The Sunny Southwell Sands Thread

I don't back at Southwell very often but Ballard Down surely has a good chance in the 6.25 race.

The horse has recently changed stables and after failing to cut much ice over hurdles he returns to the Flat on favourable terms in a claimer. His official mark of 90 would see him having to concede 22 lbs to Bond Angel if it were a handicap race and only giving 6 lbs the older horse must hold a good chance today.

Often slowly away, it will always be a bit of a concern to see him behind early but he is capable of a rattling finish when things fall right for him. Ballard Down won a Class 3 Handicap at Windsor last summer when he was with David Pipe and this contest is only a Class 6 affair and it would be disappointing if he can't score on today's terms.

The favourite Bond Angel likes Southwell and is likely to run her race but her official rating of 68 is well behind Ballard Down's best efforts.

The Racing Post betting forecast had Ballard Down at 4/5, which was obviously nonsense but I did feel that 3/1 represented a fair risk/reward ratio. Hopefully he will be finishing best late on from not too far behind.

6.25 Southwell Ballard Down 3/1

 

Oi! Less of the old.

 

Little Thread seems to be doing ok

 

Mister Music has been backed from as big as 7/1 into around the 7/4 mark now. Given his trainer, the money is seldom wrong when they punt them. Ballard Down friendless, 11/10 out to 7/2. Bond Angel holding firm, fingers crossed for those on.

 

Gracie's Girl is still running I think. Badly misread that one.

No mistakes with Gulliver though as he easily outclassed that field as I had hoped. First 3 furlongs were worrisome but once he got into the straight he picked up powerfully all the way to the line, never a sweat

 

15/8 for the form horse and the horse likely to get race run to suit. The highest rated finishing plum last. It’s why I love betting at Southwell, you know what is likely to go on the surface and what isn’t.

 

I might look silly in ten minutes or so time but i've done the six bets on the forecast between

Silviacliffs - drawn nicely 2 from 7 over cd with 3 other places
Break The Silence - Course and distance regular. Likely to get to the front and often runs into the frame
Fly True - Another course and distance horse, ran eyecatchingly enough last time when allowed to lose most of his chances at the start. If he sits more prominently I expect him to outrun his 18/1 odds

I've also backed Fly True each way.

 

Well done!! I missed Gulliver on my reading of the pedigree, then when I looked back I really kicked myself. Half brother to a fibresand winner and Sayif looks a sire that could be useful to keep onside for the surface.

 

To be fair Nass, that fav stank the place out of it even before you take who trained it Inti consideration.

Thanks. He looked likely to take to it but then you do never know until they actually race. The first 3 furlongs I was kicking myself, looked to be struggling massively, maybe a bit of a culture shock to him. Once he got brought in on the left hand side and was avoiding kickback he flew up the home straight very takingly. Not sure there is much races for him to come back there for but got that win anyway.

 

Get in 18/1 winner. Now if only the shorter priced horses had run to form in behind!!

 

Then in the last - two I like here and both drawn low and likely to be the pace angles

Warriors Valley - blinkers on, likely to make the running and if they sweeten him up he will run a massive race. I am a bit confused as to why they've gone for blinkers today as he is due to be dropped another 2lbs in future races and Grade 6 is his level. I have to back him at 9s

Red Stripes - another likely to be up with pace and might just be best placed to take the win if Warriors falters in final furlong. His last win reads really well in my opinion and he loves this track and trip.

 

Wow, Mulzim mullered them, that was impressive. The two put forward ran well but were exposed to something finishing and Mulzim certainly did that!

 

The betting told the story that Ballard Down could not win. All the way out to 7/1 was an alarming drift. He wasn't that badly away and I thought he was in a decent position to strike but when he drifted across to the rails he weakened disappointingly. God help him off 90 in a handicap race if he can't land a Class 6 Claimer on such favouable terms.

Couldn't believe that the 11yo Mister Music was 5/4 Fav, I must have missed something there. Original favourite Bond Angel kept on well to score and belie the song that "The old grey mare, she ain't what she used to be"

Disappointed with Ballard Down there, his new trainer will need a rethink about finding a better opportunity than today's.

 

best way to get the handicap mark down!

 

Superb call. Well done.

 

Dune of Pilat has a Derby entry as well. Doubt many Derby entrants turn up at Sunny Southwell. Joseph stated the timing was right and they wanted to test him on the surface in case of future trips to America or Dubai. He will head back for a listed event at the end of February in Dundalk, all going well. Nice to see him being enterprising and taking the horse over anyway, it would be nice to see more owner/trainers do it either side of the Irish Sea.

 

Ballard who????

 

Jimmy

 

well done nass ,one of my cliff horses won there today , my selection came second ...........