On the subject of 'experts'. I have found that, throughout my life, medical experts have been extremely good at their jobs and can be relied upon to get most things right. This is why I am, in the main, supporting the government as they try to square this ongoing circle. Those on the left sneeringly saying that it's ironic that experts are now being listened to seem to forget that economic experts get things wrong alarmingly often. That is why they don't fill me with much confidence.
It is incredibly ironic though, to be clear. Other nations’ chosen experts seem to near-unanimously disagree with our chosen experts.
It wasn't. Simply explaining why I don't trust economic experts but have far more faith in our medical experts. I agree with most of what Labour politicians have been saying on the outbreak.
I've just spent a few hours in the pub with someone whose live-at-home son almost certainly has the virus - dry cough, 39 degree fever etcetera. When asked why the **** he was out potentially infecting the rest of us, his response was, understandably, ''what else am I supposed to do?'. He's been told by 111 that his son should stay at home (no choice there, he hasn't been able to get out of bed for four days), but that the rest of the family should continue as normal. There must be a good chance that my pal is infected and that he will have infected me. I will then most likely infect my family. You can't stop this thing, the sooner herd immunity is achieved the better.
Without sounding political or trying to score points. It was interesting how the EU sent out this message of unity and that they ‘were one’, only for each country to do it’s own thing and tonight Germany is going to introduce border controls to France, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Denmark. The reporter said ”the EU is not united”. I seem to recall a poster saying “that will come back to haunt them” when they decided to keep the Schengen area open. on another note why has France got everyone out for an election when the rest of the country is shut down?
I’m being serious Stroller. It proves that they are not really united and when the chips are down they are all separate countries with different ideas. I really hope all people in all countries are safe. Today I read a post from a good Italian friend of mine who lost a friend to the Virus yesterday. He posted this message on Facebook that would make most grown men cry.
Why the 'sneering left' comment then? It is interesting that we have the only medical experts who are recommending this strategy.
People standing in line to buy weed, right before the Netherlands went on lockdown. #COVID19 please log in to view this image More people standing in line to buy weed, moments before #COVID19 lockdown shut down most of Dutch public places. please log in to view this image People standing in line to buy liquor, right before Chester County, PA, USA closed down liquor stores please log in to view this image please log in to view this image So people stand in line for Booze> US Weed > Netherlands Toilet paper > rest of the world
The number of NHS hospital beds has fallen 23rd Feb 2017 Claim The number of NHS overnight beds has fallen by a fifth over the last decade. Conclusion The number has fallen, but we don’t know by how far. The bed count included more things a decade ago, so this claim isn’t based on a fair comparison. Claim 1 of 2 “NHS cuts 15,000 beds in six years” Daily Mail, 20 February 2017 “Number of NHS hospital beds has plunged by 20% in ten years, BMA warns” Daily Mirror, 20 February 2017 “Between 2006/7 and 2015/16, the number of overnight hospital beds has decreased by a fifth.” British Medical Association, 20 February 2017 “This analysis is inaccurate — the figures come from two different time periods when the way of counting beds was different, and so they aren't comparable.” Department of Health, 20 February 2017 The claims making the headlines aren’t fully accurate. But they are telling one part of a wider story. It’s true that the number of hospital beds in England is falling. They’re more and more likely to be occupied overnight, leaving less slack in the system to cope with surges in demand. The significance of the fall isn’t clear-cut. Per person, we probably don’t need quite as many beds we used to: the NHS is getting more efficient at seeing patients in hospital; more of us are being seen on the same day rather than staying overnight; and when we do stay overnight, on average we’re spending slightly less time in hospital. Finally, these figures don’t tell us everything. For example, they don’t tell us about beds in private hospitals, paid for by the NHS. Official figures show at least 12,000 fewer overnight hospital beds over six years Whatever periods you compare between now and six years ago, the number of overnight beds on the NHS has fallen. On an average night from July to September in 2010, there were about 141,500 beds across the English NHS. During the same period last year – the latest figures – there were 129,500. So that’s a fall of about 12,000. You can get slightly different figures by comparing different points in the year. For example, if you compared April to June of both years you’d see a fall of 14,000. The headlines get 15,000 by comparing the spring months in 2010 with the summer months in 2016. This isn’t a fair comparison because the number of beds varies depending on the time of year. Typically the number of beds increases at the start of the year, during winter, before falling back in the later months. Figures before 2010 aren’t comparable with today’s figures This was the government’s line of argument in response to the headlines this week. Before 2010, the NHS’ figures included more types of bed. It counted beds for residential care or what’s called ‘non-consultant-led’ treatment (beds for care managed by a nurse or GP). Since 2010, only beds managed by consultant doctors in hospitals are part of the figures. That was seen as a “major factor” behind the sharp fall in the number of overnight beds counted in these figures. That means claims that simply compare the number of beds before and after 2010 will overstate the fall. We asked the BMA – which made claims about the change over the past decade – about these concerns. They pointed us to part of their report which warned that “care should be taken … when comparing figures from before and after 2009/10” due to the change in methodology. please log in to view this image Whatever rough estimates you care to make, it’s still clear the number of overnight beds has been falling. The difficulty is knowing by how much. We don’t necessarily need as many beds per patient as we used to It’s tempting to conclude that any number of fewer beds is bad news for the NHS, especially considering hospitals are busier than ever. It’s not quite as simple as that. On one hand, the number of overnight beds has been falling for years – it fell by about 9% over the last six. But on the other, the proportion of beds which are occupied has been rising slowly by comparison. Six years ago about 85% of overnight beds were occupied. Last year it was more like 87%. please log in to view this image A few other trends help to explain why this might have happened. First, a growing proportion of hospital visits involving a consultant have been day-only over the last decade, as opposed to patients staying overnight. 29% of cases were day-only in 2005/6 while 36% were in 2015/16. This is also reflected in a slight rise in the number of day-only beds over the same period. The average length of stay in hospital is also falling consistently over time. This is because patients who are in hospital for longer periods are leaving sooner. It’s been the case since 2007 that half of overnight patients only stay a day. please log in to view this image But there are still fewer than the recommended number of beds available Hospitals across England are getting more and more likely to reach capacity. A rise in occupancy from 85% to 87% might not sound like much, but the upward trend has been consistent for the last six years From July to September last year, bed occupancy hit 87.5% - the highest recorded level for that time of year. Across hospital trusts, almost two thirds were using over 85% of their overnight beds on average. 10% of trusts had 95% occupancy rates or higher. This is dangerous for patients, according to the trade association, NHS Providers. It and the Royal College of Psychiatrists (RCP) say 85% is the standard rate. The RCP goes on: “[85%] means that patients can be admitted in a timely fashion to a local bed, retain the connections with their social support network and take leave without the risk that they cannot return to their ward should they need a longer period of in-patient care. It allows functioning space to accommodate those newly admitted and to provide proper treatments to current patients.” The problem is particularly acute over winter, when ‘unplanned’ care demand is highest so the system needs slack. Health think tank the King’s Fund warned last month that bed occupancy rates had routinely exceeded 85% over the past winter and on some days often passed even 95%.
please log in to view this image Department of Health and Social Care @DHSCgovuk Yesterday we entered the Delay phase of our #COVID_19uk Action Plan. @UKScienceChief explained why this is important. It allows us to #FlattenTheCurve, which means reducing the impact in the short-term to ensure our health & care system can effectively protect vulnerable people please log in to view this image
