Well Soldier's Call did manage to beat Fav Soffia home but only in 4th Place. Invincible Army ran well at the 5F trip. It was two very exposed fillies who fought it out and Fairyland was hardly winning out of turn after a barren spell. Mabs Cross looks past her sell by date and it looks unlikely she will defend her L'Abbeye crown. I felt Soffia's rating of 120 for her last win on Racing Post figures was nonsense and she looked much more like her previous best of 107 in today's race. Bad favourite I thought.
This is a big step up for Pinatubo, I said at the time Armory will run to a much higher level here than he did last time, Obriens National Stakes winners always stepped up big time on their Futurity runs and you only have to look at the Moyglare there with Love looking a different horse. Pinatubo is a worthy fav but this race isnt going to collapse like the Vintage and I expect Armory at least to give him a fight so I have backed the Obrien runner against the fav. Could have a very short price fav for the Guineas if Pinatubo wins easily again.
Unimpressed by Sottsass in the Prix Niel. The lad on the pacemaker spent half the race looking over his shoulder, they finished in a heap as the winner just squeezed through to beat a Group 3 horse by not much. The pacemaker could probably have stolen that race if he had gone for home instead of waiting for his stablemate. The time nothing special.
The jockey nearly rode the worst ride of the century on Sottsass - Spencer-esque Jesus that Pinatubo though - **** me
I was not impressed by Armory last time. I thought his increased rating was nonsense based on the weak horses he beat. A 50/1 shot chased him home and the ratings given were bollocks in my opinion. He's struggled to beat his stablemate today and Arizona didn't stay the 7F in my opinion. Pinatubo is the best I have seen since Frankel and perhaps has even eclipsed the Legend's form at 2YO. Frankel was rated 126 at 2YO and I have to nudge Pinatubo past that figure by a couple of pounds. Matching Frankel's progress at 3YO is another matter though but very few, if any, can lay a glove on Pinatubo for now and if Armory is Aidan's best, he is in mucho trouble. I thought Armory might be a serious 2000 Guineas player but my heart sank as they crossed the line in the Futurity and sometimes you just have to recognise when a dream is over. After today's show Armory at 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas is about as appetising as an excrement butty. In the Irish Leger I never felt Cross Counter was travelling. He stayed on in a laboured fashion but looked like he needs 2 miles. It was hock deep when he won the Melbourne Cup and perhaps he will need the mud to have any chance of repeating that success. He did come through late to win in Australia last year and he doesn't look to have made much progress from 3YO to 4YO. Kew Gardens came from a long way back for a decent 2nd but again you would question if he has progressed much with age thus far. Poor old Capri looks a shadow of the horse who won the Irish Derby and the St Leger as a 3YO. I wasn't impressed by Sottsass in a race where he beat a weak field. 7/1 for the Arc makes no appeal and Waldgeist at 14/1 is a no brainer as better value in my opinion. Japan at 5/1 is terrible value.
I think Frankels Royal Lodge performance was better but because it wasnt a G1, Pinatubo will end up rated higher. Hes no Frankel imo, Frankel wasnt the finished article until he was 4yo, Pinatubo is already at the peak of his powers. Armory stepped up as expected, the likes of Geometrical and Roman Turbo who finished close up in the Futurity were beaten out of sight in this higher grade, Arizona is a pretty decent yardstick and this was a career best for Armory, just bumped into a freak 2yo. Could turn into a Derby prospect like the runner up from this last year. Not sure how anyone couldnt be impressed by Sottsass today, to have the gears to still win comfortably after being blocked for a run most of the straight, Peintre Celebre got beat in a similar scenario, really not sure exactly what more the horse could have done given the circumstances. He still produced a faster time than the other 2 trial winners despite the adversity and I was extremely impressed, only top top animals can overcome trouble in running like that and you are left with the impression he is capable of much better when 100% and with a clear run. He appears to have absolutely everything youd want in an Arc horse now that hes proven at 12f, on fast ground I dont see him getting beat.
Sottsass looks the one to be on bar Enable in the Arc. She beats them all if running up to form but lets see what the draw is.
