A Month of Nass

A tried and tested method in these races, look for horses who have a jockey onboard rather than a farmer or even dentist.

 

I say calm down you types. Let’s have no silliness on the forum. Settle, petal. Once again this shows that without my calming influence old girl Anna Key is prone to put in an appearance. Deep breaths now. And calm…

I adopt a deeply scientific method when reviewing old boy Corinthian races namely always look for a double-barrel. In this instance though there aren’t any. Oh how the Brighton Executive must be lamenting right now. I’m therefore afraid as my system requirements haven’t been upheld I can offer no firm conclusions re today’s contest.

 

Interesting thread, this.

Don’t think I’ve ever backed a winner at Brighton, and am unlikely to start now. I’m willing to spend 10 minutes on the race though, so here goes...

I usually start with the top one in handicaps, and work down. A friend of mine who loves casting his net at combination forecasts, tricasts etc in handicaps says to always, include the top one and I’m not going to argue, having seen him pull off a handful of big returns for pennies over the years.

Having said that, it took me less than a minute to dismiss the top one here - recent form is desperate. Same applies to the 2nd in the weights. This is a truly horrible race.

Does no 3 Punkawallah’s 3rd at Wolverhampton in January counts as recent form, and is it any good, at this level? **** knows. Was held up for a run that day, whereas his more recent, truly atrocious form he’s been up with the pace until the point where his challenge melted like an ice cream dropped on the prom. Possible pace angle? No idea, might be. Might come back to him.

Moving on to Strictly Art, and there’s an interesting 2nd at Yarmouth in May. That was a horror show of a race too, but it’s placed form. Jessica Cooley was the pilot that day, but she was replaced by a Miss Emma Jack next time up at Ayr. Emma steered her charge to an inspiring 10 lengths 7th of 10 that day, and retains the ride. Pace angle; it appears this animal likes to race up with the pace, as do half the field. This race might finish in the Channel. Not sure this helps.

So we move on to course specialist Roy Rocket. This season’s form is absolute dogshit, and most of it’s been at Brighton. Can’t back that, though it might be worth keeping a close eye on the market. Perhaps today’s the day - good luck to connections if it is, I won’t be on.

Is it even worth looking at no7, Los Cerritos? Not run on the flat for 833 days, but what’s this? Been running poorly in some mediocre hurdles all year? Do they think a run on the flat might freshen him up before returning to the slow game? Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

Which brings us to no8, Happy Ending, already tipped on this thread. And the odds compilers must have read the thread, because they have him near the head of the market (do odds compilers still exist btw?). Anyway, he seems to have the best recent form - was that an “eye catching run” at Bath? Maybe I’ve got something in my eye.

It seems like this is another one who’ll probably be up with the pace, so will either finish in the drink, in a heap, or in front. Anyway, this has been a long and probably unrewarding 10 minutes and I can’t be arsed to look any further for a Happy Ending

Should maybe also take a look further down the weights at no 10 Seventii, who’s been backed. But I’ve lost the will to live now.

 

No less than seven of these jockeys have never ridden at the track. Thats a huge negative on such a tricky course.
You have to be desperate to bet on these amateur races but I will stick with the tried and trusted method of going for Serena who partners EZANAK for Mr Appleby. Hannah Welch gets 3lbs and can ride a bit so I wouldnt put anyone off Sigrid Nansen either.

 

Geez Nass, if you keep picking these bloody awful races you'll soon be sent to Coventry. Nobody will want a bar of you. I've spent another hour on this stuff and have a small ache between my ears. The first horse I had a peek at was the 9 time course winner Roy Rocket who's had 6 wins over this distance. The 9 year old has had 5 runs this campaign after a 206 day break and they've all been pretty ordinary. People like Ron would have a better idea then me, but the horse seems to be short in his action in his last 2 races, compared to others in those events. I have to rule him out.

I don't know why Ezanak is favourite. Maybe there's a mumble for him, but his two runs back has seen him beat a total of 3 of his last 25 combatants.

I'm not sure that I trust Happy Ending either. The 4 year old filly has had 5 breaks in racing in her short career. Maybe they've been letting her mature as she's a tiny, wee thing, but she could also be a bit on the fragile side. Her last run though was quite decent. She made a quick run from well back but seemed to just flatten out near the line when finishing third. She's won here over 10f in April of 2018. On he last run at Bath, she has to be a chance.

The one I'm leaning towards though is Seventii. Another mare. She ran a decent race over 14f on the dirt last time out and seem a reliable type and she's had two runs here for a third and fourth, but those were in 2017.

I know that picking two is taking the easy way out, but if on the punt, I'd probably dutch the girls Happy Ending and Seventii. Both 11-2.

 

Look for evidence of nepotism in amateur races. Seventii for me, though there maybe other less obvious examples of nepotism in that heat.

 

I hope not stick. W 13/2

 

Can't wait to see what tomorrows f'ing race will be. My brain already hurts just thinking about it

 

The bell!

