Daily Racing Thread Friday 21st. June 2019

Lucky 63 and ew acca away from Ascot:

3:20 Redcar - Kalk Bay 10/1
4:05 Market Rasen - Zaliapour 18/1
5:05 Newmarket - Zodiakos 7/2
5:40 Newmarket - Edmond Dantes 10/3
6:55 Goodwood - Laafy 5/1
8:15 Limerick - Sharjah 7/1

 

Friday, well it's Poet's Day, so I'll deffo be finishing early.

Interesting angles all over the place today, which will only be heightened after yesterday's antics by Dettori.
Ryan Moore could mirror that with 4 of his own today - Japan, Ten Sovereigns, Hermosa and Baghdad - though I'm not going near that.

The Coronation Stakes has 1,000 Guineas and Irish Guineas Winner Hermosa versus French Guineas winner Castle Lady which is a peach of a dual and I'm siding with the French winner.

I really like Hello Youmzain ( 3.40 ), too, after beating Calyx at Haydock and I also like Pablo Escobarr (3.05 ) after staying on behind Anthony Van Dyck in the Lingfield Derby Trial, which just might be good form. ( 3rd Nate the Great

I'm really tempted by 2 that may slip under the radar in the opener; Lil Grey, based on last time out at the Curragh and Exceptional, another nice "Friendless" Fahey female and sister to Don't Touch ( Ayr Gold Cup winner ), so a couple of small e/w plays for interest, I think.

The 5.00 and the 5.35 are beyond me, though I can see Nonchalance doing well in the 5.00 and I'd like to see a good performance from Fujaira Prince in the last.
( I've picked Magnetic Charm in the 5.00 for the compo 'cos you've got to give Her Maj some support really, haven't you? )


Of course this is Royal Ascot and you can really chuck all that analysis out the window and simply go with Frankie again


Good Luck all and enjoy your day, I know I will.

 

Royal Ascot for me today:

2:30 - Silent Wave 12/1 (5 places with bet 365)
3:05 - Japan 11/8
3:40 - Ten Sovereigns 5/4
4:20 - Castle Lady 7/1
5:00 - Lady Madison 11/1 (6 places)
5:35 - Fujaira Prince 4/1 (5 places)

Ew Lucky 63 on these

 

Yesterday reminded me how much jumps racing is going to miss Ruby Walsh. Him going through races on the bridle at the festival was the nearest thing jumps gets to the Frankie factor

 

Slightly uninspiring card today. The King Edward VII is a disappointing field and I can't bring myself to have a bet on it. Anyone backing Japan at Evens will probably ponder that he was 5/1 when betting first opened on the race. Bangkok is held on Derby form but he seemed to have followers here before that run and at 16/1 some may chance that he will bounce back. Private Secretary was left in the Derby but after being workmanlike in the Cocked Hat that notion was quickly extinguished. He had a bit to spare last time but looks poor value to beat the favourite, who sits 10 lbs clear on Racing Post Ratings and the same margin ahead on Official Ratings. James Fanshawe's Pondus put up a good effort last time and I am a bit dubious as to whether Private Secretary could give him 8 lbs in a Handicap the way the Official Ratings state he would have to. He came away by 5 lengths conceding 7 lbs at Sandown last time and the step up in trip looks like it will help him. 3 lbs improvement on Racing Post figures would have him joint second best in the field.

In the opener I went with Simon Crisford's Last Surprise at 8/1. She floored a Godolphin hotpot at Lingfield last time in good style by more than 3 lengths, with the pair 4 lengths clear of the rest. The daughter of No Nay Never finished strongly to the line and beyond that day and looked a bit short from being fully tuned up. Last Surprise needs a bit more now but it should be forthcoming and the trainer landed the Norfolk, so with Frankie in form 8/1 looks as big as she will be.

In the Commonwealth Cup I have a bet on Ten Sovereigns from last year at 16/1 but I am not confident, even in the disappointing field. I think he's poor value now and I didn't see enough in the Guineas run to warrant the odds he is now.

I'll leave the Coronation alone, although it will be interesting to see how the Stoute filly runs and whether Hermosa is the real dominant filly that her Irish Guineas win suggested she might be.

The other main bet today is my old pal Hotsy Totsy. I backed her after her promising debut 3rd and she fairly bolted up that day. She followed up easily when odds on next time and she could be well in on just 90 for jockey Jamie "Where are you?" Spencer.

 

I'm with Grendel in the opener - Last Surprise is as good as any, and with Frankie on board it looks a good each way bet. I’m also having an each way bet on Aroha at 200/1. Possible improver, ridden by Harry Bentley
Japan v Private Secretary in the 2nd. Wouldn't be surprised to see either win but Japan edges it for me with the Derby form better than anything achieved by Private Secretary.
Another Dettori v Moore battle in the Commonwealth Cup. This time I think Ten Sovereigns is too short, and Advertise is a horse I have always liked since his 2nd in the Coventry here a year ago.
Hermosa looks a class above the rest in the Coronation.
It would be nice for a royal winner in the 5pm but I am going to go for the progressive Desirious. Harry Bentley underlined his potential yesterday and can follow up today.
The last is all about Baghdad for me. Ryan Moore's record in the last race this week reads 2nd, 1st, 2nd and he will go close again today.

 

2:30 - Galdriel @ 12/1 & Lil Grey @ 25/1
3:05 - Japan @ 5/4
3:40 - Ten Sovereigns @ 5/4
4:20 - Hermosa @ 5/6
5:00 - Lady Madison @ 16/1
5:35 - Collide @ 14/1

Some long ones and some short ones but that's how I see it... Only bet on the long shots, all e/w in singles n doubles...

Good luck to all who are playing today...

 

I posted my analysis at 10PM last night and it's only just appeared. Anyway, I see Jubiloso is very weak in the Coronation, they can't give her away really and Japan is a bit weak as well. Private Secretary doesn't have many fans despite the Frankie factor and it's a bit of a stretch for me that the Official Handicapper raised him a stone from 92 to 106 for winning a poor Listed race by a neck last time. The general feeling was that it was a snug neck but a stone rise for beating the rank outsider of the field?

Money for Last Surprise and Hotsy Totsy but these are wide open races.

 

afternoon,gents!

market rasen,1 50:

well,these early season juvenile races are often hard to work out,but TWO BLONDES was just about the best on the flat,for mick channon,and has gone to a northern top yard in donald mccain.so,if he shows some aptitude for this game,wont be too far away today.

 

gone for an each way lucky 31 today.

Galadriel 2.30a
Humanitarian 3.05
Advertise 3.40
Coral Beach 5.00
Secret Advisor 5.35

 

market rasen,2 20:

hurricane rita is much respected,as she is in the form of her life at present,but ANGEL OF THE NORTH appeals just as much,especially,as she was terribly unlucky at fakenham last time out,and she can race off the same mark today.this is the type of horse,her trainer excels with,and she could well run up a sequence..

 

A lot of my interest in NH racing went South after AP retired. I know he wasn't the greatest horseman - before the purists start - but for my money he was the greatest competitor I've seen in any sport

 

Rito, sorry...

 

Dettori's rides all shortening today. Is that really folk thinking lightning can strike twice or bookies playing silly beggars?

 

Little ew on Diligent Deb 110/1 (5 places) in the first at Ascot. Looks one of the better ones at bigger prices and could outrun the odds

 

I see it got knocked into 100/1 but wow that must be my biggest each way win !

 

market rasen,2 55:

better was expected from ARTICLE FIFTY on his debut for the skelton yard last time out,and he might be a little bit vulnerable to the dark horse masteen here,but i still hope,the "skelton factor" will rule here.