Waldgeist was slightly faster in the final 400m but he had a clear run at it and was level weights with the 3yo today, he will have to give Sottsass 6 pounds I believe in the Arc and it seems unlikely he will be able to beat him on those terms. please log in to view this image
You have to wonder with assessors sometimes. Mohawk was 7 and a half lengths closer to Sottsass today than he was in the French Derby but the Racing Post guy manages to give Sottsass a 1 lb higher rating on 120 today. Every single time Mohawk has run in a Group 1 race he has been abysmal and I reckon rating him 114 for today is rubbish. Veronesi was given a personal best of 113 for being 4th today. He was last seen running to 95 when 4th to Technician in a Listed race. We saw Technician's limitations exposed in the St Leger and I think Veronesi's rating of 113 is utter bollocks. Armory ran to a lower mark than his official 110 rating in my opinion today. He certainly never came forward or we would need to rate Pinatubo well into the 130s. I'll be against him at short odds for sure.
His last run has been overrated at 110 with the 88 rated runner up given 107 to justify it as you pointed out previously, he clearly ran to a higher level today beating Geometrical and Roman Turbo 4L further than he did in the Futurity. The handicappers obviously incorporate opinion on ability into the rating of horses sometimes rather than strictly what the facts say otherwise it would be even easier to abuse the handicap system than it already is. In this case the handicapper was correct about Armory as he ran to 110 today when beating a rock solid high 100s horse in Arizona.
The handicapper needs to get a grip of himself though. By hyping Armory's win up last time it has resulted in Rebel Tale having an official rating of 107. What chance would Rebel Tale have in a Handicap race off that mark? Arizona has an official Rating of 108 and it was ridiculous to have a maiden winner just 1 lb behind a Coventry Stakes winner. The Irish Handiapper has already retreated by 2 lbs with Rebel Tale to 105 but that still looks high to me, Rebel Tale ran behind Mogul and was 4th, the Racing Post were less impressed than the Handicapper with a 102 rating but I think even that figure is nonsense. Mogul came into weak looking Group 2 rated 90 after a maiden win. He was not particularly impressive in my eyes but the Racing Post man shoved him up 20 lbs to 110. In doing so, he had to put the 87 rated runner up to 107 and the 85 rated 3rd up 19 lbs to 104. Even the 5th horse home Cormorant went up 16 lbs to 99. I can only assume the assessor has never worked in a proper scientific analysis field. I used to be a Chemical Analyst and if I took figures like those into the Lab I would have been laughed out of the place. What are the odds that some many mediocre horses suddenly improved over a stone and nearly a stone and a half in the same race? Mogul is generally 8/1 for the Derby and with his dubious form I find that terrible value at this stage. With Pinatubo yet to falter and ahead of him in the Derby betting, I feel Mogul at 8/1 for the Derby is only a wager for foolish or suicidal punters. The Racing Post gave Armory 105 and Arizona 104 for their runs in the National Stakes. My hunch is that it may have been nearer 103 and 102 with their margin behind the winner being so high. Mogul is officially rated 108 now, exactly the same as Arizona. That may be proven correct in time but for now it's fanciful in my opinion and the runner up is saddled with an OR of 104 based on a questionable race in my opinion.
so you think Pinatubo only ran to 122? His 128 is textbook based on Armory running to 110, 9L at 2 pounds per length. 122 wouldnt even put it in the discussion of best 2yo performances, yet the impression was that it was right up there. A Futurity winner and Coventry winner in 2nd and 3rd, looks bombproof that they ran close to 110 and backs up the visual impression that it was a freakish near 130 performance by the winner.
With regards the Futurity, Geometrical and Roman Turbo have both run to the book in the National Stakes, given that Armory beat them 4L further and everything points to him running to 110, I would say Armory ran to around 102 in the Futurity, putting the runner up Rebel Tale at around 100/101 which looks more realistic and also fits in perfectly with his run in the G2 Champions Juvenile Stakes. Based on the above ratings, Geometrical and Roman Turbo would have run to 99 and 98 respectively in the Futurity, and that fits in well with them being beaten 14L in the National Stakes, or 28 pounds. I think its beyond doubt that the Futurity was overrated in the region of 7 pounds.
