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2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Jun 9, 2019.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Yes I thought Ottoman Court was a soft favourite today and was there for the taking. It was Quadrilateral's first run and she was drawn 1 so had to be tugged back to give her some cover. She did not pull (which is good) and once she knew what she had to do went about her work well. Watson didn't really throw everything at her and she will have derived a lot from that.

    Siskin is bred to be a 7f optimum horse. He may get 8f. He looks near on the best 2yo so far.
     
    #101
  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I think Pinatubo would tear Siskin a new one but they probably won't clash. I would lay Siskin at 8/1 for the Guineas until the end of time, or Brexit, whichever comes later.

    Earthlight could place his claim to being top of the juveniles on Sunday. He takes on Arizona and A'Ali, as well as Raffle Prize, in the Prix Morny this weekend. Fabre hasn't been in the best of form this past couple of months but Earthlight bucked a really bad spell for the stable when destroying Well Of Wisdom last time out. Earthlight was not impressive on his debut and the race worked out terribly but his second start saw him in a very different light when winning well and the race has worked out well with the second third and fourth all winning next time out. Runner up Les Hogues went on to win a Listed race nicely next time and the runner up in that one, Happy Bere was a good winner of a Listed contest recently.

    Arizona took a while to get going in the Coventry and only collared Threat late on. Threat was beaten next time behind Golden Horde who reopposed from the Ascot race and he recently ducked a contest where Siskin was left to win in his absence.. I prefer the Fabre runner as the potentially star class colt.

    A'Ali won the Prix Robert Papin but he was short odds there and it was comfortable rather than imposing. His Norfolk win doesn't excite me as much as it has some judges and it is likely he will need to improve a little for the full 6F trip this time.

    It's pretty tight on ratings and Mark Johnston's Raffle Prize tops the Racing Post ratings when taking her allowance into account. I feel less impressed by the fillies this season though and the Johnston runners have a terrible habit of throwing in an absolute stinker when fancied. I'll pass on Raffle Prize.

    Aroha has a huge rating of 100 for a maiden and has come a long way since running to 55 a Bath in May. She then placed at 100/1 in the Albany before finishing runner up as an outsider in the Princess Margaret next time. This seems a stiff ask though and I would rather have seen her win something than tackle some of the cream of the season thus far.

    Devil has a huge task after winning a modest race on debut. Freddy Head has him entered in the Middle Park and Dewhurst but he needs to find two stone in a hurry.

    I have backed Earthlight at 5/2 and any improvement from his last start will make him tough to beat. I feel Arizona may find this a bit too much of a speed test based on his Coventry run and it seems odd that they ducked the clash with Siskin.

    Prix Morny Earthlight 5/2
    was my pick for an intriguing contest.
     
    #102
  3. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Posted about Earthlight on the French thread last month, been very impressed by him, was considering a bet for the Guineas at 25/1 but looking like he might be a sprinter. Could see him ending up in the Middle Park with Pinatubo in the Dewhurst for Godolhpin, looks like the best bunch of 2yos theyve had for a while.
     
    #103
  4. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Kimari looked the part on her first start since Ascot, that was a very good renewal of the Queen Mary I think and Kimari is being targetted at the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

     
    #104
  5. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Job done from Armory, workmanlike but you cant knock him winning these good races, looks a typical high level boring Obrien horse who will keep progressing.

    Not sure he has the gears to trouble Pinatubo in the National Stakes but that will be a far more testing race for him than the Vintage, and of the 2 youd think Armory will be more suited to the testing Guineas mile next may.

    Threat back into 20/1, Murphy thinks he will stay a mile no problem and ive always though the was a miler, would like to see them step up to 7f next time.
     
    #105
  6. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Loved that run from Petite Mustique, shes taken a few runs for the penny to drop, first 2 runs in very hot maidens and was very unlucky to get beat tonight, shes bred to come into her own next year at middle distances and id say shes a proper Oaks filly in the making, Fillies Mile could be the race for her this season.
     
    #106
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  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Ladbrokes are pulling people's pissers with 7/1 on Armory for the Guineas after that show. The 50/1 runner up had an official rating of 88 after his first four starts and with modest progress over those four races it takes some believing that he improved enough run Armory as close as he did tonight. Geometrical came in rated 92 by the Racing Post and he was 16 lbs behind the favourite on those figures. He's gotten far too close to the O'Brien horse for my liking today.

