If neither Telecaster nor Sir Dragonet are supplemented I wouldn't be at all surprised if Gosden had a change of heart re TDH
There's no chance of that Ron, the horse patently didn't stay and extra distance still will not help.
Telecaster was entered in the Derby and they then took him out. Perhaps that is a factor in being unsure whether to supplement or not. It would be a bit of a balls up to have had him in, taken him out, paid £85000 to get him back in and then maybe not get any money after all of that? That would be a real Hamlet cigar music moment.
Timeform extract On paper the Dante revolved around the top two-year-old of 2018, Too Darn Hot, who was denied his chance in the 2000 Guineas following a minor set-back. There was no shortage of promising sorts amongst the opposition for his belated return, though, including Line of Duty, Japan, Surfman andTelecaster. It was the latter who emerged victorious under a very efficient Oisin Murphy ride, continuing his rapid progress and pulling clear with Too Darn Hot, who was clear of Surfman and Japan, both well held in third and fourth. Despite the field getting strung out early, as Turgenev and Telecaster went clear, the closing finishing speed was similar to that of the fillies in the Musidora (104.3%), and the resulting timefigure was just 109 (only Carlton House’s Dante slower since 2010), with minimal sectional upgrades needing to be added. The winner was around three lengths clear of Too Darn Hot three furlongs from home, who was in turn around three lengths clear of Surfman and Japan. Too Darn Hot lost little in defeat, doing well to bridge the gap, just unable to sustain that effort late as the winner found plenty. Surfman showed improved form, but wasn’t well placed throughout and held little chance from his position. York have been sharing sectionals via a printout nailed to a noticeboard at the course (it’s 2019), which revealed (if the technology is reliable) that Surfman made very quick progress during the hottest part of the race, just as they entered the straight, before struggled to sustain the effort. He’s likely to win a decent race at some stage, with further improvement on the cards. Too Darn Hot’s full sister, Lah Ti Dar, made light of a 208-day absence to win the Middleton Fillies’ Stakes, needing a better than average effort to see off Rawdaa. In a race that was steadily run (105.7%, 97 timefigure), she (2 lb upgrade) was better placed than Rawdaa (4 lb upgrade) but this should be a good platform for her season. Rawdaa will find weaker races at this level. Earlier I had compared the times of Telecaster and Lah Ti Dar, noting that Telecaster's time made him about 11lbs superior to La Ti Dah. That might be a bit optimistic given Lah Ti Dar hadn't raced for 208 days
Sir Dragonet is 6/1 with Paddy Power and that has to be an oxygen mask job for his backers. I've gone for Madhmoon at 16/1 based on his Guineas 4th place and the fact that he beat new favourite Broome with quite a bit in hand last season. I remember Paul Cole's Generous being 4th in the 2000 Guineas with the comment that he ran on well in the final furlong. Madhmoon ran a very similar style of race and got closer to Magna Grecia than Generous did to Mystiko in his day. Phil Collins sang about a Mad Man Moon with Genesis and I'll go for the Mad Madhmoon bet.
There used to be a saying ' 4th in the Guineas, first in the Derby'. But as fewer Derby colts run in the Guineas now it's probably much rarer than it used to be when that saying came about. I'd say he has a 10f pedigree, but no bad thing when it comes to the Derby. By Dawn Approach out of a Haafhd mare you wouldn't be salivating over the pedigree (sorry Princess). Go back to his 5th dam and you see My Charmer, who was the dame of Seattle Slew and Lomond. So Madhmoon's 4th dam is a Nijinsky half-sister to a US Triple Crown winner.
There also used to be said that having a Derby winner as a sire was almost a prerequisite but times change and trends take a different path. I still let this influence my selection though
Masar was 3rd in the Guineas before going on to win the Derby, so that's encouraging. Interestingly, Masar's first race was a narrow win from talented Sprinter Invincible Army in a 6F race at Goodwood. Looking at that form now you would probably laugh at the prospect of Masar landing the Derby as a 3YO. Madhmoon ran at a mile on debut and again on his second start. Normally 2YO's who start at a mile are more likely to be 10F plus horses. I still recall Greville Starkey citing Dancing Brave's wins over a mile as a 2YO as a reason to think the colt would stay a mile and a half. Watching Madhmoon again on seasonal debut over 7F he ends up being pipped by O'Brien's horse but keeps on. What I though was noticeable was how long it took Madhmoon to reel in and eventually pass the front runners that day. The 7F looked short enough for him. The trainer has said that, judging by how strongly the colt finished his race at Newmarket, he will be surprised and disappointed if the horse cannot get a mile and a half. Trainers are usually optimistic mind you. What will be will be but in a poor looking year I went with something with at least a semblance of pace for Epsom.
