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Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 29th. July 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jul 28, 2020.

  1. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Keen on him aswell Joe.
    Good luck
     
    #21
  2. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Loved the turn of foot he showed in the Guineas and hopefully we will see it again today <ok>
     
    #22
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Molecomb is open and tricky looking.

    Sardinia Sunset has just about the strongest form winning after a good 4th in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. She was odds-on that day though and the runner up was a bit disappointing next time.

    Steel Bull could be decent and won on debut but I have been watching Significantly and feel he has a chance. He has three seconds but I feel he has an engine there waiting to click in the right circumstances. He bumped into Muker on debut and that horse went on to run a mighty race at Royal Ascot. Significantly then somehow managed to get beat when tried at 6F, looking likely to win well before faltering slightly and getting caught. I have watched that race a few times and still can't believe he didn't win it. Last time out he again travelled through with promise before being run down late.

    Significantly looks to me as if he doesn't quite know how to put it all together in a race and I feel there is more to come from him once he clicks. His form level puts him in the mix here and perhaps he'll put the pieces together today.

    Backed him at 5/1 last night and still some 9/2 about.

    Steel Bull is well supported this morning but Chief Little Hawk is weak for Aidan O'Brien with a profile that lacks progression.

    2.45 Goodwood Significantly 5/1

     
    #23
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  4. mandrake

    mandrake Active Member

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    Ayr 5.00 Glory fighter 4-1
    Price gone but got the impression Jardines were running into a bit of form yesterday.
     
    #24
  5. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I did like the look of JP's Winter Escape last night but it has drifted like the proverbial barge. Not the force of a couple of years ago but SUB LIEUTENANT is a big price at 40/1. He has slipped down the weights and HdeB legs up a 7lb claimer for good measure.
     
    #25
  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I said yesterday that Roger Varian had some good chances at Goodwood (my seconditis continuing with Angel Power in the opener) and the more fancied ones never mustered a win between them and then he won the last with Believe In Love at 11/1.

    So Day Two opens with another fillies’ handicap and it almost looks like Varian v Haggas! The bottom weight Varian three-year-old Waliyak arguably has the best form on offer but steps up two furlongs on different going/track conditions to the soft of Royal Ascot. At the other end of the handicap, can Haggas five-year-old Nkosikazi give away weight (4lb worse with stablemate for a short head on their 2019 meeting) and defy an 8lb rise for winning two races against an aggregate nine opponents? The problem with the other Haggas filly, Ghaziyah, is having to take her full fitness on trust and her previous visit to Goodwood was hardly inspiring.

    Everybody knows how much Mark Johnston likes a Goodwood winner, so if True Destiny is not going to go better than runner-up last year, which of the Johnston runners is going to win the 1:45? I think that SUMMER MOON and Withhold may have lit each other up at Sandown last time and Johnston’s gelding may be better judged on his third behind Coeur de Lion in the Ascot Stakes. Alan King’s old timer had his day there and his only previous visit to Goodwood was this race two years ago when he was a no-show on a track not really suited to his hold-up style of racing.

    Having mentioned Johnston, what about the top weight in the three year old handicap (2:15), King’s Caper, after finishing second in the Italian Derby? What does that tell us about Italian racing this year?

    Good luck to anyone punting on the Molecomb Stakes. There are a few with Royal Ascot juvenile race form (both good and bad) and two or three stepping up to pattern company. If forced to back one, Sardinia Sunset did as much as she needed to winning last time and was a good fourth in the Queen Mary; and gets 3lb from the boys.

    Hopefully we will learn a great deal from the feature race of the week, the Sussex Stakes, as the Classic generation meet their elders. Kameko won fair and square at HQ but did not get much credit as more time was spent discussing the defeat of Pinatubo. He beat Wichita that day but this course may be better for the horse that Frankie once again rides. Subsequently, Pinatubo reversed placings with Wichita at Ascot while Kameko took his chance in the Derby. The 2000 Guineas form has not worked out and that is what puts me off Kameko the most. Over at The Curragh, Siskin was much more impressive visually in maintaining his unbeaten record with a quick change of gears and I cannot see Vatican City reversing that form. The Irish 2000 form equally looks nothing great with the third Lope Y Fernandez runner up in the Prix Jean Prat; however, of the three year olds I think Siskin is the more likely winner if Colin Keane does not hold him up too far off the lead. Ryan Moore has chosen Queen Anne winner Circus Maximus over the stable’s three year olds and at Royal Ascot he did have Mohaather more than five lengths behind when that rival was held up at the rear that day. The problem with Circus Maximus is that I do not see him improving as he has been running to the same 118-ish rating since this race last term. After the Queen Anne, Mohaather came out and slammed San Donato in the Summer Mile, which it is hard to see being reversed by the latter. Marcus Tregoning’s colt has few miles on the clock and the scope to go on again, so unless Siskin is top draw, MOHAATHER is my idea of the winner (despite my jinx jockey Crowley).
     
