Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

If Enable can catch Ghaiyyath on Sunday, the whole world will be up against it in the Arc, never mind Kameko.

I reckon if Enable performs badly this weekend they might retire her. Otherwise a win or going close will see her short for the Arc. Rather than back her against the potentially freakish Ghaiyyath on his day and at the shorter trip, I felt a bet at 6/1 for the Arc was better value.

It may be game over come Monday morning but I would rather lose at 6/1 than 6/5.

Arc De Triomphe Enable 6/1

 

Bit risky running Enable against that one over 10f, even more so on fast ground; mammoth task. If it's fast I would expect Gosden to take her out if he is looking after her.

 

Surely Magic Wand is in as a spoiler for Japan? If MW hussles up the front runner the the race could collapse late on with Japan and Enable likely to benefit.

 

I feel nervous just thinking about it

 

Good Good-Firm in places at Epsom at the moment and not a lot of rain forecast. That should help the dubious stayers slightly.

I see Aidan was having a gripe about the poor prize money in the Oaks and he is sending Peaceful to France for the Prix Diane with double the prize money instead of Epsom.

Your heart goes out to Aidan's owners who are having to scrape down the back of the couch for another tiara to sell to buy a loaf. Maybe the team should gang together and put the lot on Love in the Oaks? It's either that or start a Just Giving page to raise some funds. If I can find my tiny violin I will play "My heart pumps purple piss for you" non-stop on it for 24hrs and see if I can get the cash rolling in.

Monopolising the game and then moaning about prize money is pretty poor crack to my eyes. It also begs the question as to why they don't send Love to France for the bigger cash pot? Surely she has a better chance of landing it and the shorter trip should remove any question on being outstayed over the 12F. If money is the motivation, why not send your best filly?

 

O'Brien has said that he may send Santiago to the Goodwood Cup next. The possibility that he may go straight to the St Leger is also an option but they feel they may give him a go over 2 miles and he could clash with Stradivarius. That seems an odd choice of target for a colt who got a decent rating for landing the Irish Derby and you wouldn't think there was a lot for him to fear from the 3YO division if some of the ratings received are accurate.

It might be a fool's errand taking on Stradivarius but Santiago will get weight from the Champion.

 

Where is Enable 6/1?

 

Is it the final decs and draw for derby and oaks tomorrow

 

This years Derby has a surreal feel about it.With the traditional trial meetings at Chester and York being lost, trainers have struggled to find suitable prep races for their charges which means that this years renewal could be made for an upset.
Normally I would not entertain a horse that has run in an handicap - however this time I have made an exception. I have backed HIGHLAND CHIEF who won the golden gates handicap at the Royal meeting,that the horse scraped home by a half length does not tell the full story. Drawn out wide the horse slightly missed the break meaning that his rider had to take his medicine and for most of the race he was in the back two. This was the case approaching the run in which, at 2.5 furlongs, is one of the shortest in the country,yet such was his turn of pace he won going away having challenged widest of all.
For every positive there is a negative. Highland chief is far from straightforward he wears cheekpieces and has a tendency to lug left, this may have to do with the fact that his dam was sired by the talented,but temperamental Montjeu and it may be that he has inherited some of his traits. The other doubt may concern stamina, his sire Gleneagles never raced beyond a mile,however his dam was a consistent 12 furlong performer and the way he finished his Ascot race suggests he will stay. It is also possible that he needs good to soft ground which given the forecasts he may well get. So,at 16/1 he is a sporting bet.

 

Just some context, and if you read this in the RP then I don’t blame you for believing that he had a gripe. Just double entries is all it was, no need for Peaceful at Epsom when they have Love, therefore reroute to France. Sensationalist headlines by RP.

 

Welcome to the forum hammy

 

The rumours are that Tawkeel will not run in the Diane, Raabihah is the number 1 and Tawkeel will go for the Nassau instead. Both Raabihah and Alpine Star deserve their places at the top of the market, although Alpine Star is not certain to stay and Raabihahs form in the book isnt worth much for all she has looked high class. The form of Peacefuls Irish Guineas looks poor, the 3rd So Wonderful was thrashed by Know It All in a G3 today and Obriens record in the race is also a worry. There are a few interesting at bigger prices, Miss Extra has been supplemented after a G2 win over a mile but I dont think shes good enough, Solstica has looked half decent for Fabre but she was well beaten by Tawkeel in the Saint Alary.

