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Daily Racing Thread Monday 1st. June 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, May 30, 2020.

  1. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    So here are a few early thoughts/questions for tomorrow, no selections or anything at the minute.

    13:00 - Race looks to have very little pace in it. Front runners might get an easy thing of it. Who front runs? Stone Mason and Heavenly Tale are both dropping in trip for their handicap debuts, and both run for new trainers.

    I would guess that Heavenly Tale will be ridden prominently, given she looked very one paced in her last run for Ralf. She was owned by Qatar, so its no surprise to see them let her go, and she might be one to progress this year for a yard that is pretty shrewd. The yard are 1 from 12 with first time out runners joining from other yards.

    Stone Mason comes from a yard who do very well with horses first time for the trainer (68 from 365) and he does fit into a betting strategy because of that. He is owned by the horsewatchers who are pretty shrewd, and it looks as if the market has found him as the favourite. He ran well on his four qualifying runs and now goes handicapping off a decent looking mark for a new yard.

    Ghaddbaan caught my eye to a degree last time, and comes here off the back of two qualifying runs (is this a route that is going to be profitable I wonder) and is obviously a horse they hope will improve for racing, given that he has been on track for such a limited amount of runs so far. He is a big unit of a horse, and it could be that he wasn't fully tuned up when making stable debut earlier in the season. If he is strong in the market it would be very interesting.

    The one that caught my eye for the place market is Curfewed who is drawn in the middle to high, has been pretty consistent at the course and can go well again. However I am slightly concerned about fitness of runners from that yard (8 from 256 winners, 36 placed after >50 days off)

    13:35 - on the book it looks a one horse race with Mutaasamy being that horse, however again the race doesn't seem to have a lot of early pace in it, and could that cause problems for the favourite? Varian is 28 from 125 with runners at Newcastle on the all weather, which is a pretty decent record, but the expected winners is 30 from those horses and their odds. He is 7 from 25 with runners here that have been off for more than 50 days, so perhaps it is a promising statistic for this runner on his return from 300 days off. He is drawn in the correct part of the course and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the front four from the start.

    Should he be as short as he is currently? I had him priced up at 5/4 so I think the market is wrong.

    3:20 - This is an interesting heat, and one that I like a few runners in. The key here is that we look to have more front runners and a very tightly grouped field in terms of handicap marks. The three on my radar are Tathmeen, Yousini and Wild Edric, all drawn high and all racing from off the pace. So I doubt we will see all three getting a clear run, I do think all three are feasibly treated in the handicap and have form that suggests that they could go well here.

    4:30 - A decent pace should be had here too, and that again should help those horses who are held up, Be Proud is one of those but I didn't like his effort last time out and my eyes are drawn to Requinto Dawn who ran an interesting race last time before coming down with a furlong to go. He is drawn high which means that he will need to get a good ride to get the gaps, but he could easily be a horse who can run a good race in a competitive handicap.

    5:05 - Race of the day, Stoute and Gosden bring runners up and that makes it a very interesting market. I think the market has this wrong, but if either of those gets punted further, we might see a decent bet in here. Will come back to this one tomorrow afternoon!
     
    #21
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  2. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    I think Mutadel could be the first winner after the restart for british racing. Has been running well at Newcastle in the past and is 1lb below last winning mark. Paul Mulrennan often rides well at this track. Seems to be overpriced at 25/1.
     
    #22
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  3. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    Evening. Hope we are all well <ok>

    Bond's Boy 2.10 Newcastle

    Oakenshield 3.55 Newcastle

    Good Tidings 5.05 Newcastle

    Dream With Me 5.40 Newcastle

    Think Victor Ludorum (NAP) is a cert in the French 2000 Guineas. Don't fancy Tropbeau at all for the 1000 and have gone for Simeen

    Good luck :emoticon-0148-yes:<cheers>
     
    #23
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  4. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I quite like the one Nass is passing over in the first, HEAVENLY TALE (5/1). She looked ok on debut but never really backed it up after that. She drops back to a mile and on pedigree you would think that should suit. They paid 140,000 for her as a foal and as Nass stated have offloaded her for 10k. I think she could easily be a 70-80 animal looking through her line and whilst those Qatari boys are not interested in that sort of animal it does mean she could be well in off 63. The yard do well with castoffs and I agree with Nass that it is very possible that they might try to make all.
     
