Round 4 ... Fixtures for Saturday 31st August and Sunday 1st September Crystal Palace - Aston Villa West Ham - Norwich City Arsenal - Tottenham (Sun) Everton - Wolves (Sun) Millwall - Hull City Birmingham City - Stoke City Luton Town - Huddersfield Town Reading - Charlton Lincoln - Fleetwood Forest Green - Newport Deadline for entries is 2.30pm on Saturday 31st August
Punters I'm sure have noticed that prediction scores this season have almost all been in the single digits, with the winners in two of the three weeks scoring only nine. The vast majority of scores have been seven or below. In previous seasons weekly winners were generally in the low double digits and as high as the mid-teens. The reason is the elimination by TC and Duffen of the 3-point score for correct predictions. I'm not sure of the reasoning behind that as it was done unilaterally without discussion on here. I suggest we return to the old 3-point score for correct predictions and propose a vote on here to make it retroactive to the beginning of the season. Should be easy to calculate. Just add 1 point to correct scores. Anyone agree with me???
I think the idea was mooted last season. It came about because of what was perceived to be a disproportionate rewarding of points for the correct score as opposed to the correct result. It appeared that predicting the correct result was a matter of skill but predicting the correct score was more a matter of luck. For example, against Bristol I started off putting City down for a 3-1 defeat but changed it to 2-1. I thought we would lose but I didn't want it to be by that many. My loyalty cost me a point! Giving three points meant that that someone who only got one result right but also got the correct score would gain the same number of points as someone who got three correct results but no correct scores. Two points for the correct score will inevitably keep the field bunched more closely together. This should keep the interest level going longer as the gap between top and bottom will not be so great and there will b more people in with a chance of winning at the end of the season. So, I can see why the changes were made and the reasons were explained by TC last year. I don't mind which way it goes. I suppose it comes down to how much you value the correct score as opposed to the correct result.
Good points. I wasn't aware it had been discussed last year. If there is a vote lets see how it turns out.
Crystal Palace 2-1 Aston Villa West Ham 1-2 Norwich City Arsenal 2-2 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 1-1 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 1-1 Hull City Birmingham City 2-0 Stoke City Luton Town 2-1 Huddersfield Town Reading 1-1 Charlton Lincoln 1-0 Fleetwood Forest Green 0-0 Newport
1) First, if you are questioning the democratic way the competition is being held, feel free to take it over, warts and all. We published (Duffens & myself) the proposed change in rules at the end of the season in the "final standings" post. In our view, that was the time to bring this issue up, ample time to debate before the new season began. No-one did comment, except perhaps pierredelafrancesca who said he agreed with this season's opening post which included the new bonus award level (2 pts). I'm assuming he read the new proposal. 2) What is the rationale behind the reduction in bonus points (2 to 1) for predicting the "exact score" above getting a W/D/L ( maybe better to define as H/D/A) correct prediction ? A number of reasons: (a) It's a friendly competition. The primary objective is to keep participation to a maximum. Should anyone start to appear to be running away with the competition categories, the tendency would be for punters to give up and the enjoyment/challenge would diminish for all. Reducing the "bonus" from 2 to 1 would ameliorate such a spread, giving punters the feeling that they could recover and stay in the hunt. (b) There is a certain level of analytical & knowledge awareness skill involved in predicting H/D/A results of fixtures. e.g. form, team composition, injury situation, historical results between clubs, impetus of promotion/relegation momentum. management turmoil and many other subtle factors. Prediction of "exact score" I would contend falls more into the "random guess" category as team tactics/management nouse rarely combats number of goals scored by the opposition. We don't want this friendly competition to end up like a couple of non-dart players tossing random darts at a blank wall. Both Duffens & I feel the "bonus" of 2 points is too top-heavy to sustain interest. Give everyone a better chance of thinking through their predictions rather than guessing an exact score. Obviously angling for an exact score based on others predictions can be a useful tactic. (c) Reviewing a few of the historical seasons records, week by week ( I have been calculating & publishing results for a few years as you know), it is highly likely someone who has "guessed" an exact score correctly will end up winning or sharing a weekly win - REGARDLESS of the value of the bonus. Reducing the spread however, keeps up interest. Bottom line response: If you want to change the parameters, do it at the end of the season. Hold a vote, but make it a separate thread so that the clutter is eliminated. Mid-season is certainly not a good idea from my perspective.
