I will probably get found out to be completely wrong here, but these are my views on the first Jumps card of the season.
Paul Nicholls has an awesome course record (5 from 8 since 2010), but that is mainly due to the fact that he has had so few runners and they've run in novice/maiden or sellers. In handicaps the yard are 0 from 2 in that timescale, both beaten at relatively short prices (11/4 was biggest price). They send more to the course today than they normally send in a season, and I think that shows that today is more about limited opportunities rather than fancying runners at Southwell.
The course record is a double edge sword for punters, his horses are likely to be short, and I think they are likely to make a market for others. So when he gets trebles and the like, you can feel sorry or laugh at me!!
12:00 -
Nineohtwooneoh is favourite, albeit quite uneasy in the market, for the Nicholls yard. This horse is rated 104 over hurdles and comes into a novice handicap chase off that mark, and therefore with no p2p form, we don't know how well he is going to jump fences. Fame And Glory has had 2 winners from 6 runners in rules races over fences, so it will be interesting to see how he goes as a sire this season. I thought this horse had problems, and has also looked a difficult ride, so I think at the prices I have to be against him.
The problem with this race, as with many novice handicap chases, is that you've either got newcomers to fences or horses who have failed over fences. I don't like backing horses who have had difficulties with fences, so I am going to swerve Oxwich Bay and Zen Master. The former is 0 from 7 over fences and the latter 0 from 8, and both have made bad mistakes at fences in the past. Torquay is 0 from 3, and is open to more development than the other two, but I think two mares in this race are very interesting.
Tazka comes from the Gary Moore yard, and to me has always looked like a mare who could improve for switching to chases. She is by Network, who has had a good win ratio over fences from his progeny (19% with 145 winners), and whilst her form has dropped off since her handicap hurdle debut (off 114) she is probably well handicapped. If she gets supported in the market, then it would be wise to keep her on side.
Elle Est Grande is the other mare I like, she has plenty of size and scope and has shown in her short racing career that she has got potential to be a racehorse. She ran a really taking race at Ayr in a mares novice hurdle, and then on handicap hurdle debut she traded at 1.05 and somehow managed to finish 4th!! She needs to have strengthened up, and having time off will hopefully have done just that for her. She is a massive price and I think is worth a small nibble along with Tazka here.
13:10
The Greater Good would go off odds on here if all of his owners had just a pound on each (first owners group snipe of the season. Thousands more to come), but I am really put off this horse by the fact that it has had wind surgery and also a tongue tie is added. Tongue Tie and Wind Surgery first time for bumper horses on debut gives a massive 0 winners from 20 runners. Tongue Tie on debut is 41 from 488.
Sol De Mayo is the horse with form, but I would be disappointed if he didn't get beaten again here, given that he's been beaten in both of his bumpers so far, and by a long way last time out. A return to Aintree form would make him dangerous, but I would be against him as the second horse in the market.
I am obviously going to side with Fergals horses, with Ultimate Getaway being a horse that I like in the flesh, he is a nice sized son of Getaway who I think should be good enough to be competitive in a bumper before going hurdling over a further trip. I've not been to the yard since lockdown, so I don't know how he is going at home, but he is a nice horse who I expect to give Foxtrot Racing more success.
The other horse of Fergal's Lunar Sovereign is interesting too, given its much more flat racing bred and comes from Godolphin as a cast off. I am surprised to see him as big as he is in the market, even given that he has Conor Brace on. Fergal has run horses against each other in bumpers before (mainly at Cheltenham) and they normally finish in betting order, but that doesn't mean that this one hasn't got a chance. Watch in the market. He is a horse I can't remember from visits to the yard, so that is a positive for anyone who backs him.
