Daily Racing Thread Sunday 21st. July 2019

Sunday's Meetings

Tipperary
N/H 7 Races 1:40-5:05p.m.
Curragh
Flat 8 Races 2:00-6:00p.m.
Newton Abbot
N/H 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m.
Redcar
Flat 8 Races 2:20-6:15p.m.
Stratford
N/H 7 Races 2:25-5:55p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Very quiet so far, here's a few from around the courses:

Curragh, 2.35 Cool Vixen, 3.10 Garrus, 5.30 Brazos
Redcar, Mark Johnstone double 2.20 Thunderous and 5.45 Warning Fire
Newton Abbot, Harry Skelton could have a very good day but surely Caius Marcius will win this 3 horse race, seems to have come a very long way for it 2.40.
Stratford, going for Hepijou to complete the 3 timer at 3.00 and in the 4.10 I have it between Mcgroaty and Capital Force. I will go with CF.

 

The lucky last at Redcar is a tight little race, with Oi the Club Oi's looking to come back from a lacklustre outing at Sandown. Both Donnachie's Girl and Jan De Heem looked in decent fettle last time out though, and I think this one will take a fair bit more mulling over before a decision is reached on which one to jinx.

 

i’m doing a r/f donna hides girl and jan de heem

 

Norfolk winner A'Ali is out at Deauville in the Prix Robert Papin and he has a fairly big advantage on ratings. At Even money early doors some will feel it is a point and shoot exercise today and it may well turn out that way. Backed to as low as 4/7 since I first looked this morning the odds of reward are not great now so is he a good thing? Norfolk runner up Ventura Rebel was disappointing in the Super Sprint yesterday though and he was also well ahead on the ratings going into that race before managing only 4th and never looking like winning. Of the opposition, I had made a not of Alex Pantall''s Fantastic Diamond, who won on debut when unfancied and the runner up bolted up next time. This is a bigger step up than I had expected though and the Pantall stable are only 1/20 this past fortnight, which makes her 10/1 odds look a little too short. Instead I feel Jolie will give a good account. The Power filly is experienced and has been progressive. She gave Wesley Ward's Maven a fright last time in a Group 3 race where the much vaunted Hurricane Ivor was a flop at odds-on. Jolie went down by a head to the USA trained speedster with the pair 3 lengths clear of the 3rd and at 7/1 she seems better value than Fantastic Diamond given the form so far. I'll go each-way Jolie 7/1 with a miniscule profit if she places, as opposed to all in on A'Ali.

People looking at the Andre Fabre 1/5 Fav favourite earlier on the card should consider the stable form. Arapaho won on his only start and faces a disappointing field today but I have seen some poor efforts from Fabre runners of late. His newcomer Telemaque went off favourite a little while back but he sat at the back of the field all the way gradually getting further and further detatched, eventually coming home 99 lengths adrift of the field in as puzzling a race as I have ever seen. The Fabre stable are currently 1/28 and batting at less than 4% when the 12 months average sits at a shade over 20%. That seems an alarm bell for the maestro.

Over at the Curragh there is an interesting maiden. I was drawn to the race to oppose the O'Brien favourite Blissful. The Galileo filly has a pair of sevens as a form line and although she ran in Group 2 company last time, the drop back in class is no guarantee of success given that she was last of seven runners in a maiden on debut. That step up to Group 2 grade afterwards looked very ambitious and although she accrued a much better rating behind Guineas candidate Albigna she has yet to finish better than seventh and faces some interesting types today. Vying for favouritism is Jim Bolger's Na Blianta Beo who is bred in the purple being by Invincible Spirit out of the brilliant Bolger filly Finsceal Beo who was a double Guineas winner. The problem for me it that Bolger has been in the doldrums at the higher levels of Racing for some time now and confidence is therefore muted. Jessica Harrington has Sophelanka entered here and an article I read a couple of weeks ago quoted the trainer as saying they had a nice Kyllachy 2YO coming out in the next few weeks. This filly is by Kyllachy and the stable have had several nice youngsters already this season. I don't see any big entries for Sophelanka though and in the end I went with French Rain today. French Rain is by Siyouni and trainer Ger Lyons has had some nice 2YO's, the pick of which is unbeaten Siskin, who is prominent in the 2000 Guineas betting. He would b a good yardstick for any other regarded horse in the stable and French Rain is entered in the Group 2 Debutante and the Group 1 Moyglare later in the season. A speculative selection in a race where the early favourite looked vulnerable, I thought 9/2 French Rain was better value than fellow newcomer Na Blianta Beo.