The one I think is interesting and could be overpriced is Vadsena, she is currently the 33/1 outsider but I dont see that situation lasting, Soumillon has chosen her over Ebaiyra who was an easy G3 winner on the same day Vadsena was beaten and is currently half the price of Soumillons pick. Vadsena won two egg and spoon races comfortably and stepped up to decent company for the first time when dropping back to 9f in a listed race at Chantilly. She was held up and never really got a clear run until the race was over, she ran on well for 2nd and imo she was a certainty beat. The form of the race overall looks weak but the winner Wangari had previously given Tawkeel a serious run for her money, albeit Demuro was taking it a bit easy and was well on top by a neck at the end after getting serious with Tawkeel when he realised there was a challenger. That was a decent run from Wangari and I think both her and Vadsena were much better than the formbook says in this race, both had to wait for runs and Wangari got it first which decided the result, Soumillon was not hard on Vadsena and the step back up to 10f and likely stronger gallop should get to the bottom of the this filly. Whether that is good enough to win I dont know but I do think she stands out of the outsiders, she should be unbeaten and I think she has the class to run very well.

Prix De Diane - Vadsena 33/1

 

Interesting runner in relation to Wangari, Cleante runs tomorrow for Fabre and appears to be overlooked in the betting and on jockey bookings. She made her debut 5th in a decent maiden won by the Guineas 2nd Speak of the Devil, and stepped up on that when caught late by none other than Wangari on her 2nd start, Boudot started taking it easy thinking he had the race won but Wangari showed a smart turn of foot to come from last with the 2 of them pulling clear - race here. Cleante made her 3yo comeback in a 1m5 race which she won easily by 3L but it looks a very poor race and I think the drop back to 10.5f is more suitable for her, she is a half sister to the classy stayer Meandre but being by Muhaarar, I thought 1m5 might have been stretching her.

I did like the look of the favourite Renaissance Queen for this race but her form was let down badly by Deltas Royalty tonight at Kempton and having just noticed this form line im having an interest on Cleante at 8/1.

 

Tawkeel misses the Diane.

I can't say I was impressed with Raabihah last time even though she won by 4 lengths. It was only a Listed race and they looked slow fillies she beat over 11 furlongs and she drops back in trip here. Tawkeel won a Group 1 last time and slaughtered her field. It was over the Diane trip and I thought she looked much more likely to trouble the field in the Diane than Raabihah.

Rouget should know of course and Raabihah may have improved but I would be concerned for her taking on a filly like Alpine Star with her 1 mile pace. If the Harrington filly doesn't get home you would be trusting Rouget's obvious opinion about Raabinah but she is rated 4kg lower than Tawkeel, who had seemed to take a real step forward last time. The France Galop website shows Alpine Star a further 2 kg ahead of Raabinah and they have the Harrington filly 3.5 kg superior to Peaceful, whose form already took a kicking through So Wonderful.

Fancy Blue was behind Peaceful last time but I was surprised junior O'Brien ran her over 1m there because I thought she was crying out for further and her form at 7F and a mile last season wasn't very good looking back in retrospect. I thought the Irish Guineas on seasonal debut on good to firm ground was a very tall order and she may do better now with the extra couple of furlongs to cover. She still has enough to prove at 9/1 in another tough assignment and you cannot say that they are playing it patiently and gently with the daughter of Deep Impact.

I backed Solsticia in the Saint Alary last time and she was put in her place by Tawkeel there but prior to that had looked impressive in beating Ebaiyra by three lengths. That filly went on to win a Group 3 and her form there ties in with Raabihah through American Apples. Even of allowing for bumping into one in Tawkeel last time Solsticia still disappointed a bit in narrowly failing to secure second place. The fact that Tawkeel is deemed to have a lesser chance than Raabinah simply through her absence here also worries me but the fact remains that Solsticia won well the time before and you would not really be confident of Ebaiyra turning it round in their rematch, particularly with the Royer-Dupre filly dropping back from 12F here.

On balance, I felt Solsticia was worth another chance, given that she is rated 1kg behind Ebaiyra but finished 3 lengths ahead of her when they last met. 20/1 isn't a bad price on an Andre Fabre inmate, for all that it probably needs her to have had an off day last time in order to win this.

 

Jessica Harrington has made some odd calls this season. Albigna went to the Irish Guineas and came back sore after disappointing on ground described as too fast. She could have gone to Newmarket but Harrington sent a sprinter with no chance of staying and ironically the ground would have suited Albigna ideally. Alpine Star then looked as if she could have won either of the Irish or Newmarket Guineas but will now never win one and finds herself with a chance this week but with stamina to prove.

Cayenne Pepper was said to be needing a longer trip than any of Jessica's other fillies but rather than chance her in the Epsom Oaks she sent the filly to take on older fillies over 10F on seasonal debut. That was a massive ask against Magical but she did finish second and other than Love and Frankly Darling there is little to be worried about in having run against her own age group at Epsom.

