Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 19th. June 2019

Hi NDS, i'm guessing you meant 5.10 Redcar for Harry's Ridge on Friday, no meeting at Thirsk that day.

 

Skelton day at Uttoxeter, two horses from other yards, first one in the 2.10 from Chris Grant - Theatre Act and the ex Easterby Very First Time in the 5:10

Two singles and a double. VFA is my nap of the day

 

Yes MCK1, long day yesterday, flight back delayed due to a technical issue and then decided to go for
a beer when we got back, probably not such a good idea.

 

One for tonight at Ripon [8.50]

Appointed @ 11-5 [Marathon Bet]

 

Dosn't look the greatest of days for full on balls deep betting, never is really is it, but here are my picks for the day...

Day 2 selections
2:30 - Theory of Time @ 11/1
3:05 - Norway @ 11/4
3:40 - Magical @ 2/1
4:20 - Agrotera @ 7/1
5:00 - Whats the Story @ 14/1
5:35 - Summer Sands @ 12/1

Good luck to all who are playing...

 

Very uninspiring day at Ascot for me... only one race of much interest!

 

The Queen Mary looks a minefield. The Godolphin pair Final Song and Divine Spirit are the ones for money, while Kimari is weak, out to 15/2. As ever the O'Brien runner Tango is popular.

Kimari is clearly very fast but will the ground suit her today? There is no issue on that front with Final Song, who won here on debut in good style on soft ground. The issue I do have with her is her odds today. One preview I saw said Final Song's form had been "Franked" by the 3rd, who has won since. The problem with taking form as "Franked" is that there needs to be context. Star Alexander went on to win a Class 4 Novice race at Bath and we are now talking about a Group 2 race with 26 runners, plenty of whom are unbeaten. 5/1 looks short in a field of this size and complexity. Divine Spirit appeals more at 8/1 and her trainer Charlie Appleby is in excellent form. The ground is a question for her today though and although she recorded a good Topspeed figure last time and the 3rd horse won next time, it was only a Class 5 Lingfield maiden that she landed. Ickworth looked speedy last time when flooring 2/5 Fav King Neptune and she is a decent price at 10/1 today. That race has not worked out though and I am struggling to recall the trainer having much joy in the UK in recent times.

In the end I plumped for an outsider each-way for an afternoon interest. Liberty Beach has a bit to find on form but on rain-softened ground in the Hilary Needler at Beverley she pounced from off the pace to finish strongly for quite an impressive victory. With plenty of pace and a big field today, it could suit a closer and at 25/1 and five places available she was the sporting pick. Of the others Divine Spirit is preferred.

2.30 Ascot Liberty Beach 25/1 Each-way 1-2-3-4-5 places.

 

After last night's debate how about 5 helmets 330 Hamilton, somethings gotta win

 

In the Queens Vase I liked Jalmoud from the in form Charlie Appleby yard. Norway ran in the Derby and Western Australia was popular ante-post for this race but has drifted out again.

Jalmoud needs to find a bit with those two but he looks a real stayer and has an Oaks winner as a Dam and a Derby winner as a sire. I backed Jalmoud last time when he won in France and the 2nd and 3rd there went on to fill the same places in an albeit weak group 2 next time. Soft Light looked likely to land that race but seemed to duck the issue, while Khagan was rallying late when hampered by the runner up. More is needed from Jalmoud but he is unexposed and gets a true test of stamina today. I hope to see him wear the opposition down today. His full sister Magic Lily had looked very promising when third to Laurens in the Fillies Mile at two but her career ended there.

I'll play win only but 7/1 looked a fair price for a colt with promise.

3.05 Ascot Jalmoud 7/1

 

With the barbeque summer June weather having turned Ascot into Cheltenham but with black morning suits replacing Barbour jackets, the betting boots are probably going back in the cupboard...

Something with feet like dinner plated probably required in the Queen’s Vase. With the race restricted to three year olds, the normal invasion of slow old plodders will have to wait until Saturday. The Ballydoyle raiding party is headed by likely favourite Norway who ought to be okay with the trip but is unknown if the ground becomes testing. Western Australia is another for whom soft ground may not be ideal, although his third in the Futurity at Doncaster was behind two classic winners and ahead of the St James’s Palace winner! Charlie Appleby’s Jalmoud only won a small Listed race last time so he needs to step up considerably but has only run three times. The obvious place to look for a runner at decent odds is Nate The Great, third behind the Derby winner in the Lingfield trial on soft ground. The son of Nathaniel only looked like a stayer that day and should give Hollie Doyle a good run again if the big name blue-bloods fluff their lines.

What was billed as the big race of the week does feature three of the top older horses in training but really looks easily analysed. Crystal Ocean is really best at twelve furlongs but does have course and distance soft ground form from last year’s Champion Stakes and he is the best horse in the race. Waldgeist continues to pick up good prizes against inferior opponents in France but I expect he will be found wanting again at the highest level even though soft ground suits. It was a career best from Zabeel Prince last time but another one is needed; and the Ballydoyle pacemaker suggests this will not be run like a French race. Whilst Sea Of Class was second in the Arc, there is no other evidence that she wants soft ground and she makes her seasonal bow against a race-fit Magical, not out of the first two in five starts including two Group 1 wins. This should be going to Ballydoyle.

I Can Fly looks up against it in the Duke Of Cambridge with her penalty in what looks a closely-matched race. I wonder if her second in the QEII was a fluke looking at her other form. Pretty Baby has not been out of the first two in her career, is clearly still improving and has no ground concerns so she must be on the shortlist. Rawdaa has not been out of the first three in her career but arguably her best two efforts have been over ten furlongs. Agrotera needs to step up considerably on her form although she did win a handicap at the Royal meeting last year. Having failed to deliver twice as favourite this term, Veracious has surely used up all her credit, including last time when she finished behind Anna Nerium, who handles soft ground and should give a good account at generous odds here.

 

Utt 2:10
If MOOR FREEDOM shows anything like the bumper form that saw her give Emitom a good race she would surely have a chance of belieng odds of 40-1

 

it is going to be a Magical day at Royal Ascot

Final Song has a great chance in the opener and then I am going to go for Jalmoud.
Toughest race is the 4.20, and I have decided to keep things simple and go for the Moore/O Brien combination with I can Fly.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Pretty Baby come out on top, and I also have an each way on outsider Threading.

Royal Hunt Cup - I really like the look of Raising Sand. At big prices small each way bets on Red Starlight, So Beloved and Cardsharp.
No strong fancy in the last but Dettori on board a Mark Johnston horse Iffraaz seems as good a pick as any.

 

typical, I just talk up a Dettori/Johnston combination in the last and I totally ignore them in the first!

 

What race was Johnson watching? 'Jalmoud is travelling well' he says 3f out. Rubbish! Doyle lit him up at the start and was fighting him for the first 4-6f.
Get rid of him (Johnson I mean).

Dashing Willoughby was my tip for last year's Futurity and he ran a stinker. These Nathaniels like the soft.