Off Topic Coronavirus

I still don't understand why schools etc are being shut.
Was this done during SARS etc?
Is there something we're not being told?

 

Wee're not being told anything much, and in the absence of advice from the government schools are taking it upon themselves to shut. I think it's just schools where kids have returned from Italy or another hot-spot, but an expert on Newsnight said that children are largely unaffected anyway. There's a whole lot of over-reaction going on and the government needs to put people straight.

 

I wish they ****ing would.
Took a quick look at my pension pot and I won't have another look for a while!!

 

Something I heard which I found shocking is that each year in the US 16,000 die because of the flu. I heard this from an “expert” in a BBC interview who was saying don’t panic.

 

The problem appears to be that most people get this in a much milder form - apparently about 80% of those getting this suffer no more than heavy cold symptoms, and so, as a result, many are probably walking around unaware that they are transmitting this. Children may be quite capable of transmitting the disease, though the symptoms may be milder for them. This places teachers at great risk. Unlike health workers, teachers are not able to wear protective clothing for their job and are often more exposed to viral illnesses than others would be. Every flu wave takes more teachers than amongst the overall population. Actually - all large gatherings of people constitute a risk. In the north of Italy all schools are closed, all theatres, and all football matches are taking place behind closed doors. Switzerland has a ban on all public gatherings of more than a thousand people. Unfortunately the carnival period has already taken it's toll in the Rhineland - which is probably why most of those infected in Germany come from that area.

 

Yep, I understand that.
This virus does appear to be very easily spread, however, why are such draconian measures being taken if it's only the same as regular flu etc?

Something maybe doesn't quite add up?

Does the stock market drop with its 2nd biggest fall ever whenever we have a flu epidemic?

 

This is now getting beyond stupid. The top 4 stories on the BBC news site are Coronavirus, including news of the poor British bloke’s death in Japan. The first line of its ‘Coronavirus:What should I do?’ article states that it’s a ‘virus which causes severe lung disease’. The simple addition of the truth - it causes severe lung disease in about 19% of people who get it, of which 5% are ‘critical’ and, globally, less than 1% die, and only about 5% of the whole population get infected at all - would help in averting panic, if people can do some mental arithmetic. It’s undoubtedly bad news for some people, and I sympathise, but the reaction is more dangerous in my opinion.

105 children, including 15 last week, have died of flu in the US this ‘season’. Last time I looked no one had died of Coronavirus in the States.

 

I think it's a case of fear of the unknown Col. We've lived with Flu epidemics and we know what to expect - but this has an unknown quality about it.

 

Yes, yes, all understood and I completely get it.

I still repeat though........why has the stock market dropped with its 2nd largest fall in history if it's just flu?

 

Bloody hell I just watched Sky News and they spoke to some American Scientist who said they are a month away from a vaccine they will try on humans..... That was quick or does this need to go on the conspiracy thread?

 

But according to those on here mocking the reaction, it's not unknown. It's just flu!!?

 

I know the answer to that as I have just seen some analyst on Sky business news!

 

And.....?

 

Virus was the main reason but also recession fears US elections and something to do with bonds (but then it got a bit complicated).
The bloke said on Sky that it wasn't just the Virus but a weird almalgumation of events. Even our comments of walking away from the EU in June caused markets to move.

Almost forgot, they mentioned Hong Kong troubles and French problems.

 

Yeah that's what I gathered. Bit of a perfect storm.

 

Ok, and of course this is just my opinion.

Firstly, the markets have no intelligence, they operate on herd instinct. If one trader (or algorithm) goes one way, others follow. It’s why we have entirely idiotic boom and bust swings.

In this case I don’t think the reaction is to the virus, it’s to the reaction to the virus. Largely because China shut down big chunks of its economy for a bit (trying to restart it now). During the last outbreak, SARS, China accounted for about 5% of the world economy, now its closer to 15% which is massive, and is integrated into supply chains everywhere as well as being a huge market. If people there aren’t making and buying things it has very quick knock on effects everywhere. With the media feasting on this to maximise the numbers of clicks they get more and more people will stop going to work, or going out to spend money, exaggerating the impact and causing more downward pressure on the markets, including commodity prices (see petrol prices today?).

This kind of **** is inevitable (it could be any one of a bunch of things, including wars etc) in a world where economic ‘success’ is based on permanent exponential growth (clearly unsustainable and ridiculous) - any threat to growth, and therefore profits and dividends, causes a panic.

But the markets will swing back the other way in a bit. What doesn’t swing back is the real world impact of this ****, which is why real world wages are still lower than in 2008 before the financial crash, even though markets are way over pre crash levels.


Sorry, droned on as usual.

 

It's the weekend after all....

 

Most of the shares were overpriced and it's a correction
They will go up again
Touch wood
Good time to buy shares

 

Heard on the radio this morning that he shares that are predominantly being hammered are airlines and those within the travel sector. People are becoming wary of travelling at the moment - good time to book an away trip!!

 

...but only take a slow boat to China