Golden Maze ran in last weeks Irish Derby. Even Aidan didn't ask his runners there to turn out again a week later but Jessica Harrington has pitched Golden Maze in again in a tougher looking Derby. The colt is a rank outsider after failing to shed his maiden tag in the Irish version. Why run him again so soon, again out of his depth.

For all that Harrington is having success, you can't but wonder if she could be placing her horses better than she is doing?

 

No show from Cleante but Moon A Lisa ran well to be beaten a nose and was up in another stride or so, she was 5th beaten 3.5L in the Wangari/Vadsena race.

I see Gosden is running Mishriff in the Jockey Club, he must think that beating Volkan Star and Waldkonig 4L is top form

Jokes aside, he must have ran to 110+ there and that probably gives him a decent chance to place at least, I see the owners have questioned the favourites form. Volkan Star is now rated 106 and if you take that 4L beating over course and distance seriously then Mishriff is a big player.

 

I thought Renaissance Queen was a terrible bet today. She won a nothing race at Newmarket last time over 12F and was dropping in trip today. The runner up from her previous race was beaten at odds-on next time out (Only 5th) and the 3rd was beaten twice in Handicaps off 70, 2/5 Fav on latest occasion. The form was stinking and Renaissance Queen was going up to Listed class today with a dubious looking RPR of 81, yet she was favourite. That was a shooting fish in a bucket type of lay if there ever was one.

I though about backing Irksa today, as she did me a good turn a couple of runs back but I didn't think she was quite up to even a fairly weak looking Listed race. She ran well enough about a length back and anyone who fancies Ocean Atlantique may have been encouraged after he splatted her all over the Deauville track last time out.

I get the impression Ocean Atlantique may be a bit one-dimensional as a strong galloping colt who may be vulnerable to horses with a turn of foot. I would imagine they will not be hanging about with him and it should be a truly run affair.

Mishriff is 1kg ahead of Ocean Atlantique on the France Galop ratings but he was something of a surprise easy winner when stablemate Waldkonig flopped on their seasonal debuts. Mishriff had three late season runs, all on heavy ground last year and after not seemingly that at home on it the first twice, he came sailing through it like Donald Campbell on Lake Coniston in Bluebird, only with a happier ending as he won ten lengths. The Listed race Mishriff won was a mixed bag. Waldkonig was beaten as 4/9 favourite and we still need to see what Highest Ground does next time out. Cherokee Trail was 3rd in a Handicap off 94 next time and Al Aasy won an awful looking race at odds on next time. Volkan Star won a Listed Race but it was no more than a match race and I would be worried about assuming that Mark Johnston's Thunderous ran to 103 and by the same token whether Volkan Star is 106. Mishriff has an official rating of 109 and would need a bit more to win a French Derby you would think. I have a bad feeling about the form of Mishriff's impressive win and although you cannot rule Gosden out of much 7/1 doesn't appeal as an each-way bet from a value perspective.

Victor Ludorum was also available at 7/1 at one stage and typically it was just after I took 6/1. I thought he won the French 2000 in a comfortable manner. I was confident one he started picking up that day that he had it in control. The worry would be the extra distance and if he pulls too hard that might scupper his chance. Andre Fabre said that he has always felt Victor Ludorum was a Jockey Club colt and the horse never raced at less than a mile as a 2YO. The bigger concern may be that the trial and the French Guineas have not out very well but he did win the latter race in good enough style. There could be more to come yet and I feel the horse wasn;t 100% when he lost his unbeaten record.

Victor Ludorum has been pretty much unchanged at 2/1 for the French Derby for a long time now. I felt that was still a good bet. There are signs that money is coming for him and it wasn't really until late in the day that he was backed for the Guineas. Happy with 6/1 on him and he has a good chance of doing the double. I couldn't say I was confident because ante-post has a habit of kicking you in the balls at the last minute. I will never forget having Blue Point at 13/2 for the Al Quoz sprint and everything looked hunky dory only for the jockey to notice the horse was bleeding from a nostril as they were loading the stalls and he was withdrawn. Day of the race punters got their money back and I got SFA and that is not the football organisation.

 

A bit early for Classic Betting in 2021 and I have to say there are some silly bets available already.

The Derby and Oaks are really a no-no at this stage of any season but with the Covid-19 hiatus it is sad to see O'Brien's Battleground 16/1 for next year's Derby. That is awful value at this stage.

The Oaks betting is even worse. More Beautiful is 25/1 Favourite for the 12F race despite finishing mid division as a silly priced favourite for the 5F Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. Saints preserve us.