    I backed Armory for the 2000 Guineas at 25/1 but I think it is nonsense to see him as short as he is at 7/1.

    Threat faced a penalty kick in the Gimcrack today and I thought he was a decent price at 6/4. I came to the race to try to oppose him but quickly concluded there was nothing to take him on with. The Gimcrack is not a race I go looking for Guineas winners in though and Threat came into today's race with 16 lbs and 15 lbs in hand of the horses who filled the 2nd and 3rd places. Threat looked the proverbial "Good Thing" today and he's not really treading the path you would hope for in a Guineas prospect.

    I am not hopeful for Armory based on tonight's show and he'll need to do better next time to justify his odds for the Guineas. He does have the possibility of catching the leading lights up over the winter but I would like to see him get closer than the 13 lbs he currently sits behind Pinatubo on Racing Post Ratings.

    I am not particularly struck on any filly so far this season. I don't share Mark Johnston's hope that Raffle Prize may get a mile next season. The Lowther didn't inspire me and neither did the Debutante this evening. There's a vacancy for an exciting filly to show up over the next month or so.
     
    #107
  8. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Churchill and Gleneagles werent particularly impressive in the Futurity either, I suspect if the horse in 2nd ran in the National Stakes he would be well behind Armory, he seems to be Obriens best colt so far and thats why hes shorter in the betting than he should be on form.
     
    #108
  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The problem with Armory is that he faces Pinatubo, Earthlight and Siskin in the betting for the 2000 Guineas. All three are unbeaten and have superior ratings to the O'Brien colt. Churchill and Gleneagles didn't have that type of opposition lurking in their day and even after winning the Lagardere before being disqualified for interference Gleneagles was still 14/1 for the 2000 Guineas and money didn't start coming for him until January the following year. To have Armory 7/1 in the circumstances seems terrible value, even for an O'Brien horse.
     
    #109
  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I only look at the top price not the shortest, 12/1 seems fair enough, I'm not backing him but if I was a bookie I wouldn't be laying any bigger than that. It's more based on the Obrien/Galileo factor than what he has done on paper, also looks a 3yo while the other at front of market are early 2yo types. I dont consider Siskin a serious contender.
     
    #110

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    A lot is going to depend on on the actual Ratings of the Futurity and I think the Racing Post have put a complete bollocks figure on Armory for that run.

    The rating of 111 for Armory seems incredible to me. That figure has meant they needed to award runner up Rebel Tale 109, a figure 21 lbs above his official mark of 88. Rebel Tale has a run of 79, 83, 90 and 91 as ratings for his first four races. His two previous official ratings were 85 and 88 so it is stretching belief that he suddenly found roughly 20 lbs on his fifth start.

    The sixth home in the Futurity, Jungle Cove is supposed to have found a stone with Armory from their last meeting despite having been beaten 4 lengths further than he was the first time they met,

    Their is an odd form tie between third horse Geometrical an Iberia. When they met previously Iberia had 13 and a half lengths advantage but this time around he was behind the Bolger horse by 8 lengths, a turnaround of 21 lbs in the form, yet Iberia was deemed to have improved by 4 lbs from his first start. Iberia has also run more than 4 lengths worse than he did against Jungle Cove last time they met and again we have to believe that the O'Brien horse has improved despite performing worse against rivals you would think it highly unlikely to match his potential scope for improvement.

    I think time will show that Rebel Tale is not a 109 rated horse and I am not trusting those Racing Post figures for the Futurity one iota.
     
    #111
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Good thread this. Well done chaps
     
    #112
  13. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Debut is tomorrow night at Southwell [7.15]

    Opening odds of 5-2
     
    #113
  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Charlton had a stinker of a year last year with the stable heavily affected by a virus. This year has seen a big improvement, but it is seldom the case that a virus ridden year is followed by a good year as many of the horses affected by that virus fail to reach their full potential. If Charlton has a favourite course it is probably Newbury and in the next few days Charlton introduces two well-bred 2yos in good races at the Berkshire course.

