The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

Bit of a disappointing day with only Big Impact running well, he is a Southwell horse and today showed they should get some wins out of him in modest handicaps.

 

Next time surely will be better. Looking forward reading your selections for the upcoming meeting at Southwell.

 

Not a day for thinking left field. We live to fight another day at least.

 

1) Young Tiger certainly missed a beat at the start, and Mullen's tactics did seem strange. That said, and all possible excuses considered, I think I just got this wrong and, on these terms and at their current form/fitness levels, Mulzim is better than YT.

2) Frau Rilke has pointed out to me that the term spittle-flecked in my earlier post (#394) might be interpreted in certain sectors of the United Kingdom as racist or nutterphobic. I appreciate fully that Not606 neither accepts nor condones hurtful/demeaning/provocative terminology of this sort, and I have today replaced it with swivel-eyed. We have made a generous donation to a recognised conspiracy-theory charity.

 

It is back again tomorrow (and on Sunday) and we get one of the talking horses running tomorrow in the 6 furlong handicap. More on that in a bit - I won't be around much tomorrow all being well, so early thoughts are -

2:00 Three course and distance winners and three others who have good placed form over course and distance. It isn't a race I want to be betting in, because the horse I like the most is returning from a break and I don't know what the draw bias is at the course at present over this trip. This race should give us a good indication for Sunday.

2:35 No surprise to see market support for Iron Heart here, who finished with good sectionals (12.32 and then 12.77 for the last two furlongs) in his course run last time. My worry is that he was slowly away that day and seemed to hate the kickback for the majority of the run. He is drawn low again and if he gets out slowly he could be stuck behind a few horses once again. 15/8 is a fair price and i've had a fair bet on him at those prices.

3:05 A maiden handicap, and one that looks too tough for me to solve. No obvious sire pointers for newcomers to surface.

3:40 SOOOOOOOO - Will Six Strings put it all in, will the commentators be harping on about the ride given to him. He has plucked a good draw on the outside of Al Suil Eile and Sandridge Lad and he should get a good tow into the race from them. It will be up to young Rooke to deliver him, but will he pluck up the courage to go for the whip knowing the horse isn't the most straightforward? Or will he Sit(ar) and suffer the wrath of punters with another waiting ride? If he reports back that the horse didn't go through with his efforts, will anyone call him a Lyre? That Oud chestnut.

Right, i've Harpsichorded on about this enough, my issue with him is that he doesn't win enough races and in this race he has two horses with really good course and distance records in Sandridge Lad and Al Suil Eile in opposition and with Al Suil Eile double the prices in the market I think Six Strings is rank bad value. On balance of the form and the market, I don't think this is a betting race for me.

4:10 A bumper basically. Not even looking at this.

4:40 A proper Southwell race with The Eagle's Nest taking on Fly True, both recent course victors and both having different quality of amateur riders on their back. This race however is really interesting as I think it could be much more competitive than the market suggests. Sea Shack has a couple of course placings to his name, and being drawn in stall one he is primed to get a good early position. He is frustrating though and probably can be overlooked here for win purposes.
Deconso is back from a break and hasn't got convincing course form, he can sit up with the pace, but he'd need to have improved for the break and be ready to fire first time up on the surface. Therefore he is overlooked. Baile Ghilibert is very moderate, but again can sit up with the pace, and that could mean The Eagle's Nnest has to slot in behind runners again and face the kickback.

Pearl Spectre is a relatively consistent horse in context of this race, but he wasn't so good last time up, and I think he is vulnerable over this trip at Southwell. Falcao is very interesting he is a very hit and miss character, but showed much more from the front last time at Lingfield, and he is well handicapped and has shown winning form at the track. He will be a hostage to fortunates a bit here, because these amateur jockeys could go too fast from the front and cause the pace to collapse.

If that happens then Fly True and The Eagle's Nest will come through the field. Fly True with the four pounds penalty is well off here given the way she won last time out. She routed a field that day that included Jem Scuttle, who ran well this week behind The Eagle's Nest with a line through that form it would be very close between the two.

