Saturday's Meetings Curragh Flat 8 Races 1:25-5:30p.m. Haydock Flat 7 Races 1:30-5:00p.m. Chester Flat 7 Races 1:35-5:05p.m. Market Rasen N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m. Navan N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m. Newmarket Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:25p.m. Ripon Flat 7 Races 1:55-5:20p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 5:20-8:20p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
This is the only race that interests me tomorrow, I think its a really interesting renewal of the race and one that should prove informative for the early part of the season. This race is often interesting because of the differences in the handicap marks, this year, much like last year is dominated by a very highly rated handicapper (152 both years) which pushes others out of the handicap. This isn't always the case, as two years previously it was a much tighter handicap which had a top handicap mark of 138. The other interesting snippet about the race is the returning of winter horses against horses that have been on the go over the summer. In the last ten years, only one horse has won from a lay off of over 100 days, which suggests you need a race fit horse to win this. However, one thing to note is that the race is normally run on good going and tomorrow it is more likely to be softer, which might play into more traditional NH horses strengths. So that said, my view on the race is - Likely to be a good pace with Gumball, Mohaayed and Sea The Sea in here, and that means that we can expect a good solid race and hopefully no hard luck stories. I am put off Mohaayed and Sea The Sea because of the likely early pace, the former is returning from a break and I think they need to get his handicap mark down, so to carry a best part of a stone more than this field will surely prove too much for him. Sea The Sea was put in his place by Pacify last time and I think from out of the handicap and into stronger company he will get found out again. Gumball is interesting, I think he is very fairly handicapped over hurdles and I do think he could have a good season ahead of him, but my concern is that he has had a break and if he is taken on for the lead he might not get the run of the race. He is a keen going sort so if they go hard early, it will take a mighty effort to hold them at bay. Azzurri is interesting for the Skelton's, they have Mohaayed holding the weights, and that gives this horse a very nice racing weight. He is best known as a chaser but is taking on smaller obstacles for the first time in a long while. I think he has a few things to prove, so I wouldn't be wanting to take a single figure price about him. Scarlet Dragon is fit from the flat and is in fair form, but will he translate that back over hurdles? I thought his run in the big Sandown handicap was very good for this grade and he is on the same mark here, my worry is that he isn't as good over hurdles as he is on the flat and that softer ground will hinder him and he isn't one to take at really short odds in a competitive field. So my pin has come down on something further down the betting, and that is Definitelyanoscar for Harry Fry. This mare won on her last race but with her jockey weighing in 3 1/2lbs under weight she was thrown out. On that form, I think she is fairly handicapped at 120, and whilst she has to carry an extra 6lbs for being out of the handicap, that doesn't worry me too greatly. She has a fitness edge over many of the field, and I think the conditions will suit perfectly. She should be able to travel in behind runners and be produced with a run. She is a course winner from her bumper days, and she definitely has the ability to prove better than a 120 horse. 12/1 looks fair to me.
The Cambridgeshire tomorrow and The Punt has gone for ANOTHER TOUCH 33/1 five places 30/1 six places. Wouldnt normally go near RP tips but he could be on to something here. In the MR bumper I am with STIMULATING SONG who should have won at Worcester but for his rider losing an iron in the latter stages. Young Jonjo on tomorrow so that is a massive plus.
In the Cambridgeshire I’m going for top of the weights and bottom weight. Dubai horizon comesoff a lay off not well handicapped but fallon jr takes five off. Music seeker at the bottom at a big price with a claimer being a course winner with lots of rain forecast I’m expecting soft in the going and am thinking a low draw being a negative with strong gust blowing across the track from the devils dyke. Overall a pretty rotten day for horse racing on the rowley mile.
