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Epsom Derby/Oaks 2019

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Mar 26, 2019.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    FFS. It isn't a competition. You both make some very good points worth reading. We all accept that however good the logic is, it doesn't necessarily produce the winner. It is very difficult picking winners based on the form book when form is turned upside down so often. Timeform apply some very sound logic and get it really wrong, and they receive money for it, along with so many other so called tipsters in the media. Nothing wrong with a bit of healthy banter but let's not get too personal
     
    #161
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  2. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Doesn't do humour and doesn't handle criticism Boris....I thought you said the other day that you valued his opinion though.
    Slating me for being last in both classics but he tipped one of them himself this week. At least I was on them at a price and this isn't my gig. Hitting ignore now.
     
    #162
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  3. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I do as he's good at picking winners, but should know better than to take form and ratings as the be all and end all. Think he's a bit mental but I don't mind that, that would explain the obscure theories about the breeders Cup Juvenile and Charlie Appleby losing Dubawis in a certain month. He rarely mentions pedigree which is probably how he could consider space blues a possible Derby horse, but he's good at second guessing trainers re targets and good at reasoning value when being unbiased. Hope he continues to post.
     
    #163
  4. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    If we want to be pedantic whether the Lingfield Derby Trial is this or that is a totally different matter. There is only one Derby winner every year and only one Lingfield Derby Trial winner every year, but there are stacks of other trials or races that Derby winners can run in. If a trainer knows he has a very live Derby candidate he can choose any number of races to run him in, so there is an element of randomness introduced by the choices of the trainer. Recent Derby winners have run in the 2000G, Chester Vase, Dante and numerous races in Ireland. It's more of a lottery which race the eventual runner runs in. I'd expect randomness of the type we have seen. My own personal feeling is that Lingfield is a difficult course for a young horse especially on firmish ground. Interesting that it wasn't firm this year. I can vouch that it was good to soft (at least) the year Teenoso won it.

    The 2yo winning a Derby question does not contain such elements of randomness. It is either Yes or No. I've looked up the meaning of hoodoo on the OED. It would be foolish of me to claim there is witchcraft (which is the primary meaning of the word) in play. However a secondary meaning (and the way I meant it) is 'a run of bad luck associated with an activity'. That would seem to fit the bill perfectly I'd say. As 2 of the top 3 in the betting were unraced as 2yos I'd say those who backed those horses are probably ruminating on it perhaps being a hoodoo under this secondary definition. If statisticians generally accept a 95% confidence level as showing there is a real effect I'd say we are seeing a real effect here.
    When Bois Roussel won the 1938 Derby he was the first Derby winner not to have run as a 2yo. So there have only been 4 winners in 240 years! There have been 3 since in 1973, 1993 and 2013. It has to be very difficult to get a horse in the right physical and mental state of mind to run in the Derby, let alone win it, and whole lot more difficult if that time is compressed into months.
    My thoughts are that it is easier to do than it was. This is mainly because of all-weather racing and all-weather gallops which were unknown until fairly recently. When Fred Darling trained Bois Roussel to win, he probably couldn't get him on the gallops until March, it's very different now. A couple of other points: I'm sure Anapurna benefitted from her outing on the AW in December last year. It put her a race on, that must help; All these non-running 2yo Derby winners had fairly ordinary careers after Epsom. None of them ran as 4yos. They were all reasonably average sires. Pick the meat out of all those statements.

    So I'll say again on New Years Day next year, that it is 95% certain we have seen the Derby winner.

    Having said all that I backed Telecaster for the Derby!
     
