2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

Much improved run to finish 2nd @ 16-1

 

In the Middle Park Earthlight is solidifying at 2/1 after open JF with Mum's Tipple at 5/2. Andre Fabre has said he is not sure if Earthlight's action will be suited to Newmarket but his form is more solid with Raffle Prize being one of the best fillies this season, A'Ali won next time and even the Morny last Devil won a group 3 next time. Mum's Tipple is all about the one romp that was an exceptional margin of 11 lengths. In my experience these "Freak" margin wins tend not to work out long term and I have been with Earthlight thus far and stood with him here at 5/2 before I read Fabre's reservations regarding the track. Should be a two horse race really, I am not convinced by Siskin's form strength in depth.

Well Siskin didn't run but Monarch Of Egypt's effort suggests he would have had it to do. The O'Brien colt was three parts of a length behind Siskin last time but was beaten six and a half lengths today.

Mum's Tipple was reported to be lame in his left fore after the race. That makes the form slightly unsatisfactory and for me the 100/1 shot in third and 66/1 shot in 4th throw the strength of today's race into question.

Threat was not impressive last time out and he was disappointing today. Golden Horde did run his race though and that made the difference on his tied form with Threat. I thought Golden Horde was massive at 25/1 today and he was my outsider selection for the race.

With Golden Horde getting much closer to Earthlight than he did in the Morny and two horses rated 96 on OR coming third and fourth, it seems clear to me that Earthlight ran less well today than he did last time in France. As ever, the Racing Post assessor chooses to give Earthlight somewhere near his best and then raised Summer Sands 18 lbs and King Neptune 14 lbs to 112 and 110 respectively. Summer Sands' best RPR was previously a 94 and it is hard to fathom that the 100/1 shot suddenly found 18 lbs. Equally, King Neptune is an early season maiden winner, whose best RPR was 96. King Neptune ran to 92 last time at Doncaster in a Sales race, yet we are supposed to believe he ran to 18 lbs better in a Group 1 today on his 9th start of the season?

Happy to have backed Earthlight at 5/2 when betting opened and have no rule 4 deduction but I can't say I was impressed today and 8/1 for the 2000 Guineas has no appeal for me. I would have liked to see him come through and pull away in the last furlong today if he was going to be a Guineas colt. The owners have Pinatubo and there must be a strong chance they would split them and run Earthlight in France if Pinatubo trains on. That makes Earthlight a no bet for me, especially with the Middle Park record as a pointer to the 2000 Guineas and stamina unproven. You can be sure Ballydoyle will make sure the 2000 Guineas is run at a strong pace for whichever one of their colts lines up as their best prospect on Guineas day.

 

Im really kicking myself for not taking the 25/1 Earthlight, hes going to be a better horse next season, still growing and Fabre said only in the last month or so he has evened out, looks like he will probably stay a mile and is now proven on the course as well. Godolphin have a very strong hand for the Guineas.

 

Grendel mentioned that Charlton gets a lot of well-bred horses. I thought I'd list some of the 2yos he has, which I think meet that comment.
Bullfinch c by Kodiac out of Thistle Bird (dam Group 1 winner)
Conscious c by Oasis Dream out of Deliberate (half-brother to Headman: Enable family)
Nitro Express c by Dubawi out of Flotilla (dam won Breeder's Cup turf)
Tacitly f by Dubawi out of Timepiece (dam is half-sister to Passage of Time)
UNNAMED f by Oasis Dream out of Kazeem (half-sister to Al Kazeem)

None of these have run. Some may not run as 2yos, but I'd be disappointed if one or more don't show real promise this year.

 

Even top judges make mistakes ...........

 

Apparently 11 can

 

According to the RP Pinatubo is rated 2lb higher than Frankel was at the same stage.

Timeform already have Pinatubo rated 134p. A ridiculous rating for a 2yo. At the end of Frankel's 2yo career he had a Timeform Rating of 133p. Celtic Swing was rated 138. I think Try My Best was 131

Wide margin winners do seem to get inflated ratings

A Timeform rating of 135 is a pretty decent rating for a Derby winner so, If Pinatubo stays , he has already won the Derby and should win the Guineas doing handstands; just like Try My Best, who finished last

Cherry Hinton was an outstanding 2yo filly with loads of scope and considered a certainty for the 1000 Gns. Unfortunately the potential was never realised and her rating dropped 9lbs as a 3yo

I've seen it all before, so many times, so I will wait to see what these 2yos can do as a 3yo before I get excited

 

Quadrilateral was said to be favoured for the Oh So Sharp stakes because Roger Charlton felt as if staying at 7F for now was probably wise. They have had a change of heart and she is being supplemented for the Fillies Mile instead.

