Daily Racing Thread Saturday 12th. Oct. 2019

Saturday's Meetings

Hexham
N/H 7 Races 1:25-4:50p.m.
Fairyhouse
N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:20p.m.
Limerick
Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:30p.m.
York
Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m.
Chepstow
N/H 7 Races 2:10-5:40p.m.
Wolverhampton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:25-8:30p.m.

Racecards

At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

I see Sir Barney’s Hey Jonesy is running in the Sprint Trophy at York. Is it a wheelbarrow job Sir? 16/1 with some bookies, as low as 8/1 with others.

 

Wheelbarrow job for the bookies looking at latest placing!

 

Let's see Reserve Tank.

 

Hi,



Day two of the Chepstow October meeting and another really interesting card, which again asks a few questions that need pondering



Tried and Tested or Tried and Tested



The day starts with a juvenile hurdle, and it brings two interesting lines into the race, do we follow the tried and tested form of those that have already run, or do we follow the tried and tested approach of trainers who have an excellent strike rate in the race?



So those that have run are headed by Catch The Cuban, who was eyecatching with a capital E on his hurdles debut. That day he looked to be tailing off, before coming home best of all and just failing to get involved for the win at the end of the race. He doesn't look the most straightforward horse though, and it can't be taken as truth that he will improve again from that run.



Nordano won a nice race last time out, when going nicely from the front and finding plenty when asked to do so. I think that race was favouring front runners and it might be that under a penalty he finds this a very different proposition. I think he will have to improve further from that run to win under a penalty, and it will be interesting to see if he can.



Repetitio is the most exposed in the field, but comes from a yard I really like, and has shown an aptitude for the hurdles game. He is rated 118 here, and I would be disappointed if he could win this against Catch The Cuban and a few others.



So then we go to the other end, trainers who we know target the race, and to name but a few horses, Dolos, Keltus, Far West & Domtaline, it normally pays to have Paul Nicholls on your side here. Although as we saw last year with Quel Destin, it does often take a bit of winning, and you might bump into something like a Montestrel.



His runner here is Sir Psycho who has had just two runs under rules in the flat sphere, but comes here for the right connections and with a very good chance on paper.



Arctic Snow comes from the Evan Williams yard, and he is bred to be a flat star, being by Frankel!! and being out of Winter Solstice a Juddmonte mare who ran in group contests on the flat. He hasn't been seen on the flat and might just be a backwards sort, but it is fascinating to see him here and he could well run to a level.


The other newcomers aren't particularly liked in the market and it does look to be a case of Sir Psycho versus the proven form. Would they be disappointed if he didn't win? yes I think so.



Handicaps - a lot harder to solve than stakes races?



This card has a plentiful supply of handicaps and whilst they provide good betting heats, they throw up major questions and ones that can be a struggle to solve. The 2:45 revolves around whether Diamond Guy can regain winning form after 500 days off, whilst can anything come out of the pack and challenge, such as Highest Sun or Teqany. I honestly have no idea, and will be watching for the future...



Then we have the handicap chase in which Lil Rockerfeller is second in. This to me suggests it is a race I should look at in more depth!! I do not like Lil Rockerfeller over fences, and especially in a race like this which should take plenty of jumping. If all eight stand their ground then it looks a really interesting betting heat. The one that takes the eye is Ballyoptic who comes from a yard that are in form and importantly he has the course form too. He is highly rated at 152 though and we will see whether he can progress this year and a stalled season last time.



Relentless Dreamer has the Rebecca Curtis angle, whilst Cloth Cap has the progressive profile. Then you've got Captain Chaos who has some interesting bits of form in the book and probably more potential than most off a mark of 135. This is a nice race, and one I will probably take a closer look at tomorrow if all eight are due to go to post.



Field size shouldn't be an issue in the Silver Cup, but that race does ask the age old early season handicap hurdle question -


Proven form or Potential



This years renewal is really interesting with Ballyandy shouldering the burden of top weight and giving a stone or more to everything in opposition. He is a proven quality hurdler, but he has been disappointing over fences and needs to reignite his career back over hurdles. This should suit him, but surely something should improve past their marks here.



Didtheyleaveuoutto is one horse who I think has much more potential than his handicap mark suggests, and if they've got him ready he will take a lot of beating here. This is a horse who beat Thomas Darby last season! 135 is very lenient. However he is trained by Nick Gifford.



Zanza is an enigma wrapped up in a horse shaped box. He can be really good, or truly awful, and with everything in his favour tomorrow, I fear we probably will see the awful side!! He has so much ability.



Greaneteen surely goes chasing this season, but starts here off a mark that could be interesting but the formbook doesn't hold him up as being as good as Didthey, who is just one pound higher in the handicap. Similar can be said for Imperial Aura who is unbeaten in hurdles but hasn't beaten much either.



Then you've got Garo De Juilley, who comes here to retain his crown. He is interesting on the formbook and it wouldn't be surprising to see him outrun his odds. Coolanly is another with solid form in the book, whilst Man Of Plenty has the back class too.



A tricky tricky race, one that Didtheyleaveuoutto could hack up in if he is able to show his true ability in a big field handicap. At 18/1 I think he is worth chancing!!



What is in the Tank


Reserve Tank is going to make a smashing chaser, he caught my eye at this meeting last year, and after a faltering start he really showed his ability to finish the season with two grade 1 wins at Aintree and Punchestown. He is a beautiful horse with size and scope, but the question for him is can he run straight up to a high level of form? He will need to if he is to beat Secret Investor.



Secret Investor reminds me a bit of Topofthegame, he has bundles of talent, but he doesn't always get the result that you would expect. However his novice form is rock solid with wins in graded company as Ayr and good seconds to Ok Corral and Bags Groove. He to me looks like a horse who can build on what he has shown and I think he is the one that Reserve Tank and Posh Trish have to beat here. He has to give a penalty away, but he can do this in a small field and what could be a tactial race.

 

And more pertinently how many Lacey winners up north?!

 

i’ll go two , first and last races

 

Jumps racing is ****e but I do have to say I'm enjoying these write ups

 

Secret Investor NR

 

i backed Reserve Tank at 11/10 when that came through. Surely he goes off at 4/6?

 

Tony Martin to win the Ceasarewitch!

 

Previous course and distance winner and now on a very nice mark. Trainer has won last 2 runnings of race. Must have a big chance..

 

Tom Lacey Bumper double..
Hexham 4.50 - Neville's Cross 9/4
Chepstow 5.40 - Saint Arvans 16/1
Good luck today gents.

 

Also like Bernardo O'Reilly at 14s in the Sprint at York 3.50

 

Morning

3.20 Chepstow-Ballyoptic

Each Way @ 11-2 [Bet 365]

Stable got their horses fit and healthy

 

I know this is Sticks domain but i really fancy one at a price in what looks like a wide open race in the last at Chepstow.

5:40 - Kilbrook 25/1 ew

 

With the ground likely to be desperate I’d go for one of the horses with experience. The big yin down the bottom was second on debut in heavy ground and is well related.

 

Gentlemen for my sins I have been invited to Wolverhampton races this evening (60th Birthday ) . So any tips, facts or observations would be received with thanks

 

If you're an each way player then in the 6:30 Isabella Ruby stands out as worth a punt at around 25/1. Is winless so far but has run well over todays trip in the past and the race is piss poor today. Definite place chance.

Enjoy your evening