    #164
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  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Sir Dragonet wasn't far off winning and may well have won if the ground hadn't been so fast. On softer ground I doubt they would have caught him. Cracking run for such a big inexperienced horse

    Interesting dates there Bustino. Should be looking at 2033 for the next. I'll be long gone by then though. Might become more frequent in the future. 99+% of horses that ran as 2yos don't win the Derby. Not sure what the % is for top rated 2yos winning the Derby but I know I got my fingers burnt once backing 2 outstanding 2yos for the classic doubles. Didn't win any of the classics between them. Can't remember the names which is annoying. I think the colt began with a "T". The filly was a beauty and Timeform raved about her (might have begun with a "C". Bloody memory is going with old age. I'll probably have to search through some old Timeform manuals now <doh>

    One thing I would say is that the horse doesn't know it's the Epsom Derby/Oaks. If it can win a good trial, it has as much chance as anything else in the real race, provided it is well balanced and therefore most likely to act on the track. Obviously there won't be many of these unraced at 2 which it why it is a rarity and madness to try to find one before May
     
    #165
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  6. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Celtic Swing was one of the best 2YOs I can remember. Absolutely hosed up in the Racing Post Trophy, beat Annus Mirabilis 12 lengths. Won the Greenham the following spring and was just touched off by Pennekamp in the 2000 Guineas. He then won the French Derby but flopped in the Irish version and was retired to stud. Ironically his highest rated progeny, Ansgar, was out of a Pennekamp mare.

    Here his romp in the Racing Post Trophy

     
    #166
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  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Lovely horse Celtic Swing. One of our favourites. We used to breed afghan hounds and show them and named our best one Kalahari (that is our affix) Celtic Swing. He won every championship and Open show during his puppy hood (6 to 12 months). Not sure if that has ever been equalled
     
    #167
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Had to do it Bustino. Had a rummage through my Timeform Race horses annuals and eventually found the 2yos I mentioned (well I mentioned the first letter of their names- and surprisingly got both right). The colt was Try My Best and the filly Cherry Hinton. Backed them both ante-post thinking they were unbeatable. I don't think I have backed ante-post in the classics since then; although I did pick out Secreto to beat El Gran Senor in the Derby (purely on breeding) as I was sure he would stay the distance better. It was very close though

    Some of the annuals were in a poor state having moved house a few times. But one was in mint condition and still in its box. Maybe it was because it was when Desert Orchid was champion staying chaser and champion 2 mile chaser in the same year.
     
    #168
  9. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    A fine horse who had dodgy legs. Hence never entertained the idea of going for the Derby. With such poor confirmation perhaps not surprising he wasn't a good sire. Named after the Van Morrison track by Colin Cowdrey's son.

    Try My Best was one of those flops Coolmore/Sangster seem (ed) to turn out every now and again (Appalachee, Malinowski etc.) all good 2yos but not any good as 3yos. Duncan Sasse won the 2000G with Roland Gardens! Cherry Hinton was a lovely filly owned by the Mollers and trained by Harry Wragg. Expected to sluice up in the Guineas but disappointed behind Barry Hills' Enstone Spark, with Piggott getting a real pasting from punters and the press. Funnily enough she never won again.

    You'd have had a good double if you'd have backed Roland Garden and Enstone spark a month before the Guineas. I suppose Shirley Heights was the horse of 1978?
     
    #169
  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    stick, you came over onto the French Racing thread with the sole intention of pulling the piss and then complain when I gave it right back to you.

    You are a hypocrite as far as I am concerned and your boasting about your number of likes compared to mine early in my membership here was/is juvenile behaviour in my opinion. Your tendency to LIKE anything penned by someone disagreeing with my views is also childish nonsense.

    You know absolutely nothing about me and I will be absolutely delighted if you choose to ignore me here. I would love if everyone simply did that instead of harbouring petty grudges and trying to devalue people's contribution at every opportunity.

    If you want respect you should show some yourself.
     
    #170

  11. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    You seriously need to get a grip man. If you are seriously trawling through threads to see what I may or may not have liked then it sounds like you may have some kind of psychological disorder.
    I can and will continue to post where and when I like.
    I actually thought I ended my post with a positive yesterday but you seem to only see what you choose.

    Finally, I don’t want nor do I need respect from you, I have it from people who matter.

    EOS
     
    #171
  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The official ratings are in for the Derby.

