Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2019

This year's Oaks winner Anapurna does not run in the Arc and she can be backed at 8/1 for the Group 2 Prix De Royallieu, a race where older stablemate Enbihaar is favourite. Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck can be backed at 33/1 for the Arc and that is more of an indictment of how poor the UK middle distance Classics were, rather than a plethora of talent at the head of the market.

Japan was 3rd in the Derby before winning an egg and spoon renewal of the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot. That race has worked out very poorly. He went on to the Grand Prix De Paris where he met a poor field and went off 2/5 Fav. Japan was workmanlike that day and I thought runner up Slalom was a tad unlucky. The form of that race has panned out awfully since. Japan seems to solely rely on his Juddmonte defeat of Crystal Ocean as a pointer to his chance in the Arc. I felt the Stoute horse didn't run to his best that day but the Handicapper raised Japan to 122, a 5 lb improvement. Elarqam was 3rd in the Juddmonte but he was thrashed behind Magical next time, to the tune of 7 lengths, while the Juddmonte 4th King Of Comedy was beaten 5 lengths by Benbatl when warm favourite next time. For me Japan's for does not stack up well. His earlier wins have seen zero future winners and I think his odds of 4/1 with Bet Victor are a joke.

I think Sottsass will flip-flop with Japan in the betting and be nearer 4/1, with Japan hitting 8/1. If I were playing bookie I would be embarrassed if I could not go 10/1 on Japan.

Ghaiyyath seems likely to be prominent and trying to grind the field down. His best form has been when dominating and William Buick is confident he can lay it down to Enable. I am not convinced though. Ghaiyyath is likely to make it a true test though and if it is soft there should be an emphasis on stamina and Sottsass faces tougher horses this time. I was not that impressed with him last time and even if taking a more positive vibe on the manner of victory it has to be tempered by modest enough opposition on the day. If he doesn't get home he may be a good lay to a place if you feel his stamina will run out. He's respected as a French Derby winner but Andre Fabre immediately declared that French Guineas winner Persian King had not stayed and he would reveal later that the colt finished very sore after the race and would miss the rest of the season.

Waldgeist is solid EW at 16/1 for me, while Ghaiyyath and Japan strike me as the poorest value in the race. I hope Enable wins it and I have her at 7/2 as my main bet. I feel she has been a bit lucky with the strength of opposition this year and last year, with her best form being on her 1st win but she has been tough and consistent and deserves the hat-trick for her owners being sporting enough to keep her in training at 5YO. Best of luck to her this Sunday.

 

Re stamina, Fabre probably reacted to being beaten comfortably by Sottsass, who was a previous, relative unknown, but the overall time of the race would suggest differently.
I'm not convinced that Enable is the Superstar that the betting would suggest and would have supported Treve against her if they had appeared togetherin the same race
For me, Sottsass is the horse with the potential to improve enough to win this year's Arc with a favourable lowish single figure draw.
50 / 50/ if he gets that on Thursday.

 

I have gone with Sotsass. Enable as good as she is is way too short.
The fast time posted by Sotsass and an improving 3 going on 4 i think is the value to risk best bet.
I will double up with Bataash.

 

AVD the 2019 Derby winner going to the BC and not the Arc. Had little chance anyways imo.

 

I think you are right about Sotsass. Though he has won over the distance you'd have to worry about him winning over 2400m in a true run race. His sire Siyouni (by Pivotal) more or less guarantees he'll go in the soft, but I'd still worry about the distance. If it's a dawdle followed by a sprint you'd have to fancy him.
I hope Enable does herself justice. I am not so sure she'd be at her best in really soft ground as she's such a good mover.
If it's a true run race and soft, I'd fancy Japan to get nearest her.
Agree with Ron about the statistic of Oaks winners (not that it matters now), how can winning a race preclude you from not winning another race?. Sun Princess would have won her Arc if it hadn't been unseasonably firm. But that's the Arc for you.

 

Literal reading of Crystal Oceans form suggests that at the weights there is only a couple of pounds between Enable and Japan. It has to be said as well that Japan has been a steady improver at 3. He can get close. Forget the others!

 

In terms of beating Enable he looks the only one really! I took earlier this week 16/1 about Magical which to me looks the EW bet of the race altho she can’t beat Enable you know what you will get from her and if you like Waldgeist than you have to look at her!

 

Arc draw currently 'live' on www.equida.fr. .......... a chance to possibly beat the AP prices....... Wm. Hill and The Tote still offering odds!

Ghaiyyath - 12
Waldgeist - 3
Sottsass - 1
Japan - 10
Soft Light - 6
Enable - 9

First seven drawn!!!!

