Mohather attracting lots of support in the 13.50. Front two drifting slightly. Not much else getting backed.
1.10 Darrik 6/1 ew (backed a few days ago + saver on Firmament 20/1 1.50 Mustaharry 14/1 (WH ew 5 places) 2.25 Franklie Darling 7/4 3.00 King power horse 3.35 Glass Slippers 9/1 (antepost) 4.10 Jubiloso 5/1 (Grinthorpe gave it as his NAP on friday evening) 4.40 Summer Moon 12/1 ew NAP
Without the usual Pomp and Circumstance, the reorganised ‘Royal’ Ascot still appears to offer punters their best chance of turning a profit on the first day. Those that like to pile into odds-on shots will be all over Battaash in the King’s Stand because his old conqueror Blue Point is gone. His main opponent appears to be Abbaye winner Glass Slippers if she has improved over the winter. I would consider the track to be a negative for Battaash but he has won at Sandown and Chantilly, so it does not have to be flat or downhill and a repeat of last year’s effort ought to win it. Normally referred to as the Ascot Derby, the King Edward VII this year appears to be a Derby trial. Centre of attention will be the two Ballydoyle contenders, with Futurity disappointment Mogul looking to show that was down to the Tapeta surface and he should be judged on his previous Group 2 win. Arthur’s Kingdom was a respectable second at Saint Cloud (Sound Of Cannons behind) and also only has four races under his belt. It is difficult to gauge Pap Power making his turf debut here but will Sylvestre de Sousa be trying to make all, a tactic that has been successful the last twice? Mohican Heights also goes in the ‘could be anything’ category, unbeaten in two starts, most recently a listed mile event. It may not be the first race, but the Queen Anne does at least offer a choice of seasoned veterans with form in the book albeit with fitness to be taken on trust in many cases. The form pick here looks to be Circus Maximus, winner of last year’s St James’s Palace (Skardu fourth, Fox Champion seventh) and Moulin before finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, ahead of Space Traveller. Mustashry looks a bit short of what is required at this level having disappointed in this race last year after winning the Lockinge and it will be some achievement if Sir Michael gets any more out of a seven year old. The mare Billesdon Brook was a shock winner of the 1000 Guineas two years ago but although she strips fit after a warm-up race, she is likely to struggle against the boys as she was well beaten in last year’s Lockinge. Fox Champion will have to have improved as his last win was in April 2019 and his best form was third in the Prix Jean Prat. Oisin Murphy is an interesting booking for French raider Plumatic but the balance of his form suggests that he will need to step up on his seasonal pipe-opener at Chantilly if he is going to trouble the judge. Roseman won a listed race on heavy ground last time, so would need to progress substantially to challenge here. Mohaather scored a hat-trick with a pair of Group 3s at Newbury but has had his issues and never got into the QEII last year on heavy ground but on a strict line through Happy Power his form could be as good as Duke Of Hazzard. Duke Of Hazzard is not quite a good old boy never meaning no harm but he will have to step up again on last year’s form and three of his five career wins have been at Goodwood and two of his defeats at this meeting. His latest win was in a bunch finish to the Celebration Mile, and the beaten favourite that day Skardu is back looking to make up just over a length and a half. How Dahlia winner Terebellum fares in the Queen Anne will influence the market for the Duke of Cambridge with runner up Queen Power and third Magic Lily dropping to a mile here. Queen Power is back at a mile after four good efforts at further and who would argue with her trainer? I am going to give MAGIC LILY another chance as she won over a mile at Meydan and was not beaten far by Laurens in the Fillies’ Mile as a juvenile. Nazeef comes from a yard bang in form and that is why she heads the market as her All Weather win last time could be boosted in the Queen Anne by Billesdon Brook but she did have Posted, Agincourt and Iconic Choice behind that day. If she strips fit, last year’s Coronation third Jubiloso is good enough to win this on that form but she was subsequently behind Billesdon Brook in a Group 3. Miss O Connor comes here unbeaten but all her form is on soft ground so Mr Haggas may be doing a rain dance.
I thought Mogul ran ok at Newcastle. After all he bumped in to the guineas winner and was only mugged for second late on. Going to love the step up in distance. He is my idea of the Derby winner so hoping to see a good performance today
1.15 i like the look of KAESO with Oisin Murphy on board. KEYSER SOZE good each way bet as well as Firmament 1.50 MOHAATHER each way in a wide open race. Don't discount Accidental Agent at a huge price! 2.25 I was quite taken by MISS YODA in the Oaks Trial and she has a chance against the favvourite 3.00 MOGUL 3.35 BATTAASH. Tis Marvellous each way at a big price 4.10 A race between the market leaders JUBILOSO and NAZEEF the performance of Billesdon Brook in the Queen Anne might be informative regarding Nazeef 4.40 Havent got a clue. will see how the market looks later
I’m now thinking Circus Maximus is drifting due to lack of stable confidence, though it could just be that he was too short this morning. Still, where are “the boys”, and where is their money? Not on course, obviously. Well, obviously. Which brings me to the question, with no on course market, how are the SPs arrived at?
especially pertinent given the enhanced place terms from online bookmakers. It’ll be very interesting to see market % post races.
Todays darts in a tricky looking week ahead Cliffs of Capri / Shelir Ew Mohaather Frankly Darling Mogul Battash Juboliso Summer Moon Ew
I haven't a clue with today's races but just for interest 13:15 Have to go with Frankie for the opener Daarik saver on Mutamaasik (love to see Crowley on the wrong one) 13:50 Roseman ew 14:25 Frankly Darling 15:00 Mogul (should be a formality but if he is beaten we may have a new fav for the Derby ? Mohican Heights) 15:35 Taking on Battaash with Glass Slippers now there is give in the ground 16:10 Invitational ew 16:40 Rochester House ew