    Anthony Van Dyck 118
    Madhmoon 117
    Japan 117
    Broome 117
    Sir Dragonet 117

    The numbers speak for themselves and moving on a lot is going to depend simply on which horses are chosen to head to which races. Despite the bluster about Anthony Van Dyck's speed, none of the O'Brien runners looked like dropping in trip would be a good option. If anything Madhmoon would be the one to consider for 10F but perhaps his trainer fancies another pop at a Derby race.

    I wouldn't be in a hurry to pitch this year's Epsom troops in against older horses and looking at the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, where Japan and Sir Dragonet are 5/1 joint favourites, it looks a real suicide mission for ante-post punters with so much doubt about who will actually turn up? Anthony Van Dyck at 8/1 suggests he is more likely to go to the Irish Derby, while visual impressions suggest Japan and Broome might be Leger types. I prefer Broome of those two for the Leger and if pushed I would select Sir Dragonet for the Royal Ascot race as a good stepping stone for him to regain the winning thread. No thanks at 5/1 though.
     
    #172
  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Excellent news.
     
    #173
  14. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Watched the race a couple of times since and the winner was being niggled a long way from home. First off the bridle. Certainly look a very ordinary bunch and nothing in the classic generation to give a chance in the Arc.
     
    #174
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  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Tipping winners is bloody hard. Look at Racing Post's Pricewise for example. In the Derby he said:-

    "I am surprised Line Of Duty is a 50-1 shot because he has always been Godolphin's Derby horse and he improved with every run, culminating in a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile."

    I assume he missed the Dante then?

    In the Oaks he had this to say:-

    "I want to take a chance on another Sea The Stars filly in Lavender's Blue. She was the most impressive maiden winner I've seen all season when hacking up over a mile at the Craven meeting.


    "Furthermore she is bred to be special and the Oaks trip should be no problem."

    I did feel myself that Lavender's Blue had an each-way chance in an open year with mediocre ratings but Pricewise recommended backing her at 14/1 when there was no 4th place available, while 28/1 and four places were up for grabs on the day of the race.

    Pricewise is described as a "Top Tipster" so it is abundantly clear that it is very tough picking winners. I don't claim to be a "Top Tipster" or anything all in fact. Others refer to themselves as "Kings" or "Judges" not me. I tend to mind my own business here but when people pull the piss I think it is fair enough to defend yourself. It makes me laugh when those who exhibit school playground behaviour then say that I need to get a grip. Get a grip on yourselves.
     
    #175
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  16. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    In hindsight we were making cases for horses trained by Hughie Morrison and Amanda Perratt, should tell us all we need to know about this bunch.
    The top rated horse just scraped home in the Derby and a rating of 118 says everything we need to know.
    The two fillies who fought out the finish in the Oaks are both very nice so yet again the best of the girls are looking nicer than the boys, no money in that!
     
    #176
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Timeform update now in

    By Adam Houghton — published 3rd June 2019
    Adam Houghton rounds up the major changes to the Timeform ratings after a weekend of classic action at Epsom Downs, including an enthralling - if below par - renewal of the Investec Derby.

    Having swept all before him in the key trials for the 2019 Derby, it was no surprise that Aidan O’Brien also dominated the main event itself, with Ballydoyle responsible for the winner (a record-equalling seventh for the trainer) and three of the four who battled it out for the minor honours.

    The small margins between all of them – a little over half a length separated the first five past the post – prevent too high a view being taken of the form at this stage, and, for context, only Sir Percy (119 in 2006), Pour Moi (120 in 2011) and Ruler of The World (120 in 2013) have rated lower than Anthony Van Dyck (123, up 5 lb) amongst Derby winners since the turn of the century, with the renewals won by the first-named pair also notable for having produced similarly congested finishes.

    Anthony Van Dyck had come up short at the highest level as a two-year-old, but he has come into his own since stepping up to middle-distances this season, following up from Lingfield with a success that looked unlikely until late in the day, a storming run up the rail landing the spoils. The Irish Derby is next on his agenda, but there clearly isn’t much between the principals here, and the different test that that race provides gives those behind a chance of turning the tables. Incidentally, he gave every indication from the way he finished that he would stay further, though the St Leger may be a target beneath him now with a stallion career in mind.

