If your backing Ghaiyyath you don’t obviously believe in the bounce factor.Also stable form is a massive worry too.
One of the difficult things about this racing game is the matching of form lines. It's like groping in the dark. But we have to try something, anything to come to grips with the problem. So we end up relying on some kind of number juggling in the hope that we can get the right answer. And fair enough too. It has to better than throwing darts at a racing form sheet or selecting horses on the jockey's silk colours etc. But the real failure we face is in the faith of the systems we select to help the cause. The numbers you posted Ron are quite valid and informative, but racing vagaries of horse racing are so wide and varied that they make a mockery of our best efforts to solve the issues at hand. You may prove to be an utter genius here with your number crunching, and I hope so, but the sad truth is that it probably won't pan out all that well. Enable might win Ghaiyyath might run second and Magical third, with the rest following in order, but the four legged beasties will probably let us down .... big time. But I wish everyone all the best if they dip their toes in the pool.
Perhaps Sottass' Prix Neil time was a fluke although it was run in a faster time than the Foy or the 9 runner Vermeille run on the same day over the same course and distance. Perhaps the Prix Neil was run at a dawdle and doesn't truly stay 12 Furlongs but its dam sire is Galileo which is usually a srong stamina influence. Perhaps Sottsass' Prix Jockey club success wasn't much to write home about as he only beat Fabre's Group 1 winning superstar, Persian King who they thought hadn't stayed. However, Sottsass' Jockey club time was the fastest run Jockey club since 2005 when the distance was shortened and faster than Treve's Prix Diane run on similar Good ground, which was also the fastest Diane time in the last 20 years. Perhaps Sottass' last two runs are only average performances or perhaps he is being hugely underestimated
No number crunching from me Cyc. All I have done is taken the Timeform unadjusted rating and adjusted it how Timeform do (ie for 4yos and over add a pound for every pound they are carrying under 10 stone and for 3yo add a pound for every pound they are carrying under 9 stone 7 (I think maybe it should be 9 stone 8 in which case the 3yos should be upped by 1). I have amended the ratings above accordingly
"This year's Oaks winner Anapurna does not run in the Arc and she can be backed at 8/1 for the Group 2 Prix De Royallieu, a race where older stablemate Enbihaar is favourite." And Anapurna does the business.
I fancied her to have a chance in the Arc if it came up very soft so today was a must. I forgot all about it
They must have changed that this season because it's been a Group 2 for a fair while now. I didn't look Group 1 quality today to my eyes anyway. Anapurna was my Oaks filly but I didn't fancy her chances in the Arc. Obviously thinking it was a Group 2 she was in, I thought she was taking a drop in grade today. Oh well, they say ignorance is bliss.
I’d love to see enable win the arc but for me I’ll be taking her on with waldgeist at a price. I was very taken by his performance at longchamp earlier in the season on soft going.
Enable loves soft ground, plays right into her hands as she stays all day, for me the only possible danger to her is Sottsass, he has the star quality about him and the acceleration but a testing 1m4 may stretch him, on firm ground I felt it was going to be incredibly difficult to give him the weight. The likes of Magical and Waldgeist have shown time and again that they need things to go wrong for Enable to have any chance, Waldgeist just doesnt have the gears to win an Arc, he takes too long to get going but will stay on for 3rd or 4th. Japan is a typical Obrien high class plodder who has been steadily progressing but he was my Leger horse at the start of the season and id be disappointed if he won the Arc. Crystal Ocean was way below his best at York and the likes of King Of Comedy and Elarqam have been well beaten since, he was workmanlike in winning that race and he needs to produce something else to win this. Despite the ground and stamina concerns, I think Sottsass is still the one to be on at 15/2, I expect the top 3 to be Enable, Sottsass and Magical, but I had to have a few quid e/w on Fierement at 66/1 as hes a classy stayer and that price is too big, if he handles the ground he should run top 5.
As someone who isn’t a fan of flat racing, this is the one time that I’m genuinely nervous to see what happens. I was fortunate to go to the Arc to see Treve win both of her victories, but she was always one that I thought could get beaten. Tomorrow we’ve got an event that eclipses that and is probably even bigger than Frankel’s last race. It’s not a stellar field in my book but you’ve got a few unknowns. That said I just hope she wins and finishes on another massive high.
Japan is 9/4 with Paddy Power in the W/O the Fav market Ron. Sottsass is also 9/4 there but Mutamakina didn't do much for his form in last place today. I think the Royallieu was the wrong trip for her considering that Sottsass seemed to outstay her last time at 2F shorter. Ground was given as Very Soft at Longchamp today and Anapurna's winning time was given as a pubic hair short of 12 seconds SLOW. Sottsass is weak in the betting this evening at 8/1 and Ghaiyyath is pretty friendless at 14/1. Enable is solid and as short as 4/7. Bizarrely there is a W/O Enable market as well as a W/O Fav market. It would seem unlikely that Enable will not be favourite and in the Without Enable betting you can get 7/2 Sottsass, which will surely appeal to his supporters. In the same markets Waldgeist is 7/1 in the W/O Fav betting but 11/1 in the W/O Enable market. I think the old arse/elbow theory comes into play if betting at the lower odds on what amounts to exactly the same thing. Sadly for Ron, Japan is the same price on the W/O Enable market at 9/4.
Every horse bar Enable is "weak" in the betting, Waldgeist out to 25s on betfair, its a sea of red for the rest of the field as the ground moves the race further in Enables favour. Sottsass has been around 7/1 for a few months so its hardly a worrying drift at 8/1, hes already won over 12f and handles soft ground so there is only a slight concern about a more testing 12f finding him out, ultimately we will only find out tomorrow, its not like some of the mile fillies Rouget has run in this race who were highly unlikely to stay.
Cheers Grendel. I told someone to back Japan at without the Enable running. 9/4 seems reasonable to me but it won't look very clever if he is placed but another horse finishes in front of him
Where do you get this sottsass handles soft ground? Hasn’t won on worse than gd/soft.ghaiyyath has been beaten easily by waldgeist?
