Daily Racing Thread Saturday 25th. July 2020

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So the International is a race that interests me today, run over same course and distance as the Buckingham Palace that started the Royal Ascot meeting, and that race along with the draw/ground is the key to this renewal.

Stand: 8.1 Centre: 7.6 Far: 8.0. Round 7.9. On Friday at 8.10am.

Last year it was the Royal Hunt Cup that performed the role of key form guide when Raising Sand turned a 3rd in the Hunt Cup into a win in this race, importantly a high draw was critical. Burnt Sugar ran in the Hunt Cup (midfield) before winning this in 2018, Librissa Breeze did the same in 2016 .

So the key here could easily be those Royal Ascot handicaps -

Buckingham Palace - Dominated by horses drawn high, Jacks Point (2nd), Mutamaasik (3rd), Cliffs Of Capri (4th), Shelir (5th), Ebury (6th) all return to Ascot here, and more importantly the draw has been scrambled

Shelir again has been drawn low, which given how eyecatching he was in the Buckingham Palace is a massive shame, Jacks Point is drawn in the middle this time in 11, and whilst he will pop out towards the front, I think he will struggle to repeat the great run from the Buckingham Palace.

Ebury is drawn in 13, a much better draw on paper than the stall 3 he had in the Buckingham Palace and he is of major interest here. He is very unexposed compared to the majority of this field, having only had 7 career runs and he has very good course form. Today he should be able to track the pace drawn high and I am very hopefully of a career best effort by him.

Mutamaasik is drawn next to him in 14, and he is another who is relatively lightly raced and looked progressive before a very poor run last time out. If you are able to forgive that run then he is a massive player here. In the Buckingham Palace he was drawn similarly and did very well to place. He ran in the middle group that day, but I am hopeful that they will track across with the slightly smaller field here.

Cliffs Of Capri ran a very good race in the Buckingham Palace, he travelled very well and then stayed on nicely to finish a never nearer 4th, and that run was when the yard weren't in the best of form. He again gets a plum draw in 18 and crucially here he should be able to sit in behind the pace that is likely to be set by Cardsharp drawn high. He has brilliant course form in big handicaps, and I think today is the day that he puts all of it together and lands a big race for the Melbourne 10.

Cardsharp is an interesting one drawn highest, a horse who ran disappointingly in the Hunt Cup and similarly since, but he should be able to get to the front from his draw and this trip suits him very well. Now low in the handicap he could easily outrun his price and I think he is one that could be overpriced.


The two i've backed are Ebury and Cliffs Of Capri, with forecasts and tricasts of that pair plus Cardsharp and Mutamaasik.
I was reading this thinking bloody hell, stop with the waffle and just tell me who you think will win so I can cross them off <laugh>
 
19:30 Doncaster - Mac Ailey

(Usual Saturday punt quite late today, as don't fancy anything at Ascot and the other afternoon meetings. Selection has decent chance on form, distance OK, and suited by the going (can handle most ground conditions). Tim Easterby yard have booked Rachel Richardson to take the ride. Still 10/1 with Willie Hill at time of writing; doubt if SP will be any better.)
 
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Comp picks below,All wrapped up in a lucky 63 and acca, done the ITV7 also for minimal stakes

Newmarket
Data Protection 4.00
York
Queens Order 12.55
Queen of Kalahari 3.50
Tabaahy 4.25
Ascot
Twaasol 1.50
Gin Palace 2.25 ew Nap


Lucky 63 & acca part 2
Renaissance Rose 1.15 Ascot 3/1
Prompting 1.30 York 15/8
Golden Hind York 14.05 4/1
Tsar Ascot 3.00 15/8
Hartswood York 3.15 11/4
Ironclad 4.00 Newmarket 3/1

Telecaster already done in a single and got an early treble on

Faros Lane
Han Solo Berger
Mayass

Good luck all
 
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So the International is a race that interests me today, run over same course and distance as the Buckingham Palace that started the Royal Ascot meeting, and that race along with the draw/ground is the key to this renewal.

Stand: 8.1 Centre: 7.6 Far: 8.0. Round 7.9. On Friday at 8.10am.

Last year it was the Royal Hunt Cup that performed the role of key form guide when Raising Sand turned a 3rd in the Hunt Cup into a win in this race, importantly a high draw was critical. Burnt Sugar ran in the Hunt Cup (midfield) before winning this in 2018, Librissa Breeze did the same in 2016 .

So the key here could easily be those Royal Ascot handicaps -

Buckingham Palace - Dominated by horses drawn high, Jacks Point (2nd), Mutamaasik (3rd), Cliffs Of Capri (4th), Shelir (5th), Ebury (6th) all return to Ascot here, and more importantly the draw has been scrambled

Shelir again has been drawn low, which given how eyecatching he was in the Buckingham Palace is a massive shame, Jacks Point is drawn in the middle this time in 11, and whilst he will pop out towards the front, I think he will struggle to repeat the great run from the Buckingham Palace.

Ebury is drawn in 13, a much better draw on paper than the stall 3 he had in the Buckingham Palace and he is of major interest here. He is very unexposed compared to the majority of this field, having only had 7 career runs and he has very good course form. Today he should be able to track the pace drawn high and I am very hopefully of a career best effort by him.

Mutamaasik is drawn next to him in 14, and he is another who is relatively lightly raced and looked progressive before a very poor run last time out. If you are able to forgive that run then he is a massive player here. In the Buckingham Palace he was drawn similarly and did very well to place. He ran in the middle group that day, but I am hopeful that they will track across with the slightly smaller field here.