    Upped markedly in trip, Madhmoon (122 from 115p) fared best of the non-Ballydoyle brigade in second, going like the best horse for much of the straight and just outpointed by a stronger stayer. A rematch with the winner at the Curragh wouldn't be a foregone conclusion, but supplementing for the Eclipse might be a better option, with a fair chance that he'll prove best at a mile and a quarter.

    Japan (up 10 lb to 122p) and Broome (down 1 lb to 121) filled the next two places, the St Leger likely to be on the radar for both of them, given that they left the impression they would have been suited by an even stiffer test of stamina. Sir Dragonet (up 3 lb to 121p), on the other hand, looks likely to prove at least as effective back at a mile and a quarter and may yet the prove best of these, given that he lacked the experience of those who beat him; he has come a long way in a short space of time and remains one to very much keep on side.
     
    #177
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Timeform not too complimentary about the Oaks either

    "Friday’s Oaks attracted the largest field for the race since 2014, but it was definitely a case of quantity over quality. Indeed, most of the trial winners involved had achieved a level still some way below that required for an average running of the Oaks, and the fact that form-pick Maqsad (down 1 lb to 112p) patently failed to stay and favourite Mehdaayih (up 3 lb to 110p) had a horrible run through led to the race taking even less winning than anticipated.

    At first assessment, Anapurna (up 5 lb to 113p) is just about the lowest-rated Oaks winner this century, having been seen to maximum advantage given how the race developed. That being said, she still deserves plenty of credit for how much she has accomplished in just four career starts, and, given how good her trainer is with slightly tricky types (got worked up beforehand), it would be no surprise if she had even more to offer, likely to stay further than this, too, if and when the situation demands it.

    Pink Dogwood (up 5 lb to 112p) stepped up on the abundant promise of her reappearance in second, sweeping through to lead two furlongs out, those exertions perhaps beginning to tell close home against a filly who was better positioned through the race, rather than that she was outstayed. Clearly a smart filly with more to offer, she will presumably go for the Irish Oaks and may well gain compensation. Stablemate Fleeting (up 5 lb to 110) completed the frame, doing well to make the places given where she came from, and is another who could be bound for the Curragh."
     
    #178
  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Timeform did better with the Oaks

    "Conclusion


    The Cheshire Oaks winner Mehdaayih and the promising Pink Dogwood are very much respected at the head of the betting, but neither look bomb-proof and better value might lie with Mehdaayih’s equally-exciting stablemate Anapurna. She was well on top at the finish at Lingfield last time, and though that isn't the strongest form on offer, it hinted at a bigger performance to come. Maqsad is another exciting filly who looks overpriced at the time of writing, but she's far from certain to stay and may yet head to the Prix de Diane rather than pitch up here. At a price, 1000 Guineas flop Fleeting could surprise a few now upped to a trip more in keeping with her pedigree (dam won over as far as 1¾m).

    Recommended bets:

    Back Anapurna to win Friday’s Oaks at 7/1

    Back Fleeting to win Friday’s Oaks at 33/1"


    Fleeting to win was rather brave but OK for ew backers
     
    #179
  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    But not so good on the Derby

    "Conclusion

    Dante winner Telecaster’s rapid progress this season has really struck a chord and he's fancied to land a blow for the comparatively smaller yards. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Ballydoyle have a wealth of talent at their disposal once more, with their own 'out of the blue' Derby contender Sir Dragonet, who like Telecaster was supplemented on Monday, considered a big threat. Broome, Cape of Good Hope, Circus Maximus and Japan, who is surely better than he could show at York (a comment that also applies to the Roger Varian-trained Surfman), are all expected to launch strong challenges of their own, so the recommendation is to add Japan to the staking plan.

    Recommended bet:

    Back Telecaster to win Saturday’s Derby at 6/1

    Back Japan to win Saturday’s Derby at 10/1"
     
    #180

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