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What would you do?

Discussion in 'Newcastle United' started by Chappaz, Sep 25, 2011.

?

Which would you choose?

  1. A). Do nout

  2. B). Spread for a guaranteed win

  3. C). Consolation bets

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  1. Chappaz

    Chappaz Active Member

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    No doubt most of you don't care, but I need some advice.

    For anyone who doesn't know, I put down £2 on a 10-team accumulator bet with odds of around 1600/1. That would give me a £3200 win.

    9 results have came up so far, with Norwich vs Sunderland (of all teams) being the only game left to run. I've put down a draw of that.

    Now through the use of some clever betting, I have three options:


    A). Do nout.

    Keep this original bet. If the game draws I get my £3200, if Norwich or Sunderland win, I get **** all.

    B). Spread out the money.

    Place £750 each on a Norwich win and a Sunderland win, which guarantees me something. However:

    If the draw comes through: £3200 - £750 - £750 = £1700 win
    Norwich win: £1245 - £750 (the lost money down on the mackem win) = £495 win
    Sunderland win: £1470 - £750 (the lost money down on the Norwich win) = £720 win

    So I'm guaranteed £495, but it means that if my original draw bet does come up correct, I've reduced my original £3200 winnings (if I'd taken the gamble) to £1700.

    There's also a possibility that I could increase the £750 bets, increasing my guaranteed win but reducing the win I'd have had if the draw comes up.

    C). Consolation prize

    Put just £160 on Norwich and Sunderland wins, guaranteeing myself at least a small prize.

    If the draw comes through: £3200 - £160 - £160 = £2880 win
    Norwich win: £265 - £160 (the lost money down on the mackem win) = £105 win
    Sunderland win: £313 - £160 (the lost money down on the Norwich win) = £153 win

    So if my original bet doesn't come through, I have at least £100 to drown my sorrows. However, if my original bet does come through, I still have a very large £2880 chunk, which is just £320 less than what I was originally going to win.


    Now which one would you choose?
     
    #1
  2. THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT

    THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT Well-Known Member

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    im a bit of a boring bloke so i would go for guaranteed win its a Good pay day:)
     
    #2
  3. Cisse and Assist

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    Go big or go home I say!!!
     
    #3
  4. Smudger

    Smudger Active Member

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    Aye same, couldnt bear it if I missed out on that much money. I will say that I think a draw is the most likely result tomorrow so maybe C isnt a bad idea. Also depends how well off you are in terms of savings etc as 3 grand is a hell of a win.

    Good luck either way <ok>
     
    #4
  5. Darren Peacock’s Ponytail

    Darren Peacock’s Ponytail Well-Known Member

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    I say go for option B - min of £495, plus they are two teams who are inconsistent and either team could win
     
    #5
  6. THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT

    THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT Well-Known Member

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    exactly:p
     
    #6
  7. Chappaz

    Chappaz Active Member

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    Good thing about option B is that £495 is a MINIMUM. I'll either win £495, £720 or £1700 if my original draw comes up.

    If that draw did come up though I'm sure I'd feel a little gutted that I basically halved my winnings.
     
    #7
  8. Donkey Toon

    Donkey Toon Active Member

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    Tough decision. Good luck though!

    Personally I'd go for a variation of C. Ensure you get something but don't reduce the grand prize too much. You'll forever regret it if the draw comes in, thinking of the money you "lost".
     
    #8
  9. james_SAFC

    james_SAFC Member

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    dont be greedy pick B and make a lot of money

    imagtine how you would feel if you picked A and lost due to a dodgy refereeing decisoon etc
     
    #9
  10. The Secret Ingredient

    The Secret Ingredient Well-Known Member

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    stick with what you put in the first place
     
    #10

  11. THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT

    THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT Well-Known Member

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    true but youde probably be more gutted if you won nowt though either way good luck
     
    #11
  12. I want curly hair too

    I want curly hair too Active Member

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    I voted C, but I think I'll change it to B and I would kind of hope for a Mackem win <laugh>
     
    #12
  13. Munstertoon

    Munstertoon Member

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    This.
     
    #13
  14. Hatem Is A Geordie

    Hatem Is A Geordie Active Member

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    I'd go B, guaranteed £500!
     
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  15. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    i like what donkey toon said. depends on your bank balance though...

    If you do go B you can even it out a bit so you get a higher minimum payout but a lower max payout (ie bet more money)
     
    #15
  16. Geordie Gashead

    Geordie Gashead Active Member

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    I'd go A, because I'm stupid like that.
     
    #16
  17. Chappaz

    Chappaz Active Member

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    That's currently my thinking. I'd be okay if I got myself £100 cash to enjoy on a nice night out, but if the draw came up I'd still have one heck of a bumper win. It's £300 less, but £2900 instead of £3200 is still in the '****load' category of cash.
     
    #17
  18. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    remember you'll probably never have this chance again
     
    #18
  19. THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT

    THE LEFT BOOT OF ROBERT Well-Known Member

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    acctually that sounds like a better idea than b 100 quid aint to bad and if you get the bumber pay out you wont be as disapointed
     
    #19
  20. Donkey Toon

    Donkey Toon Active Member

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    That is what I am thinking. Forget about the original bet, think instead that you have been given an offer whereby for a stake of £2 you are in a prize raffle to win enough money for a) one good night out b) one really excellent night out or c) 29 good nights out.

    The alternative being you have one chance of winning 32 good nights out but two chances of winning nothing.

    The first one gives you a great prize and two good backups, the other a slightly better top prize and a better then even chance of nothing.
     
    #20
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