Cliffs Of Capri ran a very good race in the Buckingham Palace, he travelled very well and then stayed on nicely to finish a never nearer 4th, and that run was when the yard weren't in the best of form. He again gets a plum draw in 18 and crucially here he should be able to sit in behind the pace that is likely to be set by Cardsharp drawn high. He has brilliant course form in big handicaps, and I think today is the day that he puts all of it together and lands a big race for the Melbourne 10.

Cardsharp is an interesting one drawn highest, a horse who ran disappointingly in the Hunt Cup and similarly since, but he should be able to get to the front from his draw and this trip suits him very well. Now low in the handicap he could easily outrun his price and I think he is one that could be overpriced.


The two i've backed are Ebury and Cliffs Of Capri, with forecasts and tricasts of that pair plus Cardsharp and Mutamaasik.

Nice write up......probably, but no mention to the winner....ESHAASY 6/1. Very lightly raced, sure to have improvement to come and well drawn to boot. Gets in at the bottom of the weights with a 3yo WFA allowance and a very tidy apprentice for good measure. Could turn this into a procession!
 
Nice write up......probably, but no mention to the winner....ESHAASY 6/1. Very lightly raced, sure to have improvement to come and well drawn to boot. Gets in at the bottom of the weights with a 3yo WFA allowance and a very tidy apprentice for good measure. Could turn this into a procession!


Since 1998 we've had 66 3 year olds run in the race and only one of them has won (21 races competed in). 10 have placed.

4 year olds have won 13 of the 21 races, from 181 runners. If you backed all 4 year olds to £1 level you'd be up £257 from the 21 races.
 
Next time we hear one of those trainers whinging about lack of prize money, remind them that three of the four runners declared for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes crossed the Irish Sea to try and win over £200k. Okay, so it is not £1.2m but it would feed a lot of horses and buy bling for the other half.

In the 2:25, Spanish City owes me too much money from last season so he is bound to pop up today. The field is dominated by others with a similar profile – always running a good race in the big handicaps but never actually winning one. Vale Of Kent has Frankie’s services but has disappointed a couple of times this term and has to give everyone weight. Gin Palace has won his last two but his apprentice rider may find this a little more challenging than the eight runner affair last time.

Will the Tsar be able to fend off The Queen’s Evening Sun in the 3:00? Lincoln Bright’s efforts since chasing home The Queen’s colt suggest it could have a generous opening handicap mark.

It is very hard to summon up any enthusiasm for the races at HQ as a form punter. I was looking for something backable in the York Stakes but last year’s winner Elarqam has hardly been lighting up the world this season, Regal Reality did not match last year’s effort in the Eclipse and this is surely not Lord Glitters’ trip. I simply cannot summon up any enthusiasm for Telecaster despite his win in France, so that leads me to Roger Charlton’s Aspetar (warmed up with a Listed race second on the Eclipse card) or John Gosden’s KING OF COMEDY (warmed up in a Newbury Group 3 over a mile) who was second in last year’s St James’s Palace and not beaten far in the Juddmonte over course and distance (Elarqam just in front).

I cannot fathom why Richard Fahey, in his column on Sporting Life, states that Hartswood is not certain to stay a mile but rain would help his cause. He also says of his other runner Tadleel (one career turf win) that he would “give him a chance” – if he starts the race, he has one.
 
Tsar ran in a maiden that was discussed a fair bit on the forum last year. Al Suhail was the one I felt would do best long term from that race and after a dismal Guineas run he was pretty impressive last time. The Hannon horse who won that maiden has had an absence and not come back as expected this year with a narrow win from a colt rated about 90 and then a very disappointing run next time. The other horse I felt worth taking from that maiden was Tsar and he is starting to look the part now.

I think there is more to come and feel he can defy his rise in the weights today.

Eshaasy also ran in that maiden last year and has a chance in the International Handicap but the odds look tight in a 20 runner field.

3.00 Ascot Tsar 9/4

At Newmarket in the 1.40 newcomer Dhahabi is one I noted from the entries midweek. A son of Frankel out of Golden Horn's Dam, I didn't know they has paid £3.1 million Guineas for him. He faces two close rivals in the betting with previous experience but I didn't think the form was strong and the other Godolphin horse doesn't have any fancy entries whereas Dhahabi is in the Futurity Stakes. The Beckett horse was gelded and the obviously limits the targets for him long term.

I felt Dhahabi had to win this to justify the entry he holds and after drifting this morning he seems popular, Hopefully 2/1 beats SP, if not there may be a problem.

1.40 Newmarket Dhahabi 2/1
 
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At York Telecaster comes in after landing a French Group 3 nicely last time. The trainer has pitched him in at a sensible level here but my worry is that it was a weak contest at Longchamp last time. The fact that Telecaster was 8/15 Fav for that race tells its own story.

I did King Of Comedy last time as a sort of Last Chance Saloon for the tricky customer. His enthusiasm seemed lacking and he only ran on late after it was clear he was held from some way out.

I thought Elarqam was a massive lay last time. It was 12F and soft ground and he was never going to be suited by that. He can be frustrating and he's not the superstar he was once thought to have the potential to become but he is decent and I felt he was a fair play at 2/1 in what looks a moderate enough renewal.

2.40 York Elarqam 2/1
 
Evening/Morning

Will be looking to sponge a few winners but hopefully I can get some for myself too. I mentioned last weekend with hindsight that the Hannons went all the way up north with 3 runners and getting two winners at 10/1. Again I see he goes all the way to York with 2 runners which seems along way to go, 5.00 TRIBUTE TO JADE and I think his best chance, 5.35 BAY OF WHISPERS.

Hannon banging in the winners already with 3, just hope he still is come 5 o clock.