling that So Wonderful has been very highly tried and plenty of her runs would be good enough to win this. She was beaten in another maiden last year when favourite but she stumbled badly leaving the stalls that day in a 6F race. With 1st time blinkers on today I thought it worth sticking So Wonderful in to make up a double. The other half of the double is over at Haydock in the 4.15 race. Queen's Course had snippets of form for William Haggas and has competed in three races that all provided future winners. The Gleneagles filly was short of room last time and had to be switched when finishing 4th. That was off 64 in a Handicap race and she is down one pound today. Transferred to David O'Meara now she is reunited with Daniel Tudhope, who rode her twice for Haggas. There may be a bit more to come now and it doesn't look a very inspiring race. I felt her potential was compelling in a race where any improvement could be the key to winning it. 4.15 Haydock Queen's Course 3/1 4.35 Naas So Wonderful Evens Win double
Shocking effort from the Harrington favourite in the opener at Naas. I did see Choice And Chance tipped up this morning but I felt she was short enough given that an Aidan O'Brien previous winner was in the field. Choice And Chance was getting weight but had debuted at 7F and was dropping to 6F today and that's not a progression I am keen on. If the horse is a sprinter, why start at 7F? I decided to leave the race alone with the betting tight between Choice And Chance and Giorgio Vasari, who had won at the third time of asking. As ever, Choice And Chance was backed to 6/5 Fav while Giorgio Vasari drifted out to 4/1. Giorgio Vasari made all and won comfortably, while Choice And Chance was nowhere in 9th place, even finishing behind a 300/1 shot with two previous runs of 43 and 26 on Racing Post figures. What was the old saying in betting? "Follow the money" Not today and I would imagine the Stewards would be asking for an explanation.
Maybe, but I would say young William Buick is about the best in Europe at the moment? Said this before, I know, but a great judge of pace for one so young. His ride on the Eclipse winner was nothing short of perfection.
It would be interesting to see the stats on the front running at least, anytime I'm watching racing and Hollie Doyle hits the front, she wins more than she loses.
Racing abandoned at Yarmouth, Lord Chapelfield took a fatal fall and they had a track inspection. Gabriele Malune is reported to be ok but is going to hospital for further assessment.
I've had a look at the numbers for winners ridden when horse leads, this season the numbers are Jockey Runners Winners William Buick 36 15 Joe Fanning 51 9 Franny Norton 40 9 James Doyle 32 9 Silvestre De Sousa 44 9 Oisin Murphy 29 9 Hollie Doyle 26 9 B A Curtis 50 8 Kieran Shoemark 37 8 P J McDonald 36 8 Tom Marquand 30 7 Daniel Tudhope 26 7 Jack Mitchell 24 7 Luke Morris 21 6 Kevin Stott 26 6 David Allan 30 6 Paul Mulrennan 28 6 Rob Hornby 20 6 Charles Bishop 22 5 That is very impressive from Buick, and Hollie has a very taking strike rate too. The one that surprises me in that list is Jack Mitchell.
So Wonderful manages to find one too good yet again. 2nd to a filly coming in after two efforts of 70 on Racing Post figures. Not much that Aidan can try now after having blinkers on today. I reckon if it were a colt we were dealing with the Cobbler's Awls would be whipped off. The other half of the double looked to have it won from a positive ride. It really looked like she had it in the bag but perhaps she was ridden as if it were a 6F race and her early effort to get a good position seemed to pay in the final furlong and the cavalry caught up. The top weight swooped to win it and Queens Course was beaten half a length and a neck into third after seeming to have had the race won. She ended up 4/1 and it was a good run with the favourite unplaced. The thinking coming in from some parts was that the stiffer track at Haydock might help today but if anything a drop to 6F looked a more likely next step. It was a day where several horses were very well backed into short enough odds and most of them disappointed. Rival 11/10, Solent Gateway 5/4, Dreamweaver 8/11,Frenetic Evs, Quickstep Lady 4/11, La Dragontea Evs, Taawfan 10/11, all went down the pan with So Wonderful and Choice and Chance but perhaps worst of all was Epsom Derby 3rd Amhran Na Bhiffian getting beaten in a maiden race at odds of 8/15. Amhran Na Bhiffian was reported to be lame post race and it was a race where he was rated 31 lbs ahead of the winner on RPR so the obvious conclusion is that he ran well below his form. He did manage to finish 7 lengths in front of the third, who was 57 rated coming in, so it'snot as if he totally broke down. The Harrington horse in that maiden was rated 81 on official figures but has run like a drain and finished behind a 150/1 shot rated 51 on RPR coming in.
maybe Serpentine will prove he is in the top 3 from the race but its now beyond doubt he was massively flattered in a freak race
Hollie Doyle with two more front running wins today. I think her level stakes profit when front running is in the mid 50's somewhere, or maybe I miscalculated it. Basically hit the back button if she hits the front early on in a race and you're in clover.