Betting is available and Quadrilateral is 9/4 Fav for the race, with Cayenne Pepper and Love in behind at 7/2 and Powerful Breeze generally 6/1 after those two.

The going is soft at Newmarket currently, so the obvious question is how Quadrilateral will cope at the mile trip in testing conditions. She may well be fine but until they do it you just wonder.

Cayenne Pepper seemed to stay well last time out but Jessica Harrington said yesterday that Albigna is leading the pecking order amongst her best fillies. Love is fairly exposed but she is a Moyglare winner.

Should be an informative race and a win for Quadrilateral will surely see her a clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas.

 

Overwrite will be a warm favourite at Brighton today [2.30]..currently even money

 

Wins easily @ 11-10

 

Kimari has done well to win from an unpromising position here, 11/2 gone for the BC but still some 4/1 if you are not on yet.

The filly she beat easily by 4L in the Bolton Landing went of to win a G1 at Woodbine on her next start, form is looking rock solid in England and the US.

 

I am on Kimari at 11/2 for the Breeders Cup and had heart failure watching her latest start. I thought she was cooked at the back of the field. It was a slow start but she just seemed to compound it by losing more and more ground on the leaders. It wasn't quite an Arazi performance but she put in a remarkable performance in closing down the field in such a short distance.

Kimari is my only bet in the Breeders Cup at this stage. Looking at her opposition I am not concerned about A'Ali because I thought he won a mediocre Flying Childers from Dream Shot after Alligator Ally flopped. A'Ali had a stone in hand of the others and like his Prix Robert Papin race he did not excite me much. I think the Crisford horse is due a reality check and I don't buy into the Racing Post figures that have A'Ali on 112 for his Flying Childers run and Kimari on 105 for the Queen Mary. Kimari clocked a Topspeed of 97 in the solid Royal Ascot race, while A'Ali's best Topspeed rating is only 80. Hard to fathom that A'Ali is 7/2 with one firm when you can get 4's on Kimari.

 

I think the Irish colt Wichita is the real deal, and was told by someone whose opinion is to be respected that at Ballydoyle they think he is their most improved juvenile and there is a lot more in the tank

So despite being up against Pinatubo in the Dewhurst on Saturday, the horse will run a big race [currently 4-1]

 

On all the ratings, either OR or RPR, Quadrilateral had a lot to find today. Still looking a bit backward she did find it, but by only a head. She turned the ratings (OR or RPR) round by 10-11lbs with Love, 12-13lbs with Cayenne Pepper and c.2lbs with Powerful Breeze. I think the form is solid and ties up the Rockfel and other 7-8f races we've seen. I'm banking on Albigna being behind Cayenne Pepper at the moment but the Boussac didn't look a strong race. So has Quadrilateral improved by those amounts or was she underrated? I bit of both I should think.
The best things to take away from the race were her turn of foot, the amount of scope she has and her resolute run when things didn't go right.

 

Another filly worthy of mention on this thread is White Moonlight. She is another Godolphin horse, but not by Shamardal and this time trained by bin Suroor. She started off in an all-weather race which she just got home in September. She then reappeared in what looked a good Novice event at Newmarket last weekend. As in her first race she was the second string of the Godolphin band but came home a very comfortable winner.

She is by the top American sire Medaglio d’Oro out of a Dubawi mare called Fitful Skies. Medaglio d’Oro was a top colt who seemed to get 12f (he was 2nd in the Belmont) and was 2nd in two Breeder’s Cup races over 10f. He is a grandson of Sadler’s Wells and the main US representative of this sire-line. On the distaff side there is even more interest for European fans as her granddam is Wajd (by Northern Dancer), who was a very good staying filly trained by Fabre. She also happens to be the daughter of one of the finest racehorses (let alone fillies) of the last 50 years. That filly was Dahlia, and it is rare to see the name of such a top filly in the pedigree of a useful horse.

White Moonlight has a lot to learn. I’m sure they’d love to get another start into this one on the turf, and there is a listed race at Newmarket in early November. Probably more of an Oaks prospect, if she can get another 2yo race under her belt and do well she could be an outside chance for the 1000G.

 

Pinatubo won well enough on the soft ground but it has to be a concern that Arizona was the runner up. The Coventry winner has actually declined since the Royal Meeting and came into the Dewhurst rated only 108. Similarly disappointing that the 114 rated stablemate Witchita could not beat his more exposed companion. As I had suspected Positive played no part after scrambling home last time and the laughable 16/1 for him with William Hill for the 2000 Guineas was quickly doubled but still makes zero appeal.

Pinatubo was said to be undecided as to whether wintering in Dubai or staying in the UK. Meanwhile Aidan O'Brien announced that Arizona and Witchita may go to the Breeder's Cup. That is a bad sign from my point of view. Last year's Breeders Cup winner Line of Duty was fancied by some for the Derby this year but I don't like the record of UK horses who have won at the late season meeting and Line Of Duty was last seen beaten at odds-on in France in what has been a winless season.