    #24
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  5. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    talking about horses again , feels weird ?
     
    #25
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  6. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    My attempt for what its worth:

    1:00 - Curfewed 12/1 & My Boy Lewis 22/1 both EW
    3:20 - Heath Charnock 4/1 Win
    3:55 - Iva Reflection 16/1 EW
    4:30 - Bhangra 15/2 Win
    5:05 - December Second 9/1 EW
    6:15 - Harbour Of Grace 25/1 EW

    Small win double on the 3:20 & 4:30 selections.

    In the French Guineas i'm on Alson 9/2 & Marieta 10/1
     
    #26
  7. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Morning

    Hope this UK Horse Racing takes off....

    6.15 Newcastle-Wise Glory @ 11-4 [Bet 365]
     
    #27
  8. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Newcastle 1.35 Cote D'Azur

    Was beaten by a short head last run over course and distance. 2nd run at Newcastle better than finishing position suggests when not far away in 5th over shorter(7 f). There was market support on last 2 starts so shouldn't be written off with reduced mark today.
     
    #28
  9. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Usually avoid midweek racing but having been starved of U.K racing action for months I backed Zoran today and looks like there is money about for him.

    Newcastle 6.15pm Zoran 14/1 each way.
     
    #29
  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    In the 5.40 Newcastle I am hoping Frankly Darling wins well. I have had a tiny bet on her at 66/1 for the Oaks. The Gosden filly made an encouraging debut on heavy ground when she looked likely to win but tired late on. Miles to go yet but the Oaks rarely seems to have much correlation with 2yo form and is seen by some as the toughest Classic to nail ante post. Too short to play today and the Stoute horse is seen as the danger. His first race has not worked out well since.

    Already on Victor Ludorum and Tropbeau ante post and hopeful more than confident. They should go close. Fabre was firing at 7℅ when they started out this season but he seems to have put some heat to the arse of the pan and is cooking at 24% currently.
     
    #30

  11. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Threw a few arrows for L31 interest.
    1.00 Mutadel
    2.45 Art Power
    3.20 Tathmeen
    3.55 What A Business
    5.05 Good Tidings
     
    #31
  12. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    I'm also on Frankly Darling only bet today. Good luck all.
     
    #32
  13. NDS

    NDS Well-Known Member

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    I've done 1 in the first 5 races, in the hope that by the time I finish work, I have a pot for the next five.

    Right back to it good luck all.
     
    #33
  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    5.05 Newcastle

    I went with Ice Pyramid. A Bin Suroor reject, the 5yo is lightly raced and improving. Won off 75 before going down a neck when amateur ridden he was odds on last time and did it easily off 85 but will need more today from 92.

    May not have reached his peak yet and his course form is a plus. Sexier trainers are represented but I like Ice Pyramid's profile.
     
    #34
  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    This seems to be all about horse racing. I reckon we should close this thread <laugh>

    Anyone get the winner of the first. I didn't. I had a virtual £80 on Stone Mason:

    Next lay?

    Well I have a virtual £220 win on Mutasaamy at 10/11 in the next

    and am about to have £110 win on Frankly Darling at 10/11 in the 17.40
     
    #35
  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    On Sky they are showing the pace of the race in the bottom left of the screen. Should be useful for in race betting with Nass's stats
     
    #36
  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    it was very hard for them to make ground up from the rear in the first, whether that was the ground or lack of fitness, we shall see.
     
    #37
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    You layers must love me. I might start charging <laugh>
     
    #38
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  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    thanks Ron. Owe you a pint
     
    #39
  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Fancy Arapaho to at least place
     
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