Daily Racing Thread Saturday 13th. June 2020

I did Albigna ante-post for this race. The 2/1 was not a big price but I felt that Love, Millisle and others in the betting would be running in the Newmarket Guineas and would not turn up in the Irish version. Those fillies dropped out as expected and I got a bonus when Harrington decided not to run Alpine Star, who was the second highest rated filly in the race. The plan went well, yet I was looking yesterday and saw that Albigna was still available at the same 2/1 odds I took ante-post, so all that risk for no reward in the odds. I felt compelled to double my bet given the make up of this race.

Peaceful has looked Aidan's best shot since betting first opened on the race. She looked the filly most likely to come here, rather than travel to Newmarket. By wonder sire Galileo, she came forward a huge amount from a moderate debut to slam her field by 7 lengths in a maiden next time out and then finished 2nd in a Listed race on her final start of the season. That was the Montrose Stakes and although Run Wild came out of that race to run away with the Pretty Polly recently, the winner Born With Pride was a huge flop next time and the other fillies who have run since managed to stink the place out with unplaced efforts. Peaceful needs more now to win a Classic and she is rated behind stablemate So Wonderful for now.

So Wonderful has some excellent placed form but is still a maiden after eight starts. To be fair to the filly, she was very highly tried at times and only ran in maiden races twice. By War Front, rather than the magic Galileo it would be easy enough to make a case for So Wonderful each-way four places at 9/1 based on her best placed efforts from last season and the fact that she is 8 lbs higher than Peaceful on current official ratings.

Soul Search is a similar candidate to So Wonderful, in that she is a maiden with useful placed form. Her OR of 106 is also in advance of Peaceful thus far and Ger Lyons' filly is a massive 33/1, some 30 pts higher than the second favourite for today's race. Perhaps a bad sign is that the money is for Ger's other filly Roca Roma, who is 10/1 from 16/1. Runner up on her only start, that race hasn't looked great thus far and the Australia filly faces very much faster ground today. I can not help conclude that So Wonderful is a better bet at only one point less of a price. Roca Roma comes in with 25 lbs to find with So Wonderful on Racing Post Ratings and although she is much less exposed that is still a long chalk to make up pitched into a Group 1 on only her second start. Ger also saddles Even So and she is open to further progress but needs to fins more than a stone and was beaten at odds-on in a Group 3 last time. Ger is getting as bad as Aidan for going in mob-handed by the look of this race.

Fancy Blue is unbeaten and was backed early doors for this race. A New Dawn did nothing for her form in a Listed race win when she was down the field the oter day after running Fancy Blue close prior to that. I though Donnacha's filly would benefit from stepping up to 10F and this could be sharp for her today. Very weak in today's betting I feel the young trainer has sent her into the furnace a bit too early and she will need to be quite special to win this today. Again, So Wonderful appeals more at the same

Ridenza made a good start to her career but I am assuming there was a problem that meant we didn't see her again and it is now 10 months since she was last on the racecourse.

The more I look at the race, the more I feel Albigna should be winning it. Her Boussac win stands out by a fair way. The Breeders Cup trip was the owner's pet ptoject and the filly ran well enough on the greyhound track that was never going to suit. The jockey has said that Albigna is quirky but that she is good when she puts it all together. I had expected her to be nearer evens on the day and didn't know how to feel when seeing her at 2/1 last night. Maybe it was a honey trap but I'm in again now and have to hope the filly can deny what seemed like a complete lack of support despite the bigger names dropping out.


In the 5.10 Race I felt Aidan had a poor looking hand. Salsa was hopeless last year in compiling a 666 form line. Snow was also disappointing. Ger Lyons' Thunder Kiss has been backed but has not raced yet. Perhaps Siskin fever is behind the positive vibes for the trainer's runners. I thought that normal prgress from Florence Camille could see her win this. The Galileo filly was 3rd on debut and her RPR of 80 for that effort is top of those with figures so far, with Snow and Salso just on 62 and 69 for now.