2.00 Curragh French Rain 9/2

2.50 Deauville Jolie 7/1 EW

Happy punting.

 

good call on French Rain grendel , thanks , wouldn’t have backed it otherwise , cheers

 

Shout with French Rain

 

hi fellas!

stratford,4 10:

a tight little race,but MCGROARTY gets a very narrow vote,as he won well enough at uttoxeter a few weeks ago,beating some solid yardsticks,and though burdened with top weight today,should give another good account..

 

I quite like one in that. NEARLY THERE. The girl on board, Rhona Pindar, is fast earning a good rep op north.

My bumper fancy today is DAZIBAO. Baker really rates this animal. Has given it a long time to recover from a slog round in a listed race at Aintree but after this they plan some novice races on the flat. That’s how speedy they think he is.

 

I think Galloway hills should get back to winning ways in 5.15 redcar

 

newton abbott,5 00:

KINGSTON MIMOSA hasnt won for ages,but is at least relatively consistent,and has slipped to a basement mark now,and holding his form pretty well at present..

 

Top shout again stick

 

Bet you enjoyed that one bumper fans!

 

Well done stick looked more like the jolly than the jolly did, didn't back it as losing weekend but thanks for sharing

 

Cheers stick ,won like an odds on shot !

 

Enjoyed that last at Redcar, Jan de Heem only has the one pace , and handicap suffers as a result , credit to Ella mchain, and the whillans yard are on fire atm !

 

Shout with Dazibao

 

I don't back in Bumpers but Dazibao looked pretty quick there today. The race time seemed slow and Dazibao had far too much toe for the favourite. Interesting to see how he goes on the Flat.

 

Money came late for French Rain and she travelled well for most of the race. I thought she wasn't going to pick up for a moment but she knuckled down and came away well enough. It was a nice debut. The Bolger filly had the dream breeding but that does not guarantee success and she never looked like winning, beaten 8 lengths for the disappointing Jim Bolger stable. Jessica Harrington's filly was ominously weak in the betting and she ran like a drain beaten 16 lengths. Happy with French Rain today, a promising start for her.

In France A'Ali prevailed at odds-on but he took a little while to get on top from an outsider. A shade comfortable 3/4 of a length win but he was less impressive than I would have been hoping to see in that looked a weak affair despite the media claim that it was a strong renewal of the Robert Papin. My selection Jolie struggled a bit to go the pace but she stayed on for 3rd and the place money. She is a small filly who probably would have liked it a bit softer underfoot. She didn't really advertise the Wesley Ward horse Maven's form there but it was another decent run from a filly who is unlikely to progress much further this year and even less so next season.

At the Curragh Eddie Lynam's Soffia seemed to put in a huge career best when dotting up by more than 3 lengths from El Astronaute in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes. She picked up nicely to go clear in a manner that belied her official rating of 104. She will be due a lofty rise after that show but I am not sure I trust her Racing Post rise from 107 to 120 today. 120 is a mark few sprinters reach and I would be cautious myself. Archie Watson's Soldiers Call went off favourite after his Kings Stand 3rd to Blue Point last time but was only 4th today. That seems another kick in the goolies for Blue Point's form but Soldiers Call did lose a shoe during today's race. The bare figures give Soldiers Call on 105 with the Racing Post for today's race, compared to 114 at Royal Ascot in the King's Stand. Interesting to see whether Soffia can back her perceived improvement up on her next start.

 

I saw the week ahead weather forecast with the gorgeous Sarah Keith-Lucas on Countryfile and I wonder if the authorities at Ascot will have the taps on for the big race next weekend.

Apparently it is going to be warm and humid for the early part of the week with high pressure in charge and the winds bringing heat up so that it may reach 40 degrees in Paris and 35 in London. There is a possibility of thundery showers from Wednesday although that is hit and miss. It will get cooler by next weekend but she stopped at Friday.

If they turn the taps on and then it rains, they end up with false ground; whilst if it does not rain and they leave the watering until Friday it is still bad news.

It is the summer, the ground is supposed to be quick (always was in the past before watering became de rigueur), so why not just leave it to Mother Nature?