 

Full draw:-

Sottsass 1
Fierement 2
Waldgeist 3
Blast Onepiece 4
French King 5
Soft Light 6
Kiseki 7
Magical 8
Enable 9
Japan 10
Nagano Gold 11
Ghaiyyath 12

I don't see the draw playing much of a part and there has been very little impact on the betting market thus far. Enable won from box 6 last year and the runner up Sea Of Class came from stall 15. Third home Cloth Of Stars was from stall nine and Waldgeist finished 4th from box 13. Waldgeist is ten stalls lower this year and Sottsass is in Trap 1. Ghaiyyath is widest of the lot in 12 and perhaps his connections will be less than enamoured with his position.

 

I think there is likely to be a consensus about the irrelevance of the draw this year. From what we know of the runners in the Arc, I do not see being drawn close to the rail as much of an issue for Sottsass and Waldgeist as both are likely to be held up early. The obvious potential front-runner Ghaiyyath has the ‘worst’ draw as Buick will have to use some of his horse up early to get across to lead. I do not know what the tactical plans might be for any of the Japanese runners but from a British/Irish perspective the ‘big three’ are drawn together with Enable sandwiched between Japan and Magical. I guess we have to hope that they do not spend too much of the race watching each other rather than the rest of the runners! If Ghaiyyath or one of the Japanese does not go on, I have a sneaking suspicion that Frankie will try to make all.

Much of the rest of the Arc day card looks quite a conundrum. Two Irish fillies amongst the ten for the Prix Marcel Boussac, none British; and only one Irish amongst eight in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère. In the Prix de l’Opéra, Aidan O’Brien has three while John Gosden has two, including Arc defector Mehdaayih. As usual there is a big raiding party for the Prix de l’Abbaye, most notably Battaash, MabsCross and Fairyland: interesting that Ten Sovereigns has defected. There was set to be a big raiding party in the Prix de la Forêt and it does still number seven of the twelve but the bigger names have defected.

From a betting point of view, the Saturday card at Longchamp may be of more interest with the nine-runner Prix de Royallieu, ten-runner Prix Chaudenay and ten-runner Prix Du Cadran looking the most open, especially the six British/Irish in the Royallieu that includes Arc defector Musis Amica for the home team.

 

Timeform's ratings unadjusted:
Ghaiyyath (130) rated 1lb higher than Enable (129) with

Waldgeist (127) a further 2lb below Enable and French King and Magical (125) a further 2lb lower than Waldgeist. Japan (127p) is rated 2lb below Enable but with a "p".
Sottsass (123p) is rated 4lb below Japan and also carries the "p"​

I make the adjusted ratings
Enable 141​

Ghaiyyath 139​

Magical 137

Japan 137p
Waldgeist 136
French King 134
Sottsass 133p

2lb doesn't seem much to have to make up over 12f. An unlucky/poor ride, slow star, having to race wide etc can easily wipe that out

And 5lb isn't a great deal to make up for a younger horse that is improving

If Waldgeist's rating is based on his Arc 2nd , then surely that is flattering as Enable was not 100% following an interrupted preparation last year

Ghaiyyath's romp in the German Derby may mean very little; but we probably had similar thoughts about Danedream and it was his first run over the trip and it was his first run after a 126 days break. That run, combined with his fast time victory over 10f at Longchamp, despite being heavily eased close home does ring alarm bells. His run in between those 2 races is a mystery though as he was comprehensibly beaten by Waldgeist over 10.5f on GS ground on the same course. So either he ran below form that day or Waldgeist has improved since last year, which would also ring alarm bells

Therefore I find it difficult to justify Enable going off at odds on. I think there must be a lot of sentimental money going on her and it wouldn't surprise me to see the 3yo improving colts, or Ghaiyyath, being backed against her causing her odds to ease on the day​

 

Ghaiyyath's Prix D'Harcourt win has worked out terribly. 23 runs, zero wins, 5 places and 18 unplaced runs from those he beat that day. Intellogent, who was third, went on to be beaten in a Handicap later. Ghaiyyath was beaten at odds of 1/3 next time in the Prix Ganay, where Waldgeist was an easy winner. The Godolphin horse is relying solely on his romp in Germany and I feel he has been grossly overrated for that runaway win.

There were so many horses who ran stinkers in the Grosser Pries that it looked suspect at the time and subsequent runs have made it look even worse form. Mark Johnston's Communique was rated 117 by the Racing Post coming into the Baden Baden race but he ran a shocker with an effort of just 26, tailed off like a Grand National also ran. Ashrun, who was next in the betting, narrowly bigger than Communique at just over 5/1, ran a shocker as well, recording 29 compared to his best RPR of 109. Other huge underperformers were Favourite Laccario, who was 14 lbs below his best in third, 4th home Colomano, who was 21 lbs short of his best on 92 and 5th home Accon who ran 19 lbs under his best RPR on just 90.

