2YO Horses To Note 2019 Flat Season

7f in a crawl at Deauville or a strongly run 6f at Ascot, dont think it has any bearing on her Guineas prospects, good milers are usually top class at 6f as 2yo.

Galileo has single handedly changed everything seen as you basically need his blood to win a classic these days, he doesnt get many 2yo 6f horses, but if you look back to the likes George Washington and Henrythenavigator, Natagora et al, in theory being a top 6f horse at 2yo shouldnt stop you being a top miler.

 

I have had good success in eliminating horses as Guineas prospects based on their 2YO careers. I find it a useful tool.

Henrythenavigator does not fit my trends because he started at 7F and ran again over the trip later in the season. George Washington doesn't fit either because he won the National Stakes over 7F, proving he wasn't a pure sprinter. Natagora was an exception in not running past 6F at 2YO. She won over 7F the following spring on heavy ground but I still didn't fancy her for Newmarket. I was with Spacious ante-post that season, having been impressed by her debut and she went on to win the May Hill at Doncaster. Natagora got the job done on fast ground in the Guineas and sank my wager but she never won another race after that and she won't go down as one of the good ones in my scrapbook of memories.

I prefer to see them at 7F as a 2YO and recall many more failures than successes in recent times for speedy horses making their first foray beyond 6F in one of the Guineas Trials. It's almost as if connections want to leave it as long as possible before finding out if the horse stays or not. Maybe they think there is special stamina grass growing over the winter. If there is, it doesn't seem to be working for them.

It's not just about this weekend's races, I am hoping Summer Romance runs in France as a precursor to finishing the season at 7F or more, rather than staying at 6F right the way through.

Good milers can be top class at 6F as 2YO horses but I prefer to see them go beyond that trip at least once by season's end. We got all the bluster about Ten Sovereigns being fine to stay at 6F until the Guineas but it was a fool's errand they sent the horse on. Clearly, backers placed faith that Ten Sovereigns would stay based on the trainer's comments but it was a bum steer and was one I didn't buy into at any stage, despite backing the horse for the Commonwealth Cup. As ever, they win the race after the one you backed them for.

 

George Washington won the pheonix by 8L and only ran over 7f in September, Summer Romance has plenty of time to run over 7f. She looks more of a sprint filly anyway but where she runs this weekend has absolutely no bearing on whether shes the best mile filly in may next year, none whatsoever.

The horse Appelby sent to deauville last season was not in the same class, horse of Summer Romance profile should be running at Ascot instead.

 

Enjoying this but reminds me a little of the famous Monty Python philosophy lesson on universal affirmatives; “ all of Alma Cogan is dead, but not all dead people are Alma Cogan”.

 

Summer Romance forfeited from the French race so my gamble backfired there. Charlie Appleby was pretty adamant that the Six Perfections race was the target, commenting that he was looking forward to Deauville. Summer Romance hasn't won the Ascot race yet though and she probably goes off shorter than she should. I got 7/4 on her last time she ran for a Listed contest and surely that WAS value.

Still not sure the Ascot race is the best option for her regarding the long term plan but we will see how she goes. A win surely sees her skinny enough for the 1000 Guineas. I am not seeing anything great in the O'Brien ranks for the 1000 Guineas thus far and I reckon he has a better hand shaping for the colts so far.

O'Brien seems to send his better prospects to the Tyros Stakes and this time around ARMORY looks his leading light in a small field of five runners at Leopardstown tomorrow (Thur 25th July) Armory is a son of Galileo out of After and he didn't really get clued up early enough on debut when running on to be third without ever really being on terms. It is his second race that showed him in his true light where he travelled well in behind runners but had a job getting a clear run. He needed to wait and partly scrimmage his way out and it looked initially as if he would not have time to make up the ground but he really quickened up and ultimately claimed his field easily. Only a really smart horse could have extricated himself from the position he was in and then land the race so decisively. The early talk was that Armory would go to the Superlative stakes but as I saw again this week you cannot trust the words that come out of connections' mouths.

This was Armory's win last time out:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/3/95272/

With the news that Armory goes to the Tyros and the roll call of previous Tyros winners going on to glory at 3YO, I felt Armory was worth a Guineas punt, so I wasted a tenner at 25/1. O'Brien originally had several entered in the Tyros but Ryan Moore is on Armory and Donnacha on Toronto in an interesting small field where Ger Lyons saddles Justifier and Mick Halford Zarzyni, both winners on their sole starts. Justifier beat Armory on debut but that looks a classic Galileo first tiemrun that is overturned next time.

I am expecting Armory to have progressed further and to make a statement win in the Tyros. The 2000 Guineas seems to have some skinny prices at the head of the betting and 25/1 Armory was a carrot I couldn't leave dangling.

2000 Guineas Armory 25/1 to bring 7F form and Galileo breeding to the table.

 

Yes, Eddie has that happy knack of either being deliberately obtuse for the sake of argument, or just not being able to accept that "I HAVE MY OWN PREFERENCES" and that I do not fit into the typical painting by numbers style that forms British Media reporting of Racing. I don't give a fiddlers when a horse runs at 7F as a 2YO, it merely has to have run over the trip. The criteria I use is set in stone, it is not to be bent to fit an argument. The continual reframing of my input and challenging of it is becoming tedious.

 

Think the problem is that you perceive everything as you being challenged, it seems impossible to interact with you without you becoming aggrieved.

I think Appleby made the obvious and correct decision and I think the field will cut up a lot and Summer Romance will end up odds on, Final Song the 3rd choice is not likely to run imo. After the way she won last time, 7/4 was a very fair price to get for a weak looking Group 3.

 

Summer Romance 7/4, Elarqam 6/1 and Crystal Ocean 11/4 my 3 for the weekend.

