Not a good start to the day with two of my ante-post picks non-runners. More Beautiful always had the chance of going to the Queen Mary but I am assuming the soft ground has done for Wooded in the Commonwealth. More Beautiful is 25/1 favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas but I am not keen on horses who race more than once at 5F as a 2YO. We saw it last year with Raffle Prize and Millisle and I discarded them for the Guineas as sprinters. In the end both bombed out in the Guineas and the money for Raffle Prize proved a dud tocket as she trailed in last. Millisle is back out today and unsurprisingly dropped to 6F for the Commonwealth Cup. The same is true of Lope Y Fernandez for Aidan O'Brien. I was surprised they ran him in the Irish Guineas because to me he shaped like sprinting might be a better option. Trainer do seem obliged to give it a go in the Classics just to find out one way or the other and to me he clearly didn't stay. I had toyed with him ante-post at 16/1 but had he won the Irish Guineas that bet would have been buried before it started. I have to take a quarter of the odds now but I think he is the one to be with. Monarch Of Egypt ran well the other day and in the Irish 2000 Guineas he was well behind Lope Y Fernandez. The selection made eue catching headway that day but his run clearly petered out. I expect conditions today to be ideal and he can pounce to win at this shorter trip. Pierre Lapin has a bit to do first time up as does Golden Horde. Born With Pride was disappointing last time and the consensus seems to be that she can get back on track over the bigger stamina test today. I am not sure her earlier form stacks up as well as Peaceful's Irish Guineas win quite suggests and Born With Pride faces another half mile today. Berkshire Rocco was behing Derby favourite English King last time and will be fancied by some today. That race has not worked out thus far and neither has the Zetland Stakes that saw his 3rd place earn him a massive rating hike of 20 lbs. I feel Santiago can improve past the lot of them and prove a Cup prospect for the future. I decided it could be an O'Brien day and rowed in with Mother Earth in the Albany. She can be expected to improve after shaping well first time out. The winner had gone by the time Mother Earth got rolling but she stayed on best of the lot to take a clear second place. The slower ground should see her able to keep closer tabs today and the strong finish could prove vita. The daughter of Zoffany has substance about her and I expect her to be right there. 1.50 Mother Earth 10/3 3.35 Lope Y Fernandez 4/1 4.10 Santiago 4/1 In the Norfolk Stakes my old pal Lipizzaner runs but after two second places I have to leave him alone today. He was 7/1 on Monday and I can't get involved now at 10/3, He did finish ahead of Battleground last time ans the drop to 5F should suit but a horse beaten twice in maidens now in a Group 2 just doesn't seem value as damn near favourite. I'll stick him in a £1 roll up with the other 3 just in case O'Brien does have a monster day.
Yes indeed, good performance by the winner. Not disappointed with Undertake's run at all. W ell-up there all the way and just lost a podium place to finish 4th! So. we press on!
Dandalla fairly bolted up there. If she was trained by O'Brien she would be favourite for the Guineas after that. Again, Mother Earth was never quite going the pace early and she had a bit of a job getting a clear run through when she was staying on. She was neber going to trouble the winner though, who looks a big sprinting type. I felt Aidan would have take More Beautiful here, as a faster type stepping up in trip but not sure she could have coped with today's winner anyway. As is is Aidan has left her at 5F in the Queen Mary and she will face even faster types there. Aidan has never trained the winner of the Queen Mary and perhaps he is trying to get that Monkey off his back but I keep looking at the list of Queen Mary winners and see only Attraction as the only cuckoo in a nest of Sprinters.
Lovely boost for Creative Force in the Coventry tomorrow, take the 7s, wont last, that maiden looks hot form.
Could be. Let's see where she goes next; I don't want to be following her off a cliff all season, but she didn't run a bad race and the winner didn't allow anything else a chance today really.
Wards horse looked like he wasnt for catching but The Lir Jet was relentless, very good performance and he could go up to 6f no problem. I thought Wards filly tomorrow Campanelle in the Queen Mary was his best chance and have backed her so good see his running a blinder here.
So then. A Derby winner in a Gp2, at level weights. Yes, okay, he hasn't won since the Derby, but that's why he's odds against. The ground is a concern, but so it is for almost every runner in every race really.
Pretty grim day for O'Brien. He seemed to have plenty of chances today but diddly squat so far. That's what happens when I back his. Every one of his I have been against has won I think. Golden Horde was impressive there and I thought he was up against it on seasonal debut, so extra credit for that. Aodan's just didn't run like Sprinters and Lope Y Fernandez was pretty feeble there. It didn't say much for Siskin's form. Millisle wasn't too bad and I am sure she will stay at 6F and perhaps have her sights lowered slightly. Pierre Lapin was woeful and this had looked an ever tougher ask for him than Golden Horde, who had at least been mixing it in top company last season. I had backed Golden Horde when he won the Richmond at Goodwood last season but I honestly felt he had a tough task first time out. Some of Aidan's have looked like they haven't appreciated the quick turnaround from the Irish Guineas meetings and that may be a negative for Admiral Nelson in the Coventry tomorrow. Anthony Van Dyck was pretty hopeless earlier in the day and Defoe turned it around with him from their runs behind Ghaiyyath last time. More sensibly ridden today but Defoe just doesn't look like a 117 rated horse. Horses rated 109 and 110 have finished ahead of him today and a horse rated 108 was only half a length behind him. I would suggest a drop to 115 is due with immediate effect. Anthony Van Dyck going up 3 lbs to 121 for picking up the pieces after the detritus faded behind Ghaiyyath is the biggest load of Handicapping bollocks I have seen in years. Even his previous 118 mark had looked generous.
