13:10 - Soldier On Parade
Another awful Juvenile Hurdle, in which we have an odds on favourite who is carrying a penalty. In the last five seasons horses who had won on Juvenile Hurdle debut and then run again in July are 2 wins from 8 runs, but in those beaten we've seen them short at 1/2, 4/9, 6/5, 5/4, 7/2 and 7//1. Its interesting to note that the only filly who has tried to follow up in the months of June, July or August lost under a penalty.
Hiconic is the favourite here, but the race she won the other week was awful, the jolly that day was badly impeded at the first, and then the second favourite was impeded by the same horse at the second. Hiconic was the most professional and made the best of the situation, but it didn't take much winning and I feel under a penalty that she is vulnerable to anything with a modicum of ability.
That is sort of the problem in this race, hardly any of this field have shown any ability, and that is why I side strongly with Soldier On Parade. He comes from a yard in good form, he has recent flat form that is very strong in relation to this field, and his sire has produced two winners from just six runners over hurdles so far. He showed that he stayed a trip on the flat and today I expect him to be up with the pace and to go and beat this field.