That was a race that looked freakish and with most of those prominent in the betting running so badly, you have to wonder what the actual worth of the form is?

The Grosser Pries favourite Laccario has run since and ran better with relation to his previous form but he was still beaten as 3/5 Fav in Group 3 company. Communique has been out again and while not quite as desperate this time he was beaten 32 lengths and rated 62 on RPR, so there is clearly somethinh amiss with him at the moment and he's not really been reliable anyway with several poor efforts to his name.

In general I feel Ghaiyyath is well short of the standard required to win an Arc and I believe his official rating of 127 is nonsense.

 

Not sure where you are looking for Ghaiyyath’s form. His most recent race was the Grosser Preis von Baden at Baden-Baden, which he won by half the track unchallenged on 1st September. Prior to that he was well beaten in the Prix Ganay. He won his two previous starts over ten furlongs at Longchamp, one his seasonal bow this year and the other his only race of 2018.

In the Prix Ganay and the Prix d’Harcourt, as you state Soleil Marin was a similar distance behind on both occasions, which does make the German race look suspicious. No horse that finished in arrears at Baden-Baden has won since, including runner-up Donjah, beaten in the Preis von Europa at Cologne a fortnight ago, and Deutsches Derby winner Laccario, beaten in a Group 3 race at Hoppegarten on Thursday.

I would agree that the Ganay looks like the most trustworthy form to judge Ghaiyyath by (even though it was ten furlongs) and that puts him behind Waldgeist in the pecking order.

 

Ghaiyyaths GPvonBB form does not show up on ATR so maybe thats where odddy is looking. The form of horses coming out of that race is not worth a toss though.

 

His rating may be nonsense but I think you maybe overlooking something.
When beaten by Waldgeist he wasn't far in front of Soleil Marin; but prior to that he was very impressive (apparently) when easily accounting for that horse, in a fast time, being heavily eased towards the finish. I therefore think he may not have run his race that day and in any event I think that distance was too short. By Dubawi out of a Galileo mare he probably needs the 12f to show his best. His romp in the Derby was after a 126 day break and, although beating trees, absolutely slaughtered them. There have been some really highly rated horses in the past (Eg Sea The Stars) who regularly beat some average horses by not far but why beat them by 30l when you can cruise to a 9l win without being extended. Obviously he is no Sea The Stars but just illustrating a point. I think you are both underestimating this horse who is having just his second run over a distance more in keeping with his pedigree. I not suggesting he will beat Enable but I wouldn't be writing him off as readily as you are

 

I can't have the distance being a factor in the Ganay. Ghaiyyath was impressive in the D'Harcourt over the 10F trip, so why would he be incapable of repeating that in the Prix Ganay over half a furlong further? The race report for the Ganay states that Ghaiyyath lost second place in the last 50 yards and it just didn't look as if running at 12F that day would have helped him close the 4 and a half lengths gap to Waldgeist.

Ghaiyyath is an imposing horse and Waldgeist is almost a little pony in comparison but he readily came past Ghaiyyath in the Ganay and it takes a bit of believing that Ghaiyyath is the better horse by 5 lbs on official ratings. I keep hearing that Ghaiyyath ran a very fast time in the D'Harcourt but the Topspeed rating for the race was only 71 and he actually ran to a much better Topspeed figure of 96 behind Waldgeist in the Prix Ganay.

The times are a bit misleading on occasion because Sottsass won in a faster time last time than Enable did in the Arc but his Topspeed figure was 109, while Enable ran to a figure of 114 in the Arc last season and to 116 the season before. She also ran to 115 in The Oaks and 115 and 117 in her two King George wins.

Maybe I will be wrong about Ghaiyyath but I had an early ticket on him at 16/1 for this years Arc and I binned it after the Ganay. I do not expect to be begging the bookie to pay me out on a "Lost" ticket. I think he's a horse who can bully a poor field but once headed I think he will down tools.

 

I'm not suggesting that he would have won that race in any circumstances. I was suggesting he may have had an off day bearing in mind how easily he had beaten Soleil Marin the previous month. To me, his pedigree would indicate that he would be a better horse over 12f. I doubt if any horse would have won the German Derby by more than 9l so I can't be knocking him for that, even though the form amounts to sfa. We shall soon see. But if he (or any of them) beats Enable I will not be happy, that's for sure. What is the betting without Enable? I think the best bet would be Japan to win, without Enable. 2/1 could be reasonable if available