I'm not really into the numbers churned out by the rating systems as some others, but they certainly have a place in racing. It saves the punter hours of homework. But they really need to be seen for what they are, just a rough guide to past form. I have to admit that the amount of faith I have in them falls way below most UK punters. I'm sure someone with time and effort could blow huge holes in the a lot of the ratings published. That said tough, we could do that on any subject. We only have to look at the any race on any program to see how often the predictions fall short. Have a quick peek at a race map before they jump, and you'll often find the race positions in transit are all over the place. And this should be one of the more simple things with which to deal. With so much volatility built into all parts of the complex systems, it now seems like the companies are trading more on reputation than results. I think a decent QC, armed with a backroom full of advisers, could shred the credibility of the ratings systems in a court of law.
I'm sure they could Cyc. The most reliable form information is the clock; and with all the different tracks, going etc that isn't reliable. What it tells you is that the horse can get from A to B in a certain time on a certain course under certain conditions. Combine that with how the race was run, and how easily the horse won, and you have something to go on before you start applying all the other factors (eg stable in/out of form, draw, ideal conditions, right jockey etc etc). It's pretty straight forward
I doubt they would run Mogul after that effort. I can't see Epsom suiting him. If Aidan does send him it can only be because he has no sort of hand to play anything else with. . Frankly Darling did all you ask. I don't think it was a strong Ribblesdale but she was visually impressive after being quite lonely out in front and she's a player for sure, with only Love really to be concerned about. Quadrilateral was disappointing in the Guineas I felt and although another 2F might suit her I am not sure she wants 12F. She has a fair bit to make up with Love from the Guineas and if anything Love finished that race off the more strongly. I mentioned Frankly Darling in the opening post of this thread as looking like a colossal price at 66/1. So hopefully my tiny bet at those odds can somehow be landed.
Albigna is said to be heading for the Falmouth next. Connections felt the fast going was probably to blame for a slightly below par effort in the Irish Guineas. I have to disagree that a stone short is "Slightly" below par. The Racing Manager to the owners said it was unlikely she would step up in trip for an Oaks race.
Dettori on English King. Never really liked this sort of thing when it happened with Piggott. Hope Marquand gets a decent mount.
Harsh on Marquand but cant say I blame them, this isnt an Australian Group 1. Interesting race on Wednesday at Haydock, Waldkonig vs Highest Ground at 10f, Highest Ground would need to win impressively if hes going to enter the Derby picture, Stoute has obviously given him as much time as possible but could be another Ulysses story where the Derby just comes too soon for him. Looks like it will be English King - Dettori Kameko - Murphy Military March - Buick Whatever Moore rides for Ballydoyle will be 4th choice, presumably Mogul, and possibly Highest Ground creeping into the picture as 5th choice if he does the business on Wednesday. Unless Highest Ground wins by 15L and Moore tells Ballydoyle to do one
Ladbrokes have Waldkonig at 16/1 for the Derby despite John Gosden saying that he was never going to be a Derby horse. The trainer said after his defeat last time:- "We're not even thinking about Epsom after that and he won't be going further than a mile and a quarter in future." You would think that there is very little chance of him or Highest Ground going from an egg and spoon Class 5 Novice into the furnace of a Derby shortly afterwards. It would be madness to take a leap like that with a horse and you really have to question the wisdom of attempting that. It is fairly obvious that Waldkonig is a flop. To go from a Class 1 