Was excellent value for the BC Distaff the other day, Skybet were offering 8/1 Midnight Bisou and 12/1 Elate, absolutely astonishing prices. 9/1 Elate is still a very fair price, im expecting her to turn the tables on Midnight Bisou at Saratoga next month, as is the 5/1 about Sistercharlie with Unibet for the BC Fillies and Mare Turf.

 

No Eddie, the problem is that you do not interpret what I have said correctly. You put YOUR slant on it, when it has not been what I have said. I clearly said that it was horses who have not run at all beyond 6F and you try to shoehorn in a horse that only ran once at 7F aged two. That is clearly not within the parameters of my preferences and therefore irrelevant.

You say that Summer Romance not running at 7F this weekend has no relevance on her getting or not getting a mile next year but then cite George Washington and Henrythenavigator in evidence. Those two colts have even less relevance to Summer Romance's chance of being a Guineas filly next year. It's just ramblings from bygone days that mean nothing to me because they do not fit my criteria at all. When someone has a methodology, you cannot bring examples to the table that do not fit the parameters. That is simple logic but you are not following what I am stating properly. It was the same with the Breeders Cup Juvenile, where I made perfectly clear that it was UK trained horses I was referring to but you repeatedly kept citing US trained horses. That is very poor debating. Laughably bad really and I cannot warm to you at all as someone to have a serious discussion with because, at the end of the day you only crop up to try to undermine my input and pull the piss. That whole Sea Of Faith fan club nonsense was ridiculous and unfunny. Just a waste of words and done to rip the piss and nothing else.

Regarding Summer Romance, if the field cuts up this Saturday she will learn nothing and we will learn nothing about her. All we will know is that she is still a good 6F filly. Had she gone to France it was likely the jockey would have been allowed to set his own pace and he could then have really let her stride out in the final furlong when the race was in hand in order to get a stamina prognosis from that. As it is she will likely have to have a sprinter's race again and we will be no further on regarding next season. That is the difference, I am looking towards next year and not Saturday.

Great that you got 7/4 Summer Romance after she was Evens. Well done. If I had pulled that stunt I would have been called an aftertimer.

 

I never cited anything as evidence of why Summer Romances race this weekend has no bearing on how good she will be at a mile next year, thats just my opinion, I believe a horse is what it is and running it over a different distance wont change that, its genetics are already determined.

The horses I mentioned were evidence of top 3yo milers who were top class at 6f as 2yo, nothing more than that and nothing to do with Summer Romance specifically. My argument is that being top class at 6f as a 2yo doesnt mean you cant be a top miler at 3. Id agree with you though that being proven at least 7f is certainly a plus for the Guineas, im just not completely discounting horses based on the races they run in, thats how you work and thats none of my business, but when we are talking racing I will counter that as I did in the case of the BC Juvenile Turf which produced classic winners again this season.

I mentioned Summer Romance price would not last when it was 7/4 yesterday morning when the signs were that she was Ascot bound, 3 bookies were still offering 7/4 at the time.

11.45 AM

You have aftertimed literally countless prices so bit rich coming from you in any case.

 

Oops

If I may add a bit
If a horse is bred to stay a mile or more and has the speed to pick up a top prize in a 6f event as a 2yo, clearly looking as though it will mature into a nice 3yo that will appreciate further, I'm not sure that it necessary for it to prove it will stay before it turns 3. A good trainer should have a very good idea what it is likely to do from home gallops against older horses and with a stop watch, without it being asked too much of a question. There is the early classic trials if confirmation is needed on the track. Doesn't help ante-post backers but that isn't the purpose of the trainer

 

Poor from Summer Romance, she looked to have lost the race before it started and then got no run. Better than we saw today but recovery mission now.

 

Jockey gave her no chance. Insisted on going for gaps that weren't there. Should have taken her to the outside, or inside, early on to give her any chance. Probably wouldn't have won any way but a poor ride from where I was sitting

 

You’d probably expect a more competitive field for a Newbury maiden in mid-August, but there a few fascinating runners. The favourite is unsurprisingly Godolphin’s Ottoman Court, who surprisingly has been a twice-beaten favourite. Haggas’s runner could be interesting and one of Beckett’s could come on but what pleases the eye is the pedigree of Charlton’s Quadrilateral: by Frankel out of a mare whose dam is a half-sister to Hasili. If she can match that pedigree with ability she may be able to take on the favourite.

 

Love Destiny trained by Mark Johnston won on debut last night in a dramatic race, but afterwards was told that his stable companion also unraced is considered to have similar ability and the colt is called: Overwrite

 

George Washington was a sight to behold. Loved that horse.

 

I am waiting for Star Spirit to appear. She did have an entry this week but was not declared.

Star Spirit is by Deep Impact out of Star Of Seville, a filly who won the Musidora in 2015. Like Star Of Seville, Star Spirit is trained by John Gosden and owned by Lady Bamford. A May foal, anything Star Spirit does this year will be a bonus and she should be a longer term prospect.

 

Whats your biggest priced antepost winners Grendel?

 

A good start, she'll have learnt a good deal there.

 

Ottoman Court is proving expensive to follow and was dismal today. Good start for Quadrilateral but the Hannon runner up looks moderate enough coming in rated 70 on RPR today. In theory Ottoman Court was 18 lbs higher on 88 but that looks a pretty hollow notion and he did not look like a colt who progressed 20 lbs from run 1 to run 2 as Racing Post Ratings suggested. Visinari was rated 98 by the Racing Post for winning on his debut and Mark Johnston was very excited about him. Timeform had him as their top rated 2YO at the time but that looks miles off the mark after a disappointing run at Newmarket and then a dismal effort at Goodwood.

The July Stakes won by Royal Lytham looks terrible now, with all eight runs since resulting in unplaced efforts.