The Middle Park is a cracking race, crammed with Group winners. It says something that the Group 2 Richmond Stakes winner and 113 (OR) colt Golden Horde can be backed at 25/1. Golden Horde upset Threat in that Goodwood contest but the Hannon horse is less than half his odds at 10/1 today. I was on Threat last time but not really impressed by the style of the win. He needs a good bit more here. Even though Threat is being backed it is stablemate Mum's Tipple who looks as if he may go off favourite. Nothing special on debut, he dismantled his field by eleven lengths next time and was briefly rated higher than Pinatubo on some lists. I am not keen on wide margin winners, especially in sales races and I reckon Mum's Tipple may be the wrong favourite for the race. Earthlight was nothing startling on debut but on his third start I thought he was getting the hang of it when he pulled clear of his field by four lengths. I backed him in the Morny at decent enough odds and thought he was going to win decisively at one stage but Raffle Prize did give him a fright in the end. Fabre nominated the 2000 Guineas as his target and the Dewhurst was mooted as his next race. Pinatubo changed those plans though and Earthlight comes here, with the leading 2YO going for the 7F race, where he will be mightily short in the betting. Andre Fabre said this week that he was not sure if Newmarket would suit his colt's low action. I had already backed him before that statement was made and am hoping his fears are unfounded. If the rain comes it may minimise the track effect and the Shamardal colt is proven on soft ground. Pedigree suggests Earthlight should get a mile but I am worried about his stamina until I see him over further. Prix Morny winners tend to be sprinters and the record of winners going on to glory at Newmarket in the Guineas is poor. Siskin is tipped up in places but seems ominously weak at a best priced 11/2 with Paddy Power. I am not getting a good vibe from his form of two wins over the reopposing Monarch Of Egypt. The O'Brien horse won well on his debut but met with a setback and missed Royal Ascot. He was readily held by Siskin next time he saw the racecourse but got closer in their second clash. You get the feeling their should not be too much between them and the O'Brien horse has been nibbled in. Lope Y Fernandez was tried at 7F but was no match for Pinatubo on two occasions. Dropped to 6F he won the Round Tower, a race landed by Ten Sovereigns last season. Quite a tidy winner that day but staying at 6F here looks like an afterthought change of direction in the colt's career and he goes up in class against better, and potentially speedier, colts than he faced last time. 16/1 looks about right for the son of Lope De Vega who had an early reputation but the genie looks well out of the bottle now. It seems to rest between taking the view that Mum's Tipple announced himself as something special with a freakish performance last time or taking the opinion that Earthlight had a bit more in hand than the bare margin in a strong looking Group 1 Prix Morny last time. Raffle Prize runs in the Cheveley Park earlier and a win there will surely see support for Earthlight in the aftermath. For me Earhlight is readily preferred at 9/4 than Mum's Tipple at generally the same odds. As an outsider I would select Golden Horde at 25/1. The Cox horse has a fair bit to do to catch Earthlight on Morny form but he is tied in pretty closely with Threat and can be backed at 2 and a half times the price. I would be a layer of Siskin, who only comes out tied for 4th on Official Ratings. I'll pass on Raffle Prize simply because I don't trust Johnston with short priced runners. Kameko gave Positive a huge fright last time and looked like the mile of the Royal Lodge would suit but Highland Chief is no mug and at 9/2 he is tempting. I have a nag about whether Positive ran to his best last time and Kameko was awarded a huge increase in his rating, that may flatter him if the Cox horse was below his best that day. At the relative odds Highland Chief appeals more after being 3rd in a Chesham that has worked out well and with Paul Cole 2/10 this past fortnight the coin came down in his favour for a bet. The usual single figure price on a Gosden runner in the Cambridgeshire and I left the other shorter priced ones alone as well. Beringer was 3rd in the Lincoln but he stays further than the mile. He is only 1 lb higher than his last winning mark and has a 5 lb claimer helping with the weight. Drawn in the middle he appeals as likely to give a good account at 20/1 each-way with 8 places up for grabs. 1.50 Newmarket Highland Chief 9/2 3.00 Newmarket Earthlight 9/4 3.40 Newmarket Beringer 20/1 EW 8 places.
Good Luck My ITV Bets are 1.50 Newmarket-Surf Dancer @ 11-1 [Paddy Power]..each way 2.25 Newmarket-Dark Lady @ 14-1 [Bet 365]..each way 3.15 Haydock-Hyperfocus @ 11-1 [Bet 365]..each way 3.40 Newmarket-Le Don De Vie @ 15-2 [Bet 365]..each way [5 places]
Was just about to say that G1, as it rained non-stop round these parts all night and still going at it this morning...!!
New member here been trying to get access to this site for ages,somehow I just could not get in, anyway here now and I must say have really enjoyed reading the posts put on the daily racing thread, whilst also making a few shekels out of it at the same time.Do not bet a lot like to be a bit selective thanks for having me.
Every now and again i have a bet on the greyhound, would i have to post that in the greyhounds section.