If I had to pick one now it would be Cadillac. The Jessica Harrington trained colt won a 7F Leopardstown maiden the other day and he came from behind to be pushed into the lead in the closing stages. He went away from his field and hit the line with NINE lengths in hand. He finished full of running and I would be amazed if he didn't get a mile. A son of Lope De Vega out of a Dansili mare, his dam never raced beyond 7F in a short career but she had a major setback in being trained by John Oxx, who has fallen to nothing for quite a while now. Her other progeny wasn't up to much but Cadillac lived up to his name on debut and even if he beat nothing he absolutely crucified them.

Cadillac earned a rating of 93 from the Racing Post and a Topspeed figure of 84. Even if they are only ball-park figures early doors, that rating would have seen him second to Battleground in the Chesham. The Topspeed figure is higher than the 81 awarded to Nando Parrado for winning the Coventry at the royal meeting. If Cadillac were trained by Aidan O'Brien he would probably be 12/1 for next year's Guineas. As it stands he is available at 33/1.

The downside is that trainer Jessica Harrington seems to do better with fillies and she also doesn't seem that fussed about going to Newmarket. Looking at some of her placing of her good horses leaves me puzzled at times.

Still, the way Cadillac did it was taking and he had to switch a bit to come past those in front. It wasn't blinding speed that won him the race but a sustained lengthening and drawing clear of his field. He seemed to have plenty left to give and it will be interesting to see where Harrington's Magical Mystery Tour Bus takes the son of Lope De Vega for his next start.

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/wat...e-irish-european-breeders-fund-auction-maiden

"He's got a big engine" Half the internet 1/7/2020

 

Early betting is up on bet365 for Epsoms races on Saturday @Grendel anything stand out for you?

 

I don't actually like Epsom as a track. Outside of the Derby, Oaks and a few other races it tends to be quite low quality fare and it's a quirky track. I knew a guy who swore by backing top weights at Epsom in handicaps but generally I found it to be tricky to pick winners there.

One horse who impressed me last time and went in as one to be on next time was Lazuli. I actually went against him last time because I felt Sunday Sovereign was a potentially fast horse and he was having his first start since joining Roger Varian. Sunday Sovereign disappointed me in the paddock that day and I was toying with switching but alas I let it ride and Lazuli bolted up. Lazuli runs in the Charge race at Sandown and he opened at 4/1 for that, so I had a few quid at that just because I vowed to be with him next time. When I was studying the race the opposition was headed by Art Power and Liberty Beach. Art Power hosed up at Royal Ascot in a handicap and Liberty Beach chased home Baattash. Art Power and Lazuli worked out virtually the same horse as Lazuli after both beat a horse called Keep Busy by the same three and a half length margin. Ratings are pretty tight here but my thinking was that Art Power and Lazuli had a bit more scope than Liberty Beach. Lazuli looked pretty speedy last time and I like his physique in terms of a sprinter. Crucially he has track and distance form and it looked like he may just be a 5F sprinter, rather than a 5/6 versatile type. I am not sure if Art Power is running now but at 11/4 or so Lazuli obviously makes a little less appeal than 4/1 but I reckon he will be tough to beat with a repeat showing.

I did Kameko in the Derby at 11/2 and I have an ante-post on Frankly Darling at 66/1. The latter is a small bet obviously. I lost my ante-post on Waldkonig in the Derby and on Cayenne Pepper and Fancy Blue in the Oaks. Fancy Blue runs in the French Oaks and I think the Irish Oaks is where Cayenne Pepper goes. Some people will feel I was foolish not doing Frankly Darling each way but ante-post it is just three places and a fifth of the odds, so I would rather do several runners at big odds win only to have more chance of a runner on the day and getting paid for the full value of the ante-post price. Non-runners and losers are part and parcel of betting big odds a long time before the race and it's just for fun to me.

One horse I will be trying on Saturday at Epsom is Love And Thunder

The Gosden trained filly is taking a big step up in class here and has a good but to find on ratings with Guineas runner Cloak Of Spirits. Sired by Siyouni, Love And Thunder was trained by Andre Fabre originally and lost by only a short head on her debut in France. Since joining Gosden she won a Novice race at Newbury in much better style than the margin and race report says. Always travelling strongly in behind that day she was shaken up and had the race in command despite wandering a bit in front. She really put them away and was tanking along before being eased late on. Value for a lot more, that race will have taught her a lot and I thought Cloak Of Sprits was disappointing last time. Fooraat also won a Novice that last time yet she is quarter the odds of Love And Thunder despite that race not working out. The Varian filly looks poor value to me.

Saturday 4.15 Epsom Love And Thunder 8/1

I thought she was potential value in a tricky little contest.

This was her win last time:-

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/wat...yal-ascot-special-ebf-fillies-novice-stakes-5