Listed race last time, down to a Class 5 Novice for the next race is like waving the white flag of surrender on the horse's ambitions. Likewise, Stoute going from a Class 3 Novice last season, to two grades lower at Class 5, hardly suggests he feels the horse is ready to have the gun put to his head. The colt does also have an entry in a Listed race at Newmarket but that is a tougher heat where he is only 4th in the betting at 5/1. The Haydock race is more or less a match with Waldkonig. The Racing Post Ratings have Highest Ground needing 16 lbs to catch Waldkonig up and if we were to call the remainder of the entries "trees" it would be insulting to the woodlands of the United Kingdom. One of the entries is a 4YO who has been beaten a total of 271 lengths in his three flat races to date. He has a Racing Post best rating of 17 but somehow the Official Handicapper has seen some spark of potential and awarded him a rating of 28. Oh, he has to give Waldkonig 5 lbs as well and would be meeting him on 78 lbs better terms if it was a Handicap on Wednesday. I reckon I would be embarrassed to put my horse up against such rivals after having entered him in the Derby last year but hey ho. The Derby looks a terrible quality renewal. I hope Kameko or Military March win it, just to see the Guineas form bring some respectability to the race. I would be going in heavy on Kameko but I just don't see any evidence that he will stay. Military March has ground to make up from the Guineas and has a better prospect of staying on pedigree but I have a nagging suspicion 10F just might be his ideal trip. The right horses chased Palace Pier home in the St James Palace and I am tempted to take 5/1 on Kameko in the belief that he is a smaller type of colt who should suit a hold up ride at Epsom before striking late. He will need to come there swinging though because if push comes to shove it is hard to see him grinding out a win in a sustained duel. English King at 5/2 and 3/1 is making me shake my head. I feel he beat boats at Lingfield and he will have much faster horses waiting to play their hands this time.
Waldkonig is rated 101 so hes a decent yardstick, if Highest Ground was able to beat him easily they would surely have to consider the Derby given how thin on quality it looks this season. They ran Ulysses after he had only won a maiden and while it came too soon for him, it didnt stop him winning at Goodwood and going on to be a top class 4yo. If the horse is good enough you can take big steps up like we saw with Palace Pier but as it stands, Highest Ground has only won a bad maiden, we will find out more about him against Waldkonig who should be more at home on the flatter track.
I played Santiago in the Vase at Royal Ascot and went in for the St Leger at 12/1 in the aftermath. That seemed the best performance with the Leger in mind that I have seen this year. The Irish Handicapper raised Santiago 17 lbs to 111 for his win and that is more than plenty at this stage of the year to be considered for the St Leger. For comparison you could look at English King being favourite for the Derby but only rated 1 lb higher on 112 for now. I suppose if Aidan's hand is weak for Epsom he may be tempted to run Santiago there but he would have to drop back in trip and I don't seem to recall that path working out very often. Russian Emperor also got a 111 rating but I am not convinced that rating will prove accurate in the fullness of time. You couldn't blame connections for looking and thinking that they only have a pound to find with the favourite but if any of the Guineas horses stay I reckon there is a log jam of horses who would not be good enough to win an average Derby. Anyway, there are a couple of bits of 8/1 left on Santiago but he is generally shaping as the 6/1 Fav on most lists now, If Frankly Darling were to win the Oaks I doubt she would head to the Leger and Derby winners don't tend to go there so I feel 12/1 Santiago was a decent play at this stage.
The favourites for the Derby and Leger have beaten Berkshire Rocco a couple of lengths each, they will be hoping the Balding horse is a bit better than his 104 rating.
