Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

What price was he when you told me he would win the Derby?

 

Not sure but he was 28/1 when I first put him up.

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Just looked at Highest Ground. I see he was the RP star performer for the day. My first impression from the comments was that it was a decent time given he was slowly away. But the form doesn't seem to have amounted to much. By Frankel out of a Sunday Silence mare looks tasty and trained by MS one would think he's likely to improve a lot from that. First time out in late September is also a plus for me. Interesting. Can't find a video but get the impression it was an easy win

 

If you go on the Sporting Life website and join, then you can watch the video of that race.
Once joined go to search, put in the name of the horse and select the race and watch the video. You can also use this facility to put together a tracker.

Forever after you'll get adverts from bookies but you can ignore them.

 

This is about the best I can find Ron. Watch the 11 gate, Ryan Moore nearly get flung from the saddle.

At The Races has him down for another run on June 27 at the Curragh.

 

In the 2,000 Guineas though both horses have been beaten by Pinatubo am happy to trust Aidan O'Brien to work his magic again with

Arizona & Wichita

Win @ 8-1 & Each Way @ 20-1

The latter is crying out for a mile and knows the Rowley course well, while Arizona was so unlucky in the Breeders cup and goes on fast or soft ground

 

Has O'Brien come yet and said which ones he is running where

 

Missed the out part silly me trying to post a message while on my break on a building site WiFi not good

 

It was a weak maiden, the form on paper is worth nothing but he looked a powerful horse with plenty of potential and given the bad start he was value for more than it says in the book. Some of these Frankels are quite distinctive, he has a similar look to Eminent about him but long way to prove hes up to that level. He wasnt quite as impressive as Workforce on debut and I dont think hes going to be the next Workforce but I think he could be well above average.

 

The Guineas market appears to be taking shape on betfair now, with some seperation between Kameko and Kinross that looks more plausible.

Pinatubo 2.0
Arizona 8.4
Kameko 12.5
Military March 16.0
Threat 20.0
Kinross 20.0
Wichita 27.0
Alson 40.0
Kenzai Warrior 42.0
Al Suhail 44.0

70 bar

Alson and Witchita look more likely to run in the French and Irish version, and perhaps the weakness in Al Suhail suggests Appleby might be thinking about running him in the Irish version.

 

Entries not out yet, but would be surprised if the great man does not enter...a few

 

My 50/1 Derby bet Highest Ground, taking a chance on him having the stamina. Expect to see him in a tin of cat food in a couple of months.

He is entered for the Irish 2000 Guineas and Irish Derby because the first stage entries have already closed.

 

6 new races have been added to Royal Ascot, all lower class consolation handicap lotteries for the bookies. A 7f handicap will now open that show in place of the Queen Anne.

Disgrace if you ask me, was already a day too long and instead of refining it they are diluting it.

The Silver Royal Hunt Cup

The other significant change of moving the St James Palace and Coronation stakes to the last day has left the Prince of Wales supporting card in tatters. The BHA needs gutted.

Day 2
Silver Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (1m, 3yo+)
Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)
King George V Handicap (1m4f, 3yo)
Prince of Wales’s Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)
Royal Hunt Cup Handicap (1m, 3yo+)
Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)
Copper Horse Handicap (1m6f, 4yo+)

 

I could be wrong QM, but hasn't Frankel had a 12f winner somewhere? Maybe I'm mistaken. 50-1 looks interesting though.

 

Looks a really good prospect and with Frankel not being a bar to stamina (eg Logician) you'd think he could get the Derby trip. One slight worry is that most of his good siblings seem to be 8f-9f horses whomsoever the sire. The ones that did get further were slow. On paper an ideal Derby pedigree, a solid 10f sire out of a mare by a 10f horse.

 

Stamina usually comes from the dam’s side of the family. Frankel’s brother Noble Mission won over more than the Derby distance and was beaten not much a couple of other times.

The dam’s family all seem to stop at ten furlongs but perhaps that is because they never tried further.

He just ticked the boxes for my usual search for something at the beginning of the year: once-raced in some back-end maiden, blue-blood pedigree, housed in one of the big yards.

With my lousy ante post record on the Derby (i.e. bets before the week of the race) I expect to see Highest Ground under his new name of Whiskas by August.

 

I said earlier in the year that Royal Ascot would be poor if it went ahead on the original date. If anything the situation is now worse.

Newmarket Guineas on the weekend of 6th -7th and the Irish versions the following weekend make it unlikely that we will see any of the good ones at the Royal meeting starting just a few days later. The Irish Derby is set for the week after the Royal meeting finishes and the Epsom Derby the following week. It leave it hard to imagine good renewals of the traditional races featuring the ones who may not have been quite good enough for the Classics.

These extra ****ty handicaps should have been ditched and the meeting started on Wednesday with a Saturday finish in a four day renewal. There is too much dross now as it is and only suicide punters could want more and more handicap races where you have to wait to the day before the race to get each-way terms that appeal and by then they have shortened the horses' odds.

It's been a disastrous year for ante post bets with all the altered plans and it's all about trying to salvage something from the wreckage. I don't think Royal Ascot is going to hold much appeal for me compared to a normal year.

This man gave me his verdict:-

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Any thoughts on Royal Dornock who beat Kameko?

 

Was looking at him as an interesting outsider as they broke the 2yo track record at Newmarket in that race. Hes a bit more exposed than most but Obriens can improve a lot at 3, been put off by the weakness in the market though. He doesnt really fit the profile of an Obrien Guineas winner.

 

William Haggas has said that Born With Pride will likely head to Kempton for the Classic Trial as a starting point for her season. She is one of the leading fillies in the Oaks betting.

William Haggas was also asked about Al Aasy, the colt he had mentioned earlier in the year as a potential Derby runner. The trainer didn't sound too bullish in mentioning that the horse should improve for stepping up to 10F and beyond, observing that he needs to improve two stones from what he has done so far. Haggas must be dreaming I reckon because two stones added to his RPR of 77 only takes the horse to 105. Good luck winning a Derby with that figure.