Daily Racing Thread Sunday 2nd. February 2020

Since 1989 the oldest winners of the Flogas Chase have been 8YO so Faugheen would have to buck that trend big time as a 12YO. He was class of course but it would not say much for the younger horses if the old lad can see them off. Battleoverdoyen is my RSA ante-post play but I couldn't back him for today at 7/4 simply because I passed on the 3/1 available in the build up to this race. He was workmanlike last time and I am not sure if 2M 5F would be as good for him as 3M. A win will see him pretty close to being favourite for the RSA and that will be sufficient interest to avoid the need to bet on today's race.

Delta Work will have to beat Kemboy again today to have a Cheltenham Gold Cup shout. I feel 3 miles is as far as the horse needs and he seemed to stay less well than Santini and Topofthegame in last year's RSA. I can't buy into him reversing form with Santini over the extra distance of the Cheltenham Gold Cup so today nay be his bigger chance of a Gold Cup win. I don't think Presenting Percy is as good without truly testing conditions and although the times seem slower than yesterday I doubt he will find it soft enough. It's all about Kemboy for me but not at the odds now, given that he was 2/1 early in proceedings.

 

Horse of a lifetime. Terrific race. Well done Faugheen.

 

Al Boum Photo, Santini, Lostintranslation

forget the rest

 

Screen shot taken

 

Delta Work was my banker of the meeting last year and he failed despite tanking into the race, there is simply no logical case for him to beat Santini over even further at Cheltenham. I had him 4th choice a few weeks ago when I looked at the race and I still have him there. Obviously in the jump game horses can fall but barring accident, hes 4th choice in my book.

As I said also, if Kemboy wins a Gold Cup ill chuck racing.

 

Santini at 10/1 before the Cotswald was the bet and hes still the bet at 11/2. Lostintranslation is the last one who could potentially get cut if he bounces back in the Denman Chase, but hes hard to get a handle on for me and I prefer Santini.

 

You are right that, like most sports, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

The 49ers did beat up on some poor teams and also their defence did not spend huge amounts of time on the field because of Shanahan’s old style run offense controlling the clock.

If I apply the same reasoning to the Chiefs, they are not as good against the run as the statistics suggest because most of their opponents spent half the game throwing the ball because Mahomes was a second quarter touchdown machine.

The problem for Kansas City is that their high-octane offense will not keep San Francisco’s defence on the field for long periods to wear them out. The 49ers will keep the Kansas City defence on the field unless Garoppolo frequently ends up in third-and-long situations.

 

Black Tears winning the opener meant it was a good day whatever happened but Faugheen obliging made it even greater. Chavi Artist ran well, was impeded 3 times by fallers but managed to plug along into 7th and the bumper horse for Joseph ran dissapointing on what he has shown so far but that's racing. A good day all in all.

 

Battleoverdoyen was cooked when coming to grief. That's game over for him. He seemed to be taken along at a brisk pace early and then went along in snatches thereafter. Just not as good as I thought he might have become.

Kemboy did not put in a great round of jumping but it was hardly a terminal defeat. It made little sense for me to see Delta Work 4/1 for the Gold Cup and Kemboy 8/1 in the aftermath. Delta Work had 2 lengths less to spare from their previous clash and you would hardly take it as a given that the form could not closed come Cheltenham with extra distance to travel.

Good effort from Presenting Percy today, he looked to be going best at one stage in a race where the time was 44.6 seconds slower than standard. The Gold Cup remains open in my opinion, with several questions surrounding most of the contenders.

Aspire Tower would have had about a stone in hand on most rating scales and should really have been winning that race comfortably today. The 1st three home after his fall were all officially rated in the low 130's and both Cerberus and Wolf Prince had both struck me as Boodles contenders at least 10 lbs short of what would have been realistic Triumph contenders in the past. Aspire Tower was not about to put in the sort of win I would have been looking for had he stood up today.

On another note, Willie Mullins has had several shocking efforts from his stable recently and the Racing Post have him on only 44% of his runners performing to their ratings in the past fortnight. That's a bit worrying for me.

 

Fred Winter. Who in their right mind calls it Boodles?

 

Just the 3 G1 wins and 3 G1 2nds in the last 2 days, very worrying times for the Mullins yard.

 

It's a ****ty race anyway. There is nothing to get precious about in what it is called. If you go onto Oddschecker the race is named as Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Times move on and it's not as if the Fred Winter title was long established one, nor is a Classic Cheltenham race. It's a symptom of the ever declining quality of a meeting being stretched like an elephants foreskin.

 

So if you were punting the Mullins runners in the three Grade 1 races you won the following monies:-

Asterion Forlonge 4/1 winner. Three Mullins runners. £5 back for a £1 on each.

Faugheen 13/8 winner. Four Mullins runners. £2.63 back for a £1 on each.

Chacun Pour Soi 6/5 winner. Four Mullins runners. £2.20 back for £1 on each

Summary £9.83 returned for £11 invested.

Way to bash those bookies.

Your sarcastic post is so pointless. Mullins had four of the seven runner field in the Dublin Chase and the three that were not his were priced 25/1, 66/1 and 66/1. It is hardly surprising that the trainer managed to get a forecast there and the faithful were rewarded as the Fav beat second fav for a 3.85 dividend.

Cheltenham is going to be much tougher than shooting **** in a bucket in weak races and going in mob handed. Some of Willie's have been winning but fairly narrowly given the odds-on prices they have been. Even Faugheen only won half a length from a much lower rated horse and the Racing Post guy explained it away by having Faugheen down as running 4 lbs below form and the runner-up improving his form by 16 lbs. I reckon it is much more likely Faugheen was a stone below his best, rather than 4 lbs but time will tell.

If you think Mullins is tickety-boo the best of luck to you. Winning Grade 1 races where your hand is heavily favoured against the rest of the field is not indicative of overall stable form. Quite a few of Willie's will need to be cherry ripe to win at Cheltenham.

 

I have only picked one so far. I will get another 2 selections to level the playing field if we are allowed three for every race.

 

I'm on santini but I think the race is between those 3. This isnt a competition, lost count of the number of youre cheltenham bets that have went down the drain already and didnt want to rub salt in wounds, my comments were about the Gold Cup, nothing to do with you being on the no hoper Kemboy.