Bawtry Lady is back from a break, has very little course form and is modest at best.Three C's is interesting given that he has been in some sort of form for this yard and now returning from a break he goes to Southwell. His sire statistics aren't great, but the yard have had a recent winner. I still prefer others though

Letmestopyouthere is another returning from a break and he has one course run that suggests that he isn't a forlorn hope here, given that was off 20lbs higher. His sire statistics aren't great, but he is one of the likelier types on paper for this race.

Fieldsman is the other likely type, top weight in the handicap and drawn wide, which isn't normally the most appealing of prospects, but it might be a bit of an advantage for him here. He ran behind a favourite of mine in Bonds Angel last time, in a race where I think he did too much on the turn and was left vulnerable to better horses.

On his penultimate run he was a fair 5th behind Al Suile Eile amongst others, but again that day it was eyecatching how well he travelled in behind horses and that day the front horses didn't come back. That race was better than this again though, and with this being a poor race, apart from the two in form horses I think he is the one to be with here. 15/2 is available which looks fair enough, but I am hoping to get bigger prices in the morning and I will be backing it to win and in forecasts with Fly True and The Eagle's Nest to finish in second place behind him.

Two betting races tomorrow. Hopefully at least one winner!

 

Not the best card today is it. I've been through and for what its worth my picks would be:

2:00 - Amazing Amaya 15/2
2:35 - Stagiaire 9/2
3:05 - Fox Shinji 5/4
3:40 - Not a strong pick but Al Suil Eile 4/1, would have liked bigger price to make it an each way option
4:40 - Letmestopyouthere 4/1, same thoughts apply as above

 

2.00 Amazing Amaya

I'm taking a chance on this horse. Cam Hardie was first and third on this horse at Southwell. Back in the saddle today obvisiously a plus.Stall 4 another positive in my opinion. Derek Shaw's runner always dangerous to dismiss in these kind of races at Southwell.

 

Nass, whats your thoughts on the gosden runner ,strawbridge colours as well? He has a fine strike rate here !

 

sorry been on the road all day. She is a tiny thing who I guess will be seen as a broodmare rather than anything on track.

 

One from two today, got the price on that one and the other ran on in the end under a weak ride. Annoyingly I was right to take Fly True on but it was a horse without the course form or sire pointer that won it.

 

Hopefully we are back in action tomorrow and a couple of early prices -

13:45 - I can't be having Adjutant as the favourite, so with him at 15/8 I think we need to find something to take him on with. Princess Harley I think will go off the favourite, so at 9/4 is appealing whilst Seven Clans is interesting on collateral form through Cold Harbour. However he is a plodder and should find something better placed in this field. The horse that caught the eye was Tigray who at 8/1 and outsider of the field is a bet. He has the course form and the handicapper has relented quite quickly. Yard are in better form than when last raced and I think this is perfect race for him. I think he is going to go off shorter than this price.

15:25 - Tynecastle Park - I think he will be odds on in the morning. My only worry is that a couple of these might not run and make his price a silly one. That said, I think that he is a fair price at the minute.

16:35 - Gorgeous General - had a lovely prep last time out, this was race they were targetting (won last year) - surely he won't be 11/2 in the morning!!

I have two others but I am waiting for the markets properly on them.

 

Ahhhhhh, salubrious Southwell. Really invigorates ones sense of well-being.

 

4:00 - Amazing Amaya 4/1
4:35 - Robsdelight 3/1

 

Tigray more than halved in price to 7/2
Tynecastle Park drifting to 6/4
Gorgeous General shortening to 100/30 best price with 3s in most places

 

Princess Harley in the first . Quinn’s horses ar running well without winning, had one placed yesterday I think one at lingers the other week so that my first pick and has good course form.

 

Get in - punt landed

 

Well done and again thank you very much for putting it on

 

2nd one wins at very short odds.

 

Three from three. Get the beers in.

 

Excellent