    #26
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  7. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    Good write up but Steel Bull wins sorry :1980_boogie_down:
     
    #27
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  8. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    tricky day today

    1.10 Waliyak a worthy favourite but DEAN STREET DOLL is a good each way alternative
    1.45 very open race. The Mark Johnston runners ROCHESTER HOUSE and SUMMER MOON should go well
    2.15 I will stick with the Johnston runners GLENTIES and KINGS CAPER, with A STAR ABOVE a further horse to make the frame
    2.45 STEEL BULL will take all the beating. SARDINIA SUNSET clearly the biggest danger
    3.15 Been following MOHAATHER all season and so won't desert him now, although SISKIN really could emerge as a new superstar if he wins this.
    Circus Maximus will probably find one too good in this really hot race. Kameko probably the only other possible winner, but it all depends how he came out of Epsom
     
    #28
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  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Sussex sees the unbeaten Siskin on show and the chance to compare Guineas races has arrived. I would probably have said Kameko's form looks the more reliable given Pinatubo's efforts and also Wichita's solid profile. I don't like the 8F, 12F, 8F race progression though and his Derby run was somewhat unsatisfactory, as he never really showed with any hope of winning it in a race where Serpentine just went out an led them a merry dance. Very weak at 6/1 it almost looks like time to book an ambulance for a Guineas winner at those odds.

    I opposed Siskin at the odds in the Irish Guineas but he won it fair and square. Vatican City was runner up but he went on to try the Derby trip when there was little hope of him getting it based on his full brothers and sisters. Back to a mile now, he has the same issue as Kameko and is also weak but the concern is that we never learned if he paid a compliment to Siskin next time out. Generally speaking I don't think the Irish Guineas was a good renewal and not much has come out to dispute that view.

    Circus Maximus nailed my selection Terebellum in the Queen Anne and he is more than capable on his day but his profile is a bit up and down for me. He's been tried at several distances but his best wins have been at a mile, with the Prix Moulin and St James' Palace Stakes being the other big wins on his CV. Looking back to that latter race he narrowly denied a real "Ham Shanker" in King Of Comedy that day and it has to be a concern that Terebellum was only 3rd when odds-on in the Falmouth next time.

    I went with Mohaather, who was arguably unlucky in the Queen Anne. I thought he would need the run that day and wasn't convinced he would have won but he made no mistake next time in swatting his field. He was my ante-post Guineas horse last season until injury ruled him out and he is Marcus's best horse for a while. He holds an excellent chance today and was better value to my eye than Siskin. I feel Mohaather will pick them all off in the closing stages today and he's a confident pick for me at 3/1.

    3.15 Goodwood Mohaather 3/1
     
    #29
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  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I did look at Sub Lieutenant mate but I would want it to really dry out for him <ok>
     
    #30

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Steel Bull has a good chance and he is a concern for me with improvement highly likely. My issue was that Steel Bull beat an odds-on favourite last time in Dense Star and that filly seems mired and not progressing after now 4 runs, all rated in the 70's. That was a maiden race and at 5/2 odds now, Steel Bull is too tight for me stepping up to Group 3.

    Significantly and Sardinia Sunset bring Listed class form in and at the relative odds I felt they offer better value.

    Army Of India trotted up over 6F last time and although not a great race he does have an official rating of 88 now. That is not Group 3 form really but nothing in the race looks to be of that calibre yet either. He barely lasted home to win over 6F on debut and was a rank outsider when pitched into the Coventry as a 66/1 shot and well down the field in what looked a clear case of too much, too soon. The drop to 5F looks up his street and he will probably try to blaze the trail today. Goodwood should suit him and Mark Johnston is known for his record at the meeting. I think 14/1 is too big, so had a saver on him.

    2.45 Goodwood Army Of India 14/1 (Saver bet at big odds)
     
    #31
  12. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Like that analysis Grendel and very confident choice. No bet in the race myself but good luck with it. Vatican City is an interesting runner in my mind but as I said leaving the race alone..
     
    #32
  13. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Sad news Defoe has gone to the big stable in the sky.
     
    #33
  14. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    A season on season regular, RIP Defoe <peacedove>
     
    #34
  15. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Excellent write-ups, Grendel, very interesting analyses. <ok>
     
    #35
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  16. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    3rd at 14/1...:emoticon-0148-yes:
     
    #36
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  17. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Did you notice McCain and Hughes are really mopping things up at Bangor? I make it three in already!
     
    #37
  18. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Yes have noticed...on fire you could say!
     
    #38
  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    <badger>yes, I’ve noticed.<badger>
     
    #39
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  20. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Cosy for Steel Bull, he's a fast 2YO and will probably be aimed at some of the best 5F contests now. Significantly missed the break and was always going to find it tough, also took a bit of a bump, but probably hasn't come forward from the last start and has run to a lower mark today, the horse who was 3rd today has turned the form around by about a length this time suggesting that is the case.

    Army Of India missed the break even worse and then was rushed up to try to make all, unsurprisingly that was a fatal tactic and he faded badly.

    Nice showing from Steel Bull, I felt he was dangerous but the odds were a little tight, punters thought otherwise and he was well backed, rightly so. One in the ribs for the bookies there.
     
    #40

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