 

Which one Nass? There are 2
I'm guessing the second one as the first one is a consolation

 

I will take that one as a victory Ronaldo, hosed up!

 

I’ll be touching on both.

 

Most of my brain power is being spent on a system build at present and my brain hurts. So I have only taken a briefish look at the two races (about an hour overall) and will have to give it best. On the main Bell I was inclined to go for Tadaawol 8/1 (probably will go awol now I've picked it). Mount Ararat was only beaten 1l in France in a 25K race 11 months back and only just seems to be running into form so at 10/1 might be a decent alternative. However, in such a tight race those odds are too short to warrant dutching (4 or 5/1 against the field).

In the consolation, Redarna looks the one to be on and 5/1 looks pretty reasonable to me. He won in a decent time here on gf over 7f and carried the weight to win here on gs over a mile. Indifferent to the ground, likes the course Seems to have proved he can carry weight, stays well and also has speed to win over shorter. Obviously goes well for the jockey (2 from 2). That'll do me

 

Housekeeping first - My selections in the thread are down at -4pts so far. However I think the thread is creating a bit of discussion and we've had the winner picked on day one and hinted at on day 2 (Stick you aren't claiming that).

 

So tomorrow as i've already stated is about the Carlisle Bell, the historic and famous (in Carlisle) race, its been going longer than Brexit (1599 - the year of Caravaggio's first public commission and the Battle of Curlew's Pass). Isn't Curlews Pass a lovely name for a horse by the way.

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See, both Caravaggio and Curlews Pass are horse related! Anyway back to Wikipedia.... The race's name relates to the bells which were awarded to the winners of the race in the reign of Elizabeth I. These bells are reputed to be the oldest horse racing prizes in Britain.

It's a good job that Good Queen Bess wasn't keeping with modern tradition or this race would be called the Carlisle Pictureframe and silly horse sculpture.... which by the way brings me onto my hatred of those horse bronzes they give to winning connections. Look at the state of this -

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Right enough of the history, lets get to the race.

 

The Carlisle Bell is like many of the other big handicaps, it has a consolidation race on the same card, and that race can often be an interesting indicator to the big race itself. The only issue is when the two races vary massively in the field structure and the way the races are likely to be run. That to me is what we are likely to see tomorrow.

The consolidation race (14 runners) on the pace angle looks likely to be run at a fairly good gallop, with pace drawn in stalls 2.4,5 and 8. Whilst the Bell itself has a field of 17 with pace in stalls 4,6,7,8,9,11 and 13, which are also likely to set it up as a very strongly run race. The difference between the two is that I think the pace could hold up in the consolidation race, whilst I don't think that will be the case in the Bell itself. The key here is that you have many horses who race prominently stalled close to each other, and a few of them are strong pullers (Lamloom for instance) so it will be hard for the jockeys to time their fractions correctly from the front.

So given that I think the pace is likely to collapse, the analysis must be on the Bell itself. The key here is that the majority of the pace is drawn middle to high, and previous winners have mainly come from where the pace has been developed. As such I am looking to horses who are likely to be able to sit in behind the pace from stalls near the middle of the track. The issue is that you can't really find many of these horses!!

My Amigo is probably one of these but on form he deserves to be 50/1, but it is fair to say that he hasn't had the luck of the draw this season and that this race might see him in better light. I think he is too high in the handicap and can be better looked upon when racing back in 0-80 races. He also probably is best when he is pushing the pace, and probably could also add to the pace burn up if he returns to his racing style of last season.

Therefore I now look at stall 5, the stall of Al Erayg and he is of obvious interest. He ran a really taking race last time out at Thirsk and this race should suit him better, given that he should be able to tuck in behind the early pace and pick a path through them in the final couple of furlongs. He shouldn't have to switch wide like he did last time, and can be seen to much better effect. The concern with Al Erayg is that he doesn't win the races he should, and hasn't got another win on the board since his debut back in France in 2016!

This leads me to the horses Tough Remedy and Mikmak, who both have interesting form in the book and should be suited by the way the race is likely to be run. Tough Remedy is a really awkward horse to weigh up, because he is ungainly and often awkward looking. He also has a better record on the all weather (especially Newcastle) and I think we are beginning to get to a point with him that he might be spared the turf to concentrate on a winter on the all weather.

Mikmak has really interesting big field experience and that will hold him in good stead here. He won a 17 runner race at Thirsk in 2018 and then ran an absolute stormer at York in October to finish 3rd of 16 in a race that went against him on pace bias. I think similar can be said about his last run at York and I think its fair to say that he has shown enough recently to suggest that he can make his presence felt in a race of this nature off his mark of 82.

16/1 EW 4 places at Paddy Power

 

For completeness too, Papparazzi will win the consolidation race at 16/1.

The sweftes horse thes bel to tak for mi lade Daker sake

 

I thought they were called “consolation races” for horses that didn’t get into the main feature????