Daily Racing Thread Saturday 21st. Sept. 2019

Saturday's Meetings

Newbury
Flat 8 Races 1:10-5:15p.m.
Ayr
Flat 8 Races 1:25-5:30p.m.
Gowran
Flat 8 Races 1:35-5:25p.m.
Chelmsford
A/W 8 Races 1:40-5:40p.m.
Catterick
Flat 8 Races 1:50-5:50p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:35p.m.
Wolverhampton(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:25-8:20p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

I’ve been saying since the Spring that old boy HEY JONESY would win a big sprint handicap this season and he gets his next chance to do so in tomorrow’s Ayr Gold Cup (3.50).

With just 1 win to his name from 16 starts Hey Jonesy perhaps isn’t the most reliable but I remain Convinced, with a capital ‘C’, that when things all fall right for him, off his current perch (of 103), he is going to be very hard to beat.

He has some decent placings at Group 3 and Listed level to his name and most eye-catchingly of all has on his CV a 4th in a ‘Middle Park’ and a 5th in a ‘Commonwealth Cup’ as well. In the past year has also finished runner-up on 3 occasions with the highlight being when he went down by just 1.25 lengths, off levels, to Dream of Dreams (subsequently beaten just a head in the Group 1 ‘Diamond Jubilee’ and currently perched on 118).

Not a wager for everyone as there is a large element of risk due to the fact that he will need things to fall right but if they do then I think Hey Jonesy potentially could make a mockery of his mark of 103. At current prices of 25/1 I think this one could go really close up in Scotland, of the morrow, and I rate him a sound each-way proposition at value odds.

Have a tickety-boo weekend, everyone, and good luck, team.

 

Into 12s

 

I like Kevin Ryan's other runner in the Ayr Gold Cup, Major Jumbo @ 16/1. Got stuck in the mud in this last year but has run with credit in some hot races this season. Better ground and decent draw.

 

I did Summerghand at 16/1 ante-post but win only because the better each-way terms were not on offer then. He was no match for Dakota Gold last time but was trying to give him 1 lb in that race and would be getting 8 lbs if they met again following Dakota Gold's hat trick and rise to an official rating of 110. Summerghand is a hold up horse and came through to lead his side home last time. With a middling draw today he should run well in a race where Buffer Zone and Gulliver are deemed to be the well handicapped ones but are skinny.

Hey Jonesy has a first time visor on but that needs to work the oracle after a long losing stretch and at 10/1 he makes no appeal to me. Arecibo placed at double carpet for me last time but is much shorter today and I prefer stablemate Summerghand. Of the others I thought Louie De Palma had a squeak at 25/1 7 places EW. He's steady enough and from box 10 seems better value than some of them.

Summerghand win at 16/1 and Louie De Palma EW 7 places 25/1 were my two against the field.

In the Mill Reef Pierre Lapin makes his 2nd appearance after a break. A ready winner back in May he beat what was probably an average field but he did it in grand style. He seems short enough and needs improvement and I am not keen on horses missing the guts of the flat season before making their second start. I went for Impressor who won well at Salisbury from Stoweman who went one better next time. Impressor should come forward again for Marcus Tregoning and may surprise them at 8/1. Mystery Power was disappointing last time and bids to bounce back. He's yet to race at 6F though and the Superlative Stakes he won has thrown up zero winners since. I passed on the Hannon horse for those reasons and went with Impressor, who looked speedy enough last time and more than just a precocious sort.

Impressor 8/1 to beat Peter Rabbit's French cousin.

 

Good Luck today

4.05 Newbury-Declared Interest

Each Way @ 11-2 [Bet 365]

Told she has ability

 

Todays Scoop 6/EW Heinz:

2:00 Ayr - Boston George 15/2
2:40 Ayr - Get Knotted 14/1 (6 places)
2:55 Newbury - Malotru 5/1
3:15 Ayr - Al Rasmah 13/2
3:30 Newbury - Gibbs Hill 10/1 (4 places)
3:50 Ayr - Gulliver 7/1 (7 places)

I've also had a single on Migration @ 13/2 in the 3:30 at Newbury and done the reverse forecast with Gibbs Hill.

Football, NFL and College football bets all on. Lets hope for a good (profitable) day. Good luck all who play.

 

Ayr

15,50 Arecibo 10/1 e/w

Newmarket

17,35 Haddaf 9/2

 

A couple of bets today:

In the Mill Reef stakes I like Royal Commando 12/1 each way

In the Ayr Gold Cup I like the look of Gunmetal and Intisaab. The former has dropped a couple of pounds, always attracts a bit of money in these sort of heats and Oisin Murphy is booked. Tempted but he is due to drop 4lbs in future so perhaps next time is best to be on. Intisaab is very favourably weighted, has a good claimer on board taking off 7lbs and horse likes Ayr. His last run was a bit better too so I have plummed for Intisaab 14/1 each way 7 places.

Good luck all.

 

Definitely giving the Ayr Western Meeting a miss – a rare year this that the ground is not desperate.

In the Group 3 race at Newbury 2:20 (used to be the Arc Trial), I expect DESERT ENCOUNTER to prove too good in a race that he has won before; but facing just four rivals this time. Frank has won on him the last twice so he is not too much of a negative.

The Mill Reef is usually a good race for punters backing the first three in the market and Roger Varian’s once-raced Pierre Lapin may hop past a few of these over the winter but, despite the penalty for winning the Superlative Stakes, I like MYSTERY POWER, disappointing on easy ground at Goodwood behind Pinatubo and dropping a furlong here. Interesting jockey booking. Impressor impressed last time at Salisbury but that was on easy ground and he may set this one up if trying to make all. I am not sure that Malotru’s five-length fourth in the Gimcrack is all that good (was a 20/1 shot) and he may find a couple too good here as well.

 

In the Firth Of Clyde I have backed Orlaith. She was a bit of a surprise packet last time but quite impressive and she has improved with every race this year from a modest enough start. Reported in good form and she narrowly tops the Racing Post Ratings for the race. She looks like the type who might be exposed after the number of runs she has had but it looks like she took a fair bit of time to get the hang of it and any further progress will make her hard to beat today. I thought 4/1 underestimated her chance today.

3.15 Ayr Orlaith 4/1 to prove her last run was no fluke.

 

afternoon,fellas!

newbury,1 45:

the big question is: can DAKOTA GOLD take his form to the next level? well,i think,he can,as he might not have stopped progressing just yet,and i expect him to go in again today.

 

12 months ago FLYING PURSUIT ran third in the Gold race off 100 and today is in the Silver race off 87. Either the horse is regressive or it is a master stroke of handicap plotting. At 25/1 I am happy to take a chance.
INTISAAB is more of a dart in the main race. It could be inspired putting the claimer up today. Summerghand was another who I thought ticked a lot of boxes.

 

ayr,2 00:

KYNREN is ultra consistent,and this represents a slightly easier assignment today.the only blemish is,that his last win is over two years ago,but hes been competing at a high level throughout since then,and really deserves to get back on the scoresheet.

 

UMMMMMM!

Strokes chin

 

newbury,2 55: MILL REEF STAKES

some very interesting candidates on show here.i think,MALOTRU could run well,if resuming his progress.he ran a cracker when 4th in the gimcrack stakes last time out,despite not having the best of runs,and the form is working out pretty well.so,definite shout today.