Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 21st. August 2019

Have to say I am surprised by Japan there. I didn't think he had that performance in him. He'll no doubt be short for the Arc after that but I can't back him for that even after today.

Crystal Ocean seemed to have it in the bag and that was a bit disappointing to see him wilt in the closing stages. Elarqam has run well again but I just wonder how strong it really is?

Enable is seeing some of her Arc opposition falling away and if she wins this week she surely goes odds-on for the Arc, which is the poorest looking renewal I can recall. Regal Reality and Crystal Ocean have not exactly given boosts to her collateral form mind you.

Today's win surely means no St Leger for Japan and he's 5/1 for the Arc now. The Leger betting looks a right old mess at the moment and the Arc is as tattered up as my old granny's knickers were.

 

ta da

 

What price is Japan for the Arc now?

 

I expect that Japan will be heading to the Irish Champion Stakes after victory at York, although I would seriously be questioning Doyle’s choice of tactics on Crystal Ocean. The horse is normally held up towards the rear and brought with a couple of furlongs to go but today he tracked the leader and then went to the front with a large part of the straight still to go, asking to be picked off by the ones coming from behind. The fact that a decent size blanket would cover the first four does not make it look like great form when one of them is rated at least 9lb above the other three.

Will Logician head to Doncaster for the St Leger? I am not entirely sure that he will and with no miles on the clock, Khalid Abdullah will definitely have an eye on next season’s prospects. I would not want to be backing Constantinople any time soon as he seemed less than keen to knuckle down to chasing the winner but maybe the high head carriage is just him.

 

Too many hard races in succession for Crystal Ocean IMHO

 

Looking at the race times and the distances between the first few, I'd say Crystal Ocean was not performing at his best today. Probably suffering from the battle with Enable. I hope that Enable didn't have such a hard race and manages to win comfortably tomorrow. No discredit to Japan but his time was slow by 1.07s, having had to battle hard to win. Whereas Logician over the 12f was slow by 0.51s winning rather comfortably (and carrying 1lb more) and looking as if a bit more juice in the ground wouldn't do any harm. Also he is very lightly raced, not raced as a 2yo, and has scope to improve. I would be tempted to run him in the Arc whilst able to get the weight allowance. Failing that, aim him at the Arc next year

 

Well backed..last

 

And your point is?

 

It was below par from Crystal Ocean in my opinion today.

The Racing Post assessor has him running close to his best today but that's his opinion to hold.

My own feeling is that Japan's rating of 127 for today will be considered to be bollocks when we look back at Golden Horn being awarded exactly the same figure for winning the Arc in his day. Aye, I like fairy stories myself.

 

Constantinople has always had that high head carriage and to be fair to the horse he was the only one who made any sort of race of it today. I think he's good value each-way in the Leger when you consider he is 14/1 and Sir Dragonet is half those odds in places after being stuffed in an egg and spoon race the other say. Japan is 3/1 but surely has next to zero chance of running in the race.

With Enable in the same ownership it would seem folly to have a potential hat-trick undone by one of your own horses and Logician will meet better horses if he skips the St Leger.

 

Constantinoples brother was a dog as well, Bondi Beach.

 

Didn’t he lose the leger, win it then lose it again

 

Other than Logician Constantinople will be in good company in the St Leger because it will probably have a field populated by so many hounds that it could be mistaken for the 2.37 at Walthamstow.

Bondi Beach was a lot slower than Constantinople. He started his career at 12F on Heavy ground and was a real barge in all honesty. The Leger trip can be a real leveller in soft conditions and Harbour Law was a 102 rated Handicapper who managed to win it after Seamie Heffernan managed to part company with Idaho and get a closer look at turf conditions.

I am pretty sure Logician will run in the St Leger as it's the only chance he will ever have to put a Classic on his CV and the sponsors will be hoping that a bit of quality turns up for a race that will badly need it. If he doesn't turn up Constantinople has a great chance when it's almost certain that Japan will not be there and there is a huge list of no hopers that will be whittled right down to a thin looking pamphlet of actual contenders.

 

Apologies, reading this a day late but anybody assessing the other three in that finish as having run near to Crystal Ocean’s 127 rating needing taking away for some mental health treatment. The bunch finish and the stopwatch tells us it was not a truly run race and the handicappers have to factor in the unsuccessful change of tactics of the best horse.

There is no logical grounds for arguing that three horses rated 116, 117 and 118 ran around ten pounds better in the same race rather than the one horse rated 127 did not run to its rating. This is just people trying to make up an ordinary Group 1 race featuring one very good horse who did not run to form into something that it was not.

I hope that they are all going to the Irish Champion Stakes because this is one rematch I really want to see the bookies price up.

 

121-122 he will probably get on official ratings, absolutely no doubt Crystal Ocean ran below par, his worst run last year was after the King George as well with an almost identical campaign.

 

God forbid, but the way Gosden looks after Enable (and I admire him for it), if she should suffer any sort of setback between now and the Arc, I suspect she won't take part. In such a scenario it might just be conceivable that Logician could be supplemented