Looking at those four winners, Masar went into the Derby rated 117 after being 3rd in the 2000 Guineas. As a winner of the previous year's Solario and a NINE length winner of the Craven, I can't agree he wasn't setting the world alight. My two problems in that Derby were his chances of staying the trip and the memory of an awful run in Meydan where his Racing Post Rating for the race was 22. He is probably the flukiest winner Godolphin ever had after sending him to that **** showing on the sand. The other winners had more questionable form. Anthony Van Dyck had seemed exposed and also had a question on stamina. Harzand also looked to lack a bit of form and had looked more of a St Leger type. The Dermot Weld runner got some cut in the ground on Derby day though and managed to beat a horse who had not run as a 2YO in a close finish. Weld later dropped Harzand to 10F in the Irish Champion but got his answer when the colt was no part of it and the story was similar in the Arc. Almost certainly overrated for his Derby win. Wings Of Eagles was a real shocker and I still feel I should have collected that year with Cracksman ante-post at 14/1. It never happened though and the clear best horse to have run in that year's Epsom Derby didn't win. Looking at them collectively Wings Of Eagles and Anthony Van Dyck were trained by a master and Harzand by a legend, Dermot Weld. Masar was trained at one of the most potent stables in the world for a huge operation. No disrespect to Ed Walker but he hasn't got a CV approaching that of the others and doesn't get the money thrown at him that the others do. Of more importance is the fact that Wings Of Eagles was 40/1, Harzand and Anthony Van Dyck both opened at 8/1 for the Derby and Masar was returned 16/1. When looking at English King we see a horse a fifth of the odds of a runaway Craven winner and Guineas third. Value of the odds of 3/1 have to be considered. I was on Saxon King at 25/1 for the Derby and 20/1 for the 2000 Guineas in Masar's year and although he won the shorter race and went off 4/5 for the Derby I wasn't confident at all on Derby Day and thought the odds were ridiculous. He never really looked like winning that Derby. Looking back at Masar there are similarities in the stamina indices on the two sides of the pedigree to those of both Kameko and Military March. That gives some hope that the horses who were 1st and 4th in the Guineas can perhaps defy the pedigree. Golden Horn was the obvious other winner to have had questions on stamina and similar sub 10F stamina indices of both sides of the pedigree. I remember filling my boots on Golden Horn at 3/1 for the Derby after he had swatted Jack Hobbs in the Dante and I just cannot get enthused about English King at the same price I am afraid. I decided to take a chance on Kameko's stamina and played at 11/2 for the Derby. I cannot see a Guineas winner being allowed to go off at that price on Derby Day. English King is heading towards 5/2 now and less that half the odds of a Guineas winner is crazy. The value elsewhere on horses like Mogul, Russian Emperor and Vatican City is just madness. The overall book looks appalling value and I must calculate the % later. One Dream, One Goal, there can be only one. Kameko 11/2 (William Hill) Hopefully it is a Kind Of Magic.
Military March doesnt have a pedigree that needs defying and will stay, Kameko does and wont hth rumours that Military March is out of the race anyway
Benoit, You are GOOD but remember, you are not GOD. I see Paddy Power go 1/3 Waldkonig tomorrow and 2/1 Highest Ground. The others are merely running to provide reference for a new Government directive on safe social distancing for horses. Assuming that defeat means no Derby for Highest Ground his odds of 2/1 mean that it is a likelihood of 67 % that he won't be in the Epsom line up. I see Miltary March at 7/1 in a few places. That seems worrying. One can only assume that a setback would keep him out of the race. I notice Santiago is 3/1 Fav for the Irish Derby. It would be just my luck if he turned out to be too good for the Leger in a crazy year.
Whilst I agree that the value for English King has long gone, the point I was trying to make (or rather implying) was that several horses have won the Derby and, in so doing, have acquired a rating well in excess of the rating they had after their pre Derby run. This would indicate that ratings are based purely on what horses they have beaten and by how far. The assessors have no idea what the horses are actually capable of. When you think about it, if you had a horse that you were fairly confident could win the Derby, what would your priority be: to give it as easy prep as you could and maybe not acquire a high OR/RPR because you only beat donkeys by 2l or whatever, or try to achieve a high OR/RPR. English King may not have the form to win a Derby but that doesn't mean he isn't good enough to do so. Previous winners have proven that. There is no doubting he is an inexperienced, improving horse who has shown he can perform on an Epsom like track, stay the 12f and act on good to firm ground (in a fast time). Frankie Dettori must have seen something to bag the ride. The odds have no bearing on what he is capable of; they merely reflect what the punters think and the bookies' unwillingness to lay him at higher odds. Unfortunately the combination of those 2 do tend to make him poor value from a betting perspective now; but I'm sure those sitting on tickets of 20/1 are quite happy. I'm sure if he comes stone last there will be a few having a good laugh at the ridiculous odds etc. If he wins I won't say a thing; honest
