Waldgeist is 1/2 in the Prix Foy, with Kiseki 2/1 and the other two runners 22/1 in a virtual match race. In the Prix Niel Sottsass is 2/5 in a five runner affair. It's nearly two years since Siseki won and nearly all his form is on concrete like going. Hard to see him beating Waldgeist. Sottsass has plenty in hand in my eyes. Racing Post Ratings suggest Mohawk is only 5 lbs inferior but I am calling BS on their 114 rating for Mohawk in the Meld. The race has not worked out at all and Mohawk looked a poor imitation of a 114 horse over at Saratoga when running to 89. Mohawk ran behind Sottsass in the French Derby and was 9 lengths in arrears. It seems unlikely that the Racing Post figures of only 5 lbs to make up are anywhere near correct. I doubt we will learn much about either Arc contender because they could probably win without showing their best and superiority can often mask any stamina doubts compared to a true championship race with pace and better horses to face. Little bits of 16/1 left on Waldgeist. I think he should be half those odds. If Ghaiyyath is out to gallop them into the ground and Enable's habit of finding plenty in the closing stages, it could be a tough test of stamina for Sottsass and if he comes unstuck in the Neil and Waldgeist wins, we could see them flip-flop in the betting. Either way, I feel Sottsass is short because the French Derby has not panned out well at all.
Not much change in the Arc betting following the Irish Champion and the St Leger. I think it would be reasonable to assume that Logician will not be heading to Paris given that the owner has the favourite on a hat-trick; and we know that Magical has only given Enable a race over more than ten furlongs in the Breeders’ Cup. 4/5 Enable 5/1 Japan 8/1 Sottsass 12/1 Ghaiyyath 16/1 Waldgeist, Magical 25/1 Anapurna, Blast Onepiece, Slalom 33/1 Anthony Van Dyck, Suave Richard, Deirdre, Siyarafina Arc Trials day may not tell us much as Sottsass has a pacemaker in a five runner field. If he gets beaten he will disappear. Waldgeist only has three rivals in the Prix Foy and I cannot see his odds changing much unless he runs very badly because we know Fabre never has them fully wound up three weeks before the big race. Oaks winner Anapurna is in a competitive field for the Vermeille but Gosden surely knows she cannot beat Enable – she ducked the Yorkshire Oaks and I can only assume Gosden told the owners to stay at home.
If the ground comes up soft it might be a very small ew on Annapurna. I daren't back Enable; I'd never forgive myself if she got beaten. I hope she turns up looking ready to run for the hattrick as Treve didn't for her hattrick attempt
I was there when Treve was up for the treble and as soon as she walked in the parade ring, I knew that she would not be winning. I had seen her the previous years at the Arc meetings and Arc Trials meetings, so I knew how she behaved in the parade ring (quite frankly, I never got a decent photo as she was normally tossing her head around and full of life) but that last year she just had her head buried in her chest and seemed lifeless. I never backed Enable ante-post this year as she was 3/1 before the flat season started and so I wanted to see the three year olds first. If there had been a decent three year old, I think Enable would be beatable by a proper 130-rated type champion but there are none. I hope that everyone wants her to win to cement her place in racing history, although obviously punters go looking for some each-way bet in case she has an off day. Gosden reported mid-week that all is well and her training is going as planned, so hopefully she delivers.
Yes I was there as well with the wife and Amanda. Went to back Treve but after seeing them in the parade ring we backed Golden Horn and New Bay.
I'm still revelling in the fact that I tipped Enable for the 2017 Arc at 20/1 immediately after winning the Oaks. It was pointed out to me at the time that Oaks winners don't win the Arc at 3. My response to that was but Derby winners do and she is better than the Derby winner. Sorry to blow my own trumpet but I had never been so confident about a 20/1 shot, probably never will be again, and these days get it wrong so many times, that it's a memory I'm clinging on to, fondly
I know I am talking through my pocket and a touch of favouritism (nationalism?) however I wonder how Danedream would have got on in a second 'Arc' had injury not intervened. If memory serves me badly she had won, although it was very close, the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and the Grosser Preis at Baden Baden then injury struck.
The owner is Helena Springfield Ltd When she won the Oaks the owners were 1st owner: Helena Springfield Ltd (Anapurna) 1st breeder: Meon Valley Stud 2nd owner: Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor (Pink Dogwood) 3rd owner: Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith (Fleeting) So either she hasn't or the RP has not yet caught up with the change. Wouldn't surprise me
Not as far as I am aware. As Ron stated, she was owned by Helena Springfield at Epsom and still appears to be in their black and white colours in the Vermeille. In the Yorkshire Oaks, I think Lloyd Webber allowed Lah Ti Dar to run because there was plenty of money for third place and Group 1 black type to be collected when she is clearly not a Group 1 filly in any other year. Connections may still be looking at running Anapurna in the Arc as she will get all the allowances as a three year old filly but obviously she will not have Frankie’s services. Will her Vermeille jockey Oisin Murphy pick up the ride if he is not retained to ride something else?
Just checked and Enable is the only English Oaks winner in the last 100 years to win the Arc, Annapurna has no chance after scraping home with a dream trip in a poor renewal.
I'm not suggesting that Anapurna will win, or even place, but she won the Oaks despite the fast ground. If it comes up soft at Longchamp it will improve her chance of a place Re the stat, I'm not a believer in meaningless stats. If they ran in the race every year it would mean more, or at least imply something. But they don't run every year (presumably because the Derby winner runs (probably) every year) so it's pretty meaningless. The more important question is which is our best 3yo
Sottsass just alleviated any concerns about the trip and he looks the best 3yo by a mile, for me he is the Arc winner, I dont think Enable will be able to concede the weight to him and im going in big at 8/1.
Unless four horses are supplemented for the Arc there will not be a maximum field, so Enable will face at most fifteen rivals on Sunday after the first forfeit stage. She is one of only three British entries remaining with her three-year-old stablemate Mehdaayih, winner of the Cheshire Oaks, and Godolphin’s Ghaiyyath coming in off the back of a facile victory in Germany. Aidan O’Brien has only left three in the race with Japan as expected the main three year old ahead of Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck and older filly Magical – beaten by Enable on all four occasions that they have met; and surely better over ten furlongs. The home challenge is led by Prix Du Jockey Club winner Sottsass and Prix Ganay winner Waldgeist, who has not beaten more than seven rivals since he was a two year old. The Japanese have three contenders in Kiseki, Blast Onepiece and Fierement while Nagano Gold travels over from the Czech Republic. The Paris weather forecast is set fair until Sunday, when there are potentially showers, so the ground is unlikely to be very soft unless France Galop turn on the taps. That is surely good news for unproven stayer Sottsass as he certainly does not want it to become a strong test of stamina.
Looking through the form of Sottsass I think, if it became soft, this would be no inconvenience to the winner of the Prix du Jockey Club.
Over ten furlongs, soft ground would not be an issue for Sottsass but over twelve furlongs it then becomes a proper test of stamina, unlike the Prix Niel where the pacemaker dawdled in front and could probably have won the race if the jockey had kicked on. With regard to it being a sub-standard Arc, this has been a sub-standard season with the Classic generation underwhelming and the two older stars Enable and Crystal Ocean, pretty much the same as last year.
I thought that Sottsass' prix neil was the fastest of the trials and a faster overall time than last year's Arc !
In terms of potential ability, Sottsass' Prix Jockey club was also faster than Treve's Diane on ground described as similar. I know pace of race, true state of ground and other considerations can apply but even still....