I though Florence Camille was the bet at 7/2. Trainer Dermot Weld is 0/14 currently but he has been running some real outsiders amongst those.

5.10 Curragh Florence Camille 7/2

7.15 Curragh Albigna 2/1 ante-post and again last night.

 

Sunday Sovereign looked a very fast 2YO last season. I was on ante-post for the Norfolk Stakes but he seemed to flounder that day. A'Ali won tht race but I was not convinced by that colt and he was disappointing the other day and now misses Royal Ascot.

The deal going into last year's Royal meeting was that Sunday Sovereign would stay with the then trainer if he won but would be transferred if he was beaten. That meant that the colt switched to Roger Varian after his below par effort in the Norfolk. It is hard for me to shake the memory of Sunday Sovereign pumping Arizona by three lengths in a Curragh maiden and he remains with potential if he has trained on and it looks like Varian has taken his time with the colt.

To make up the double I fired in King Of Comedy, who is seen as a rogue but has talent on his day. Maybe he'll have mellowed with age abd the going was all against him anyway when acting up when last seen.


2.40 Sandown Sunday Sovereign 7/4
3.35 Newbury King Of Comedy 13/8

Win double.

 

Albigna too short (now best price 13/8). Looking for a price I'm going with New York Girl place bet at 14/1. By New Approach out of a Giant's Causway mare, the pedigree appeals, she is lightly raced. Won G3 unexpectedly in heavy ground on second outing. Should have come on for that and hoping she can run into a place

 

Early signs are it's going to be one of those days again

 

Just switched on ITV4, first thing I see is a close up of Matt Chapman's gurning mug. Nearly turned straight off.


Seldom if ever do I bet in sprints, but Sunday Sovereign is a false favourite if I ever saw one. Dream Shot, on the other hand, looks massively overpriced.

 

sandown,2 05:

ASCENSION and tomfre have already met last season,in 1st and 4th respectively,and i expect the varian colt to hold up the form today,because hes been left on the same mark here.still unexposed enough to make his mark this season.

 

Dear me I think my luck has ran out

 

Hmmmm.. Edraak one of the first beaten, went out like a light. Sorry folks, that was the extra stone I put on him

 

Impressive from Lazuli there. He looks a sprinter to follow. Sunday Sovereign didn't look the part today. He pulled too hard and was beaten in two strides. He hasn't trained on by the look of it and sending him to Roger Varian has not panned out. This was a feeble effort and his career looks over.

 

I did warn you about Edraak, must have been the weight of my bet

 

Lovely run Franconia

 

Well done Franconia backers she looks good

 

I put up Been Studying Her on the undercard at the Breeders Cup last season and I think shes a good bet again tonight, shes been beaten in 3 runs since but ran an eye catching comeback race when 3rd over 6f, had a lot of ground to make up and stayed on nicely, the extra half furlong suits her and I think this is an easier race. Shes 9/4 and I think you are only getting that because the names Bob Baffert and Mike Smith in opposition, id make her 5/4.

2nd last race at Santa Anita tonight

 

Won well but the second horse looked woefully one paced. Some disappointing runs in behind too. It'll be interesting to see where they go with her.

 

shout

 

Booooooommm!!

 

Nap landed, lovely ride from Doyle who I tore apart the other day

Had a post with reasoning wrote out last night but decided not to post it for the holocaust believers, everything fell in place for him today.

good ebening

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PUT IT UP OR KEEP IT SHUT!!!!

 

Great shout

 

I had it wrote out and decided not to bother posting, couldnt resist winding a few up after the fact tho

been on the right side of the prices today but had nothing until that

Puerto Banus 17/2 > 9/2
Oriental Mystique 10/1 > 7/2
Exec Chef 5/1 > 2/1

Mug favs won all 3

On Silk Forrest 4/1 in the last at the Curragh, now 2/1 so Magic Wand will probably canter it.