Found this on the bbc website explaining the death numbers.......which is more or less what I said earlier. Although either way the figures are still high and expected to go higher......?. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654
That is an eminently testable hypothesis. If correct, you would expect a spike in the death rate up-front, followed by it quickly tapering toward a normal death rate as COVID deaths were offset by the fact that those whose deaths would have normally occurred later in the year happen to already be dead. You'd then expect a lengthy period where the death rate was significantly below the norm. While possible, I'd be very cautious about anything with "up to" when dealing with statistics, particularly when you have large error bars. I'd also note that the individual providing the data for that, David Spiegelhalter, has indicated that most people misunderstood his argument (including several journalists):
----------------------- China on Sunday reported 108 new cases, its highest number in weeks - almost all were imported ------------------------ And there's me thinking I'd have to wait a week for this bump.
Last night I could hear of plenty of "gatherings" on our street or surrounding streets, with music going till the early hours etc. In general the whole weekend seemed alot busier than it has been. I guess people think we're over the worst now and lockdown will be lifted fairly soon.
An additional complication in this country has been that the death rate has been climbing steadily from its low point in the late 2000’s. No prizes for guessing why, but when the ONS get round to quantifying the COVID-19 effect, it will have to deal with this trend. Source from the Office of National Statistics, scroll down to paragraph 5 on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ulletins/deathsregistrationsummarytables/2018
Interesting interview with an Australian researcher...a medic I assume (?)….they have developed a stick-on diagnostic tool that can monitor levels of an indicator for a cytokine storm (the most dangerous incident for a COVID-19 patient) and send it directly to an iPhone. This level will allow medical staff to not only start anti-cytokine treatment in the most at-risk patients but also monitor treatment and avoid over doing it and dangerously reducing the patient's immune system. The amazing speed of such research is similar to that observed in war time...which in a way this is.
I would be extremely worried if we were. Spain are 2 weeks ahead of us and I can see them continuing with their lockdown. If we come out of lockdown before them, without a majorly positive change in the current situation, then we can consider ourselves being sacrificed to the gods of big business.
Some easing of restrictions will be started in Spain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52267376
Thought I read it it on one of the comments on here ( PL thread / Saints thread ) Don't believe it myself . Just thought I would mention it .
Completely agree. You wouldn't start walking on a broken leg again straight out of surgery would you. The problem is being taken care of, but still needs time to heal and recover.
No one would have believed in the early years of the twenty-first century that this world was being watched keenly and closely by intelligences greater than mankind's and yet as mortal as our own; that as people busied themselves about their various concerns they were scrutinised and studied, perhaps almost as narrowly as a person with a microscope might scrutinise the transient bacteria that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. Only slightly rearranged opening sentences from War of the Worlds.
