1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Daily Racing Thread Monday 23rd. March 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Mar 22, 2020.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2014
    Messages:
    4,531
    Likes Received:
    4,170
    #1
  2. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2014
    Messages:
    4,531
    Likes Received:
    4,170
    Woop! Woop! The Irish flat season starts today!
    I'll get my coat <laugh>
     
    #2
    LG, Bustino74, SaveTheHumans and 2 others like this.
  3. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,691
    Likes Received:
    2,839
    AOB runners tend to come on for their first outing so it could be worth taking on his short price fav in the first with Jim Bolgers Poetic Flare 3/1.Bolger won this race last year and has a decent record in this race over the years.
     
    #3
    SaveTheHumans likes this.
  4. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    According to Timeform the winner last season was trained by O’Callaghan?
     
    #4
  5. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,691
    Likes Received:
    2,839
    Yes you correct Naas, I was looking at 2.30 race<doh>
     
    #5
  6. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2012
    Messages:
    11,261
    Likes Received:
    5,197
    The Devoy stakes at 4.00 is where my focus was tonight. I like the Dermot Weld runner Brogue at 4/1 .He won his maiden nicely enough on debut, looked a little light in his frame still that day. Having been away since I am hopeful that Dermot has him cherry ripe for his seasonal bow, as he so often does, and, perhaps it could be the time to catch out the O'Brien runner Sir Dragonet, whom they all have to beat.

    Brogue beat some nice horses on debut in the shape of Barbados and Up Helly Aa, both went on to score readily next time up and Up Helly Aa's form in particular reads well now.

    With the weight allowance condisered, I reckon there won't be too much in it between the main protagonists and I'm hopeful Dermot has Brogue fit to roll where as Aidan might have left something to work on. Hallimi will appreciate the ground and Numerian wouldn't need to improve massively to get involved either but I think it's a match and 4/1 is a fair price to upset the fave.

    Good luck all.
     
    #6
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,324
    Likes Received:
    15,494
    Hefferson could have a good day. Doesn't have one in the 16.30 but even so, could win
     
    #7
    Ste D likes this.
  8. stick

    stick Bumper King

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    18,671
    Likes Received:
    10,890
    This race shows what a complete disconnect there is from O'Brien and "the rest" in Ireland. They paid 650,000gns for Lippizaner whereas last nights move horse, Marketta was purchased for 1,000EU.
    Marketta's trainer Brendan Duke has had a winner and a runner up in this race in the last two seasons and that explains to me why there was a move for it last night. I think this will now drift after the initial enthusiasm. Bolger does have a good record in the race and he saddles two respectable looking types. On pedigree the one of his for me is almost certainly Poetic Flare and I would expect that one to be in the shake up.
    Lippizaner is a real blue blood and the suggestion in his line is that he could be an early type. The betting suggest though that the yard is not all that confident. A quick look at the previous winners tells you that O'Brien has never won the race but a more in depth study reveals that he has never had a runner. The yard won with their first four juvenile runners last year and my understanding is that they have around half a dozen ready to go. Watch out for one called Horoscope.
    Forever My Girl hails from a family of winners and is being nibbled at in the market. If she follows the usual family trait she wouldnt be quite up to winning at the first time of asking.
    The one that really caught my eye was The Blue Panther who comes from a family that includes many winners. The dam won on her debut so this could be the sort of early type that this trainer is capable of producing. My one negative over him is the trip as most of what you see in his line are milers. That may not stop him running a place.
    Conclusion; A win for LIPPIZANER, place for THE BLUE PANTHER.
     
    #8
    Ron, Fazor and Ste D like this.
  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Stick will hate this, but I completely agree with him on the first juvenile race of the flat season. Lippizaner looks to be the best horse in the race, and whilst the yard aren't renowned for a fast start to the season, they have had a more positive start to the year according to Timeform's Run To Form (RTF) graph (see attached) and this horse isn't the usual breeding for an AOB juvenile being by a US sire and a AUS mare!

    He is an early foal too, and being a colt against fillies I think he has another advantage on half the field. If he is half as good as his pedigree suggests he might be, then he should win an early season maiden.

    It is very interesting to see the horse drift to 11/8, which I think is more to do with the artificially short opening market than a negative against the horses chances. If we saw a drift to 5/2 then that would be saying something very different.

    I also agree about The Blue Panther, who is my choice for the forecast. A slightly later foaling date is a negative, but he has the pedigree to be an early type and again being a colt is interesting against a mixed field.
     

    Attached Files:

    #9
  10. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    3,516
    Likes Received:
    1,740
    All the bookies are shut. I’ll have to bite the bullet and open an online account. Or maybe a telephone account. I would welcome any advice.
     
    #10

  11. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Buy a generator instead
     
    #11
  12. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    3,516
    Likes Received:
    1,740
    I’ve got one ,next.
     
    #12
  13. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    get another one, just in case!
     
    #13
  14. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    3,516
    Likes Received:
    1,740
    You the **** is uncle mo ? I’ve never heard of him. Did he win the Derby or the Arc?
     
    #14
  15. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    3,516
    Likes Received:
    1,740
    Must admit I’m slightly excited my greenhouse arrives this week. I was in the garden preparing the base.
     
    #15
  16. stick

    stick Bumper King

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    18,671
    Likes Received:
    10,890
    American horse, won the Breeders Cup Juvenile
     
    #16
    floridaspearl likes this.
  17. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    make sure the delivery team don’t pass an infection on.
     
    #17
    smokethedeadbadger likes this.
  18. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    3,516
    Likes Received:
    1,740
    Here’s a question. Why isn’t aob running this horse at Dundalk rather than heavy at Naas ? For the record I’d go with the second string Bolger horse.
     
    #18
  19. floridaspearl

    floridaspearl Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    3,516
    Likes Received:
    1,740
    I’ll leave it in the garden for 3or 4 days. Do I look stupid? No don’t answer that .
     
    #19
  20. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2011
    Messages:
    7,972
    Likes Received:
    4,169
    Here's what i fancy today:

    2:00 - Boasting 16/1 ew
    2:30 - Grizzly 6/1 win/Ecclesiastical 20/1 ew
    3:00 - Dark Vader 11/4 win
    3:30 - Justina 7/1 win/Camachita 10/1 ew (4 places)

    In the 5:00 there are a fair few newcomers which means a fair amount of unknown in the race. There's two that look kind of interesting to me at huge prices and therefore i've had a small speculative ew play on both:

    Karakatta 33/1
    Dheisheh 45/1


    Both 7 places with Bet365 ew extra
     
    #20
    rudebwoy and Ste D like this.

Share This Page