It's fully understandable This would be too easy for me otherwise It's a bit like the situation for the Swedish downhill skier, Ingemar Stenmark. Below text is from an old magazine. " The king of the mountain will probably lose his crown this season. Ingemar Stenmark, the 22-year-old favorite son of Tarnaby, Sweden, is being knocked off his throne. If he were a racehorse, the handicappers would long ago have slapped weights on him. Since 1975, the six-foot, 175-pound skier has been the world champion and, as nothing and no one on the slopes could stop him, skidom’s authorities have changed the rules to give mere mortals a chance. “Last season,” says one official, “Ingemar had the world championship all wrapped up by January. The races in February and March didn’t mean a thing and the ski world went to sleep.” Now they’ve jiggered things so that the last events of the 30-race season on three continents will carry a heavier-than-usual load of championship points and extra points will be awarded to skiers who race all three events—downhill, slalom, and giant slalom. The seemingly subtle change should be enough."
A similar situation was a shock to myself & other Brits when they emigrated over here. Every player in every team in every amateur football league got some sort of trophy for putting a pair of boots on during the season. Didn't make any difference if you won the league, the knock-out cup final or inter-league competitions - you had to get the boost of a bit of "gold". I have a room full of bloody trophies. Probably only really deserved 5 % of them.
I fully second the message posted by TigersCanada..post #106 We thought long and hard about the reduction from 3 to 2 points for an exact score, we see it as a way of seeking to ensure there is a more level playing field and to reduce the wide spread of scores that build up during the season, also remembering that 'it's a marathon over 40 rounds and not a sprint'...to coin a phrase. We are keen to keep the interest level high throughout the season for all players, by increasing the number being in the hunt right up to the business end in May. Using 2 points for a correct score can increase the chances of a player(s) 'coming through the pack' and increase the likelihood of players sharing the lead. Whereas with 3 points that element is reduced. Thanks...
Round 4 ... Fixtures for Saturday 31st August and Sunday 1st September Crystal Palace 1-1 Aston Villa West Ham 2-2 Norwich City Arsenal 1-2 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 2-1 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 2-2 Hull City Birmingham City 1-1 Stoke City Luton Town 3-1 Huddersfield Town Reading 2-1 Charlton Lincoln 2-1 Fleetwood Forest Green 0-0 Newport
Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Aston Villa West Ham 1 - 1 Norwich Arsenal 2 - 1 Spurs Everton 0 - 1 Wolves Birmingham 1 - 1 Stoke Millwall 1 - 2 Hull City Luton 2 - 1 Huddersfield Reading 1 - 2 Charlton Lincoln 2 - 1 Fleetwood Forest Green 2 - 1 Newport
Crystal Palace 2-0 Aston Villa West Ham 1-1 Norwich City Arsenal 1-2 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 2-1 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 0-1 Hull City Birmingham City 2-0 Stoke City Luton Town 1-1 Huddersfield Town Reading 3-1 Charlton Lincoln 2-0 Fleetwood Forest Green 1-0 Newport
Crystal Palace 1-3 Aston Villa West Ham 2-1 Norwich City Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 2-1 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 1-2 Hull City Birmingham City 2-1 Stoke City Luton Town 1-1 Huddersfield Town Reading 1-1 Charlton Lincoln 2-1 Fleetwood Forest Green 0-1 Newport
Crystal Palace 2-1 Aston Villa West Ham 2-0 Norwich City Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 2-2 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 1-2 Hull City Birmingham City 2-1 Stoke City Luton Town 1-1 Huddersfield Town Reading 2-0 Charlton Lincoln 2-2 Fleetwood Forest Green 1-0 Newport
Crystal Palace 1- 0 Aston Villa West Ham 2- 2 Norwich City Arsenal 1 - 1 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 1- 1 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 2 - 1 Hull City Birmingham City 1 - 0 Stoke City Luton Town 2- 0 Huddersfield Town Reading 1 - 2 Charlton Lincoln 1- 1 Fleetwood Forest Green 1 - 0Newport
Crystal Palace 2 - 1. Aston Villa West Ham 2- 0 Norwich City Arsenal 1 - 2 Tottenham (Sun) Everton 0- 1 Wolves (Sun) Millwall 2 - 0 Hull City Birmingham City 1 - 2 Stoke City Luton Town 0-1 Huddersfield Town Reading 2 - 2 Charlton Lincoln 3- 1 Fleetwood Forest Green 2-1 Newport