    Friday's Hayes, Hanson and Clark Stakes has become a favourite race for many trainers to introduce or graduate some of their best youngsters and in the past has been won by many a good horse. Friday's race will probably go to Gosden's Cape Palace but I'll be looking at a number of others in the field. A few facts; Charlton trained no Royal winners last year (he's had one 3yo winner in 2019) and badly needs a Royal 2yo winner; Chalton nearly always leaves something to work on with his 2yos but at the same time is fully capable of getting his horses to win FTO; his colt Code of Conduct is extremely well-bred being by French sire of the moment, Siyouni, out of a Selkirk half-sister to Arc and Derby winner, Sinndar. She won twice as a 3yo and was thought good enough to contest the Galtres Stakes in which she finished 2nd.

    Now I'm not saying Code of Conduct will win but I'll be extremely disappointed if he doesn't give a good showing.

    Then on Saturday Charlton has another Royal 2yo entered at Newbury on Saturday. This Muharaar colt is called Evening Sun and is out of a Galileo mare called Fiery Sunset, who hails from the family of El Gran Senor as well as Xaar and Redoutes Choice. Fiery Sunset found her way into the Royal Stud through the goodwill of Juddmonte. Fiery Sunset ran few times but had some ability and won a 12f maiden. Her first foal won on her 2nd outing. Not as difficult a race as Code of Conduct's, yet there are plenty of likely looking colts and fillies in the mile maide.
    Both of these colts could have started at Wolverhampton or Chelmsford so unless the Queen is turning up on on Friday or Saturday why are they running there? As I say I don't expect either to win but will be highly disappointed if one doesn't get a place and both run with some promise.
     
    #114
  15. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    She looked a good girl today even if she did hold her head a touch high and despite running a touch green.
     
    #115
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2019
  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Quadrilateral hosed up today and it looked a group quality performance. The time was almost identical to that of 112 OR Tabarrak earlier and he is a 6YO.

    Nasaiym was the form horse today coming in with a 90 OR after running down the field in the Lowther but I suspect she may have run to less than that today, The favourite Melnikova was a bit disappointing today but even allowing for that 9 lengths is a stunning margin to win by.

    Quadrilateral was promoted to 10/1 Favourite in most places for the 1000 Guineas but given her trainer's modest record in the race, even in the good times, and a tendency not to have horses ready early in the season, it is not a price that appeals to me, even in a season pretty much lacking any real female stars in the 2YO ranks up until now.

    Cape Palace predictably went off mega short for the Hayes, Hanson and Clark but could manage only 3rd place at odds of 1/2 Fav. He looked a bit lacking in pace today and probably put any plans for Group races this autumn on hold. He made his debut at around the same time as stablemate Palace Pier and earned a slightly higher rating from the Racing Post but I said at the time that I far preferred Palace Pier as a prospect simply based on being unimpressed by the field Cape Palace beat on debut. Perhaps neither of them will be quite as exciting as they looked on debut.

    I said earlier in the thread:-

    "Ladbrokes are pulling people's pissers with 7/1 on Armory for the Guineas after that show"

    It seems they have agreed with that themselves now and have him on 14/1 after the National Stakes. I reckon O'Brien completely underrated Pinatubo and would have been better chasing the Champagne Stakes won by Threat in unimpressive style. Only Paddy Power seem to recognise the real chance of Armory in the Guineas with their odds of 25/1.
     
    #116
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Well, one came 4th and the other came 5th so they didn't quite meet my first hope. First Code of Conduct; he dwelt at the start and then ran into closing gaps or the back of other horses. At the distance he was still last but then ran on and finished a short head off 4th only 1 and a bit lengths behind the Gosden favourite who pulled too hard. In another half furlong he'll probably have finished 3rd. He was very green but showed enough to suggest he should win and he may win this year. The winner apparently goes for the Futurity.
    In some respects Evening Sun ran an even more eyecatching race. He was like a mule at the stalls and jumped out far right at the start such that he was soon well adrift of the field. In the race he kept ducking in behind the field. Two furlongs out he started a forward move and was suddenly in contention. The first 4 came away from the rest of the field and he finished 4th. He was as green as grass and, while I'm sure he has ability, unless he deports himself a little better in his next race he may find himself gelded. That may put him straight.
    So both promising runs from 2 immature horses, but I much preferred Code of Conduct.