I think Aidan has a weak team this season and for me Mogul sits very short for the Derby based on a win in a weak looking Group 2. The Futurity is still to be run but at this stage I don't have a colt I fancy for the Derby. The fact that Aidan O'Brien is responsible for 21 of 34 entries in the Futurity says an awful lot about him not having a clear and dominant contender this season.

Quadrilateral did well to land the Fillies Mile. She looked beaten there but stayed on determinedly to get up late. I don't think it was a turn of speed that saw her home but rather a good staying performance. Powerful Breeze would not be a forlorn hope of reversing form in the future but you would probably favour Quadrilateral in terms of scope. For me, I would still worry about Charlton having her ripe for one day in May but opposition is getting thin. I was disappointed with Cayenne Pepper in the Mile, having felt she would have tried to go out there aggressively and make it a strong test. Jockey Shane Foley had stated he felt she was the best of Harrington's fillies but the trainer herself had said that Albigna was top of the pecking order in her opinion. Racing Post figures have Quadrilateral 3 lbs ahead of Albigna and some feel that Albigna improved for the soft ground in France. It was discovered that Albigna was in season when running in the Moyglare and she is unexposed at the mile trip she clearly stayed well on Arc day and the time was a lot faster than the colts later (Topspeed 92 to 55 in the Lagardere)

Victor Ludorum was impressive enough in the Lagardere despite the slow time and he is proven at a mile. He possesses a decent turn of foot and would be a good deputy for Earthlight if it became an issue. The trouble is that something would also need to beset Pinatubo for Victor Ludorum to end up at Newmarket in May. It seems likely Victor Ludorum will go French Guineas/Derby next spring.

I have always seen the Middle Park as a Sprinter's race and Earthlight is the latest to have to contend with perhaps the meaningless stats. The fact remains that only Zafonic has done the Middle Park/Guineas double and despite Earthlight having breeding that suggests a mile is possible, the visual evidence and the Prix Morny Stats suggest otherwise. Simon Rowlands used his stride length data to forecast whether Earthlight will be likely to stay a mile next year in an article on At The Races and he concluded that, based on his data and criteria, it would be odds against Earthlight being fully effective at a mile because of his stride distances and frequency of stride.

Palace Pier remains with potential for John Gosden but his latest race got a boot in the nuts when runner up Mars Landing ran a stinker next time. The Stoute horse ran a shocker with a RPR performance of just 53. I had backed Mars Landing that day in the belief that he could improve from 77 to something approaching 90 on RPRs and it was even more galling when the winner won with a figure of 84. Odd that the horse who won the same race last year came in rated 83 but those bits of data are useless when the horse in question runs 24 lbs short, rather than improving and that is why picking winners is so hard. Palace Pier was said to be going to the Lagardere but he never made the trip and it was revealed he had an injured tibia after his Sandown win. Just another of my ante-post bets to be injured after my money went on this year. Connections stated that the Greenham will hopefully be his next race in the spring and his sire overcame an injury to land that race before meeting his only ever defeat in the Guineas, where I was sitting on a decent bet on Kingman at 9/1 ante-post.

We have a better idea on the Guineas' I reckon unless something happens to Pinatubo but the Derby and Oaks look very open. It was a similar scenario last year and there may be horses who emerge in April and May next year for the Epsom Classics.

Best of luck to all going forward this autumn and winter.

 

Grendel, of the top two year olds you have seen this season, which would you say would be the most likely Derby sort? Purely on paper pedigree I would think that both Pinatubo and Earthlight are unlikely to see out 12f.

 

For the Derby, Pinatubo is 7/1 whilst Earthlight is a staggering 33/1
They have the same sire and both have lovely pedigrees on the dam side but, if anything, I would think (and I stress think) that Earthlight has the more staying pedigree of the 2.

Bustino would have a good view on this

 

I think Earthlight, on paper, is more stoutly bred. Basically you can compare the dam's sires, the granddam's sire and the great granddam's sire to assess this. So it's Dalakhani versus New Approach (where Pinatubo) wins, Barathea vs. Darshaan (where Earthlight wins) and Kris versus El Gran Senor (where Earhlight wins). A simple comparison that's for sure.
However Pinatubo may have a perfectly good Derby pedigree, it's hard to say. They both have speed that's for certain.
As for class (on paper) it's easy to get seduced by Pinatubo's greatgranddam being a full sister to Rafha (who won the Prix de Diane and has produced Invincible Spirit to Oasis Dream), but Earthlight's greatgranddam is an El Gran Senor half-sister to Golden Fleece.
I think their style of running is going to be the key feature.