Daily Racing Thread Saturday 12th. Oct. 2019

Well done Stick. I'm happy with my place looked to have every chance too

 

Cheers fellas
Hope a few were on!

Thought yours was coming there to nail me there Smoke, good shout.

 

Steak tonight Stick, you effing legend. Love a Pipe horse, followed, thank you!

Little after time too.. after Becketts early wins I backed his last 2 with Bentley up, 2.50 e/w double BOG. Not sure the return as I only do shops. Good day after poor selections on the big ones.

Hoping Harris and Probert do well at wolves tonight for a bumper day!

Time for another beer. Great thread today.

 

Not good at Wolves with Harris. Put little of my winnings on my fav jockey of the moment, Tom Marquand e/w double, his 2 rides tonight. Just for interest!

 

The old fella passes on his thanks Stick. He had a fiver on your bumper after I passed on your comments

 

A review of the first two days of the jumps season, with plenty of good horses coming to the fore at Chepstow. Here are my views on the action -

Losing the battle, but can they win the war?

The two novice chases were very similar in many regards, they had short priced favourites who had been turned over by horses that had really good novice hurdle form but inconsistent profiles. It wasn't just the market story and placings that were alike either, both Lisnagar Oscar (1.12) and Reserve Tank (1.11) traded long odds on before being overwhelmed after poor jumps at the last fence.

I don't think either horse lost much in defeat (other than lots of prize money and unbeaten status) and both still should be followed for the season ahead, and I expect both to make themselves a career in graded chases. It was however a case of jumping to win races and both Ardlethen and Jarveys Plate did that, both carrying more momentum over the last, and then battling on to win their heats.

Lisnagar Oscar wasn't overly fluent in the early stages of his race, but when he got into the race his jumping improved and although wrong at the last, he did very well to chase the winner home with an ever diminishing distance between the pair at the line.

Reserve Tank is an interesting one, I don't think he settled in the race and his pulling of his head to the right was disconcerting. Robbie Power did a cracking job in the saddle but when he asked him to win his race at the last, he didn't find his stride and made a mistake that cost him lots of momentum and the race. He should improve massively for the run and if he gets a better pace to chase in a bigger field, I expect to see him develop into an equally good chaser as he was a hurdler.

Both of the winners are likely to appear at Cheltenham in the near future, and given their profiles over hurdles, I think both are beatable if reapposed by LO and RT. If these "wars" continue, I expect the next battles to be reversals.

Juveniles lacking in depth?

I hate to be negative, but the result of the juvenile hurdle was really disappointing, despite the impressive effort by Nordano giving weight away to many of his rivals. He was allowed to dictate the race and whilst others came to challenge, he won convincingly. However with 5 lengths covering the first four home, it is likely to be a moderate renewal of the race and Nordano surely doesn't have the scope to improve like many previous winners have.

That said I think this win flags up the effort of Goelette who was unfortunate to unseat his rider at Huntingdon when behind Nordano. That day he was travelling very well behind the pace and I think he possibly could be a pretty useful horse given the result of todays race. He is a notebook horse, and one who might go off a bigger price next time out.

Bumper form beats second season novice form

The Persian War was an interesting race on paper, and proved to be on the racecourse with Thyme Hill proving too good after the final hurdle. He is an impressive horse who should go very well in novice hurdles this season, prior to facing old foes at the Festival in March.

He led home a 1-2 for unraced horses over hurdles, with Fiddlerontheroof running exceptionally well to finish second, whilst many of the well fancied horses with experience didn't figure. Some Day Soon is probably the marker horse, but given he doesn't particularly want soft ground, it should temper enthusiasm for going overboard with the result.

 

He still had one to go!

 

Top shout Stick....

 

You are on a bit of a roll grade one.

 

Surprisingly good evening at Wolverhampton had a few winners so thanks to all who contributed

 

Looking at the times today I see Pinatubo put up a really good performance. On this evidence, having seen him draw away to beat Arizona by 2l after what looked like a potential struggle, he looks like the proverbial cert for the 2000 Guineas. But he is 5/4 and Earthlight is 9/1. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me as Earthlight beat Arizona by more than twice that distance in heavy ground in a relatively faster time. Earthlight's race was a furlong shorter but the extra distance should suit. Of course, Pinatubo did beat Arizona by 9l on better ground. Earthlight has also won on good ground in a fast time; but not so fast as Pinatubo (measured against standard times). So it would look as though, on the face of it, Pinatubo might be the better horse but we haven't seen Earthlight beyond 6f yet. They have the same sire and both have lovely pedigrees on the dam side but, if anything, I would think (and I stress think) that Earthlight has the more staying pedigree of the 2. My main worry about both of them is that they have been hard raced at 2. Pinatubo has had 6 races , the first in May when just 26 months old. Earthlight has had 5 races but didn't hit the racetrack until June at the age of 28 months

I don't do ante-post on classics before I've seen the contenders as 3yos but, it forced, I think Earthlight might just be the ew bet in the 2000 Gns rather than risk the win on the fav. For the Derby, Pinatubo is 7/1 whilst Earthlight is a staggering 33/1. That looks much more like an ew bet to me but I do worry about horses hard raced at 2. They are both unbeaten, as is Siskin, but on a line through Monarch of Egypt both Earthlight and Pinatubo have the beating of him

As always I will wait until I've had a good look at the 3yos next year before drawing any conclusions

 

And it won. Which was nice, but I had hoped places from the others, being a dreamer from last weeks show
Never mind, one will do!

 

So, early look at tomorrows cards. I will continue to back Tom Marquand, so small e/w speculative acca in his 5 at goodwood, but mainly on his last 2 for Channon, a good combo in my eyes.

 

Well done stick,first class.

 

Thank you and welcome to the forum.
Your moniker bought a little lump to my throat. My late Father In Law was known as Big Tone. An absolute giant of man in every respect. I still miss him a lot.

 

[QUOTE="Ron, post: 13229892, member: 1000896 My main worry about both of them is that they have been hard raced at 2. Pinatubo has had 6 races , the first in May when just 26 months old. Earthlight has had 5 races but didn't hit the racetrack until June at the age of 28 months

I don't do ante-post on classics before I've seen the contenders as 3yos but, it forced, I think Earthlight might just be the ew bet in the 2000 Gns rather than risk the win on the fav. For the Derby, Pinatubo is 7/1 whilst Earthlight is a staggering 33/1. That looks much more like an ew bet to me but I do worry about horses hard raced at 2.

As always I will wait until I've had a good look at the 3yos next year before drawing any conclusions[/QUOTE]
My goodness Ron, what must you make of the Rockfel winner, Rose of Kildare?

 

My goodness Ron, what must you make of the Rockfel winner, Rose of Kildare?[/QUOTE]
I wouldn't know what to make of that Bustino. Looks very choppy to me. What do you make of it?

 

Oh I see what you mean. 12 runs as a 2yo. Well that won't be winning any classics. 66/1 for the 1000 Gns. Should be 200/1