    Which brings me to Quadrilateral and Charlton and the comments on this thread. That I feel is the best staying filly we've seen this year. So it's not surprising she is being talked-of as a Gineas filly. To say Charlton has a modest record in the 1000G and that he has a tendancy to not have horses ready early in the season is too simplistic. Wel I don't recognise the second comment but at the same time can't think when Charlton has had a filly in the 1000G. Difficult to win if you haven't got a runner. If Charlton had a horse capable of winning a 1000G I'm sure he could get her ready in time. Time will tell. Looks as if she'll go to Longchamp in 2 weeks.
    In the 2nd division of the 8f 2yo maiden today Charlton runs a filly called Maurimo. She is a half-sister to last week's winner Star Catcher. She probably won't win but I'd suggest we keep our eyes on her.
     
    #117
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  18. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    It's just a plain and honest fact. It's fairly obvious and a tad patronising to state that you can't win a Guineas without a runner. My whole point is whether you can trust Charlton to get her to the race and avoid that "No-runner/no-win" statistic.

    I'll leave you to it.
     
    #118
  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    But I have to agree Grendel, it is a rather meaningless fact. This could be the best filly he's had and therefore worth aiming at the 1000 Gns. It's as meaningless as me being told in 2017 that Oaks winners don't win the Arc

    In fact, taken from his web site "BEST HORSES TRAINED Tamarisk, Patavellian, Tante Rose, Avonbridge, Cityscape, Al Kazeem, Thistle Bird, Time Test, Quest For More, Decorated Knight and Fair Eva" it's not that surprising he hasn't has a Guineas winner. Fair Eva was the latest one to run in a Guineas, having been beaten twice at odds on in her last 2 races as a 2yo, and finished 5th btn just under 6l in her first attempt at a mile, in the Guineas. Never raced again , no idea why that was
     
    #119
  20. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    All statements need to be taken in context.

    I was talking solely about whether Quadrilateral was a worthy favourite for the Guineas at the price she was currently trading at. When considering these things the trainers record has to come into it for me. It's not just the win record that needs to come into account but also how often the trainer lines up with a contender on the day. For me, putting a line through Charlton entries in the Guineas has been a safe way of thinning the field down.

    Roger Charlton has been lucky to be well supported by big owners. He gets well bred horses year after year, horses other trainers can only dream about having in the yard. Over a generation of training the chances are you will get some horses good enough to at least run in a Classic. It can't be a case of bad luck year after year and viruses in the yard stopping you. Charlton and William Haggas stand out to me as the two trainers who never seem to have the candidates for the very best races that you would expect on average in a 30 year period.

    Some people have favourite trainers and it seems as if you are not allowed to question of criticise them without causing offence. I once mentioned William Haggas on another forum regarding his lack of success at the upper echelons and was told that Haggas simply doesn't get the quality of horse to train that some trainers do. What a load of nonsense. I recall Haggas had a daughter of Monsun who cost over a million Guineas and he was on ATR telling us that he had entered her in the Oaks and that the owner was purring at the news. Less than a week later Haggas ruled the Oaks out. Fadillah won her first two races. The second race was off 76 in a handicap at 8/15 and she scrambled home that day. Why the hell would you be entering a horse with a new rating of 79 in the Oaks?. When she next appeared in September off that 79 mark in a Handicap and was second. She never raced again.

    Trainers make mistakes and Hughie Morrison is a prime example. He took Telecaster out of the Derby before having to supplement him against his own thinking. That failed badly and the trainer then compounded the issue by saying that the horse would be dropped in class to run in France, only to rush him to the Eclipse and another debacle. Charlton himself was told by two jockey's that Fair Eva needed 7F now but they went to the Lowther at York and unsurprisingly was done for speed by two 5F fillies, a common enough occurrence in the Lowther, which is a pretty poisonous race for Guineas prospects. I questioned the decision to ignore jockey's advice and someone I used to talk to on another forum, who lived in Newmarket and never missed a meeting there told me that she had met Chartlon several times and that he came across as an arrogant person. I don't know Charlton, so I just judge his performance as a trainer and for me he slightly underachieves and part of that is taking horses along very slowly and that is why I don't see him as a trainer for the Classics, as they come early in the season and he rarely seems keyed up for them.

    Quadrilateral is obviously exciting but her RPR of 101 was achieved with the main form horse Nasiym, rated 91 on RPR, running to only 77 this time, That stone shortfall and the Stoute filly also running to less than her debut figure leave enough doubts when combined to the trainer's profile.

    Yes Enable won the Arc in 2017 but she was/is exceptional and doubters can point to the numerous times where they said an Oaks winner could not win the Arc and were correct in the assertion.
     
    #120
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