Daily Racing Thread Friday 1st. November 2019

Structor now rated 140

 

Be lucky if they survive long enough to see our 10 in a row

 

that was posted on the wrong forum

 

Arizona ran a very decent race, him and Decorated Invader were clearly the 2 best horses in the race but they didnt have enough in hand to overcome bad trips.

 

Apparently it wasn't a particularly fast pace so I'm not sure why the 2 favs weren't ridden up closer to the pace early on

 

easier said than done over there, Decorated Invader broke well enough from 4 with plenty of space and the jockey didnt take advatange, Moore really had no chance on Arizona from the draw, he done well to get 2 wide going into the first bend, he was closer to the rail than Decorated Invader from stall 4.

 

Makes you wonder why it started fav

 

typical I went with the wrong one when I had it down to two and was leaning towards the winner in the first place, but hard race to be confident

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In the next I was immediately drawn to Daahyeh but, at the prices, I'm going Unforgetable ew at 33/1 with Lads and Coral. Form doesn't seem to relate to the massive difference in price

 

Should have posted that up earlier Joe. British Idiom not mentioned in the posts. I guess you're showing a decent profit. Bloody difficult these races

 

I know, I didnt post my reasoning for the later races, was already spamming too much.

I had nothing on British Idiom, I chose Wicked Whisper, but those were the two I was between over the last few days.

 

I'll just watch this next race then I'm off to bed where my wife is waiting patiently

 

How do you rate the chances of my 33/1 shot?

Edit, 70/1 over there

 

shes one of the few in the race I didnt bother to look at, laziness not checking out the 2 outsiders

 

Never anywhere near. That's why she was 70/1
Daahyeh ran OK to get 2nd and Albigna ran a cracker coming from last place on the bend

 

Another very hard race to pick, a lot depending on trip luck, Dhaayeh was unlikely to stay the mile, ran well with a perfect trip, Albigna was always going to have a lot to do, she ran on really well but the test was too sharp for her, probably the best horse in the race going forward. This race has been very good to me over the years, been on the last 4 winners of it.

The last race really should be on the Saturday, the winner will likely be made favourite for the Kentucky Derby and become the most high profile horse early next season, theyve had to put it on the Friday as its branded as a future stars night. Really looking forward to it, a lot of hype around Dennis Moment and Eight Rings has also been impressive. Hopefully they cut each others throat and set it up for Scabbard, barring that, hopefully one of them is impressive and looks a superstar.

 

Can you ask her if she runs in the Haldon Gold Cup?

 

RIP punters, millions in the satchels after that, the 2 favs where the most backed horses of the night, Dennis Moment down on his nose and race over at the start, probably wouldnt have won anyway given where Scabbard ran. Eight Rings the bigger disappointment given he had a perfect trip. One of the horses involved in the finish had only won a turf maiden. The winner was beaten 9L by Eight Rings over course and distance last time and started 45/1

 

Arizona's biggest problem was that he's not really a 117 rated horse. His Dewhurst run was rated 9 lbs better than anything he had done before. Looking at his last four runs on RPRs they read 105, 104, 116 and 104. The Dewhurst run stands out like a sore thumb as being overrated.

O'Brien and Moore reckon he is going to be a great horse next season but I will leave their feelings and eschew Bet365s offer of 10/1 on him for the 2000 Guineas. Bet Victor are still going 12/1 on Kinross winning the colts Classic and I can just about resist taking those odds.

Albigna ran OK on the night but I was totally against her because of the faster surface. Her best run was on mud in France and she was always going to struggle on the very different surface. Time will tell if it was wise bringing her here but if there are no ill effects I feel she will have a chance in the 1000 Guineas if the ground is on the soft side.

I thought Graceful Kitten was showing good pace as an outsider and he looked dangerous at the front until he seemed to try to jump the rail and collided with it losing all chance.

A'Ali ran pretty much as I expected he would. He's a 5F horse but has been doing his best work late in his races. It seemed unlikely he would enjoy the tr.ack and going in a Breeders Cup and so it proved.

Looking at the Racing Post today the journalist seemed puzzled as to why "Our" horses didn't do so well. You would think that after 30 years of Breeders Cup races we might all have realised that racing on concrete around greyhound tracks at the fag end of the season did not bring out the best of "Our" horses but perhaps not.

 

Having watched the fillies race again, I realised the winner was one of only a few I didnt properly look at in the race, going back and watching her races im absolutely kicking myself as she showed all the attributes you want for that race. Her dam was a class filly who won the BC Filly and Mare for the trainer as well and its crazy how overlooked she was in the betting, probably because it wasnt a big name track she won at last time, but her first 2 runs in New York were high class. She did get a nice trip but she had the tactical pace to get it comfortably from a wide draw and she has a turn of foot, its a strong combination for US tracks and id say she is going to be a very good filly over the next few years, originally I assumed Albigna but I think the best horse in the race won this one and Sharing is a star filly.

The quality of the juvenile turf races have undoubtedly got stronger in recent years, very difficult races to win now that a higher standard of 2yo is running on turf over there, Dhaayeh and Albigna have solid G1 form in Europe and they simply werent good enough last night. Pinatubo would have won the colts race but im struggling to think of many others id be confident about, Victor Ludorum maybe although it would have been a bit of culture shock for him.

I think there is a false perception that may have been true 10 years ago that we could send our 2nd raters over to clean up but its not as easy now, as a host of low to mid 100s types found out last night.

Arizona ran his usual 108-109 race, Pinatubo was nowhere near his National Stakes 128 in the Dewhurst and 117 is far too high for Arizona, common sense should have been applied there rather than trying to justify rating the winner high. I think hed be capable of winning the Juv Turf with a good trip in some years, like this slightly below par renewal, but he wasnt quite good enough to overcome the draw. Im almost certain that Decorated Invader was the best horse in the race, the winner is decent type himself but he did benefit from a dream trip while arguably the 2 best colts in the race had rough trips. I wouldnt rate Structor any higher than 110, Decorated Invader 112.

Id have the winner of the fillies race a few pounds higher than the colts, that looked a much classier race and the clock backs that up, half a second faster and on that ground thats quite significant, id have to rate Sharing 114-115 and id fancy her strongly against the colts with the allowance.