It depends how old you are on that one. The first Derby I was cognisant of was won by Larkspur, who was by Never Say Die, and the remark was made that he was first sired by a Derby winner for absolutely years. So my view was Derby winners rarely breed Derby winners and that was a fairly good stance to take because it was another 16 years before Mill Reef sired Shirley Heights. Of course things then change as Mill reef and his son then sired a Derby winner each. But Galileo swamped all that and now his son New Approach has chalked up his first. My view is the best sire for a Derby winner is a horse at his best over 10f.
Then what do you look for on the dam side Bustino; something with stamina or something with speed? How far back in the pedigree would you look? Always worry about choppy pedigrees that look good on paper. Pot luck what comes out. Breeding is a fascinating topic. When I look at Afghan Hound litters it's very easy to tell if they have been carefully line bred because they all look alike (breed type). Where someone has simply mated their bitch to the current champion in favour it often produces different types within the same litter. One or more may make the showground whilst others will not. Different types within the same litter is not a good sign and there is no telling what will be produced if any of these are subsequently mated. Now the interesting bit. When an Afghan Hound (or any breed) produces a litter there may be 5, 6, 7 up to 12 pups. One of these will become the pick of litter and one will be the "runt". If well bred you may be lucky and get several really nice pups. A horse can only produce one foal (normally) so it is pot luck which of the little swimmers actually gets fertilised and develops. You don't get to pick the best one from several. You just have to watch it grow, through all the stages, and hope.
very muddled Derby picture at the moment. it reminds me a bit of 2008 when New Approach was I think supplemented late on and then went on to win. I think if either Sir Dragonet or Telecaster is supplemented next week I think that one of them will win. if not then I am maybe leading towards the Lingfield Trial winner, although it must be years since that winner won the Derby.
High-Rise 1998 was the last to go on and win at Epsom. I remember backing Cumani's colt in a Pontefract Limited Class C race for horses rated 0-90 but I didn't do him in the Derby as I thought he needed too much improvement. I was on Michael Stoute's Greek Dance, who had hosed up at York but he was only 5th and then disappeared for a year.
The 6/1 on Sir Dragonet is gone. O'Brien has said that the Epsom Derby is the one they want to win and that the colt is much more likely to go there than to France. He pretty much suggested that most of his contenders will go to Epsom, mentioning several individually before summing up that a "Good Crew" will represent the team. Looking at the contenders none of them really look to me like they would hold a better chance in the shorter French Derby. Private Secretary is surprisingly being left in by the Gosden team but the 92 rated handicap winner (Off 83) makes no appeal to me and he's appalling value at as low as 25/1. You can get 66/1 in one place if you feel he can improve two stones by Derby Day. Sir Dragonet is 7/2 now and shading favouritism from Broome.
Isn't it about time a Dee Stakes winner prevailed again? Kris Kin the last if memory serves. Circus Maximus (O'Brien 5th string?) each way for an interest.
Madhmoon was taken out of the Irish Guineas. That surely seals his place in the Derby field. Tiny nibbles on the colt into 12/1 in places but enough 14/1 still about. I can't have him bigger than 8/1 in this open affair. Too Darn Hot seems like going to the Irish Guineas though. He was due to contest the St James Palace next but it is not the first time Gosden has turned one out quicker than the original plan. Madhmoon could be the one to outpace them all, looking at his win over Broome last season over a mile he looks like a staying sort:- https://www.horseracing247.net/madhmoon-kpmg-champions-juvenile-stakes-2018/
I would be shocked if Mahdmoon stayed 1m4, doesnt have many options because he won a G2 at 2 and maybe doesnt have the pace for G1 mile races so can see why they are having a go, but not a Derby pedigree. Id have went Irish Guineas then 10f with him.
Looking at the pedigrees of the top 2 finishers in the Derby over the last 11 years. Sires 7 x Galileo 3 x Montjeu 2 x New Approach 2 x Cape Cross 1 x Sea The Stars 1 x Pour Moi 1 x Halling 1 x Kings Best 1 x Mastercraftsman 1 x Spectrum 1 x Farhh 1 x Aldebaran Vast majority by strong 12f horses. Of the non 12f horses from that list: Cape Cross was a miler but hes a bit of an anomaly, pretty much all his top horses were 12f horses. Sea The Stars, Golden Horn, Ouija Board, Crystal Capella... Halling ran only at 10f but was related to a few 2 milers. Jack Hobbs ran 2nd for him and he was out of a Swain mare, Swain won multiple 12f G1s and even won over 14f. Kings Best won the Guineas and never ran again after pulling up lame in the Irish Derby, he was stoutly bred on the dam side being a half to Arc winner Urban Sea. And of course his winner Workforce was out of the mare Soviet Moon, by Saddlers Wells out of an Alleged mare, she was a sister to Leger winner Brian Boru and half to 12f G1 winner Sea Moon, and produced multiple 12-14f horses. Mastercraftsman was a 8-10f horse, Kingston Hill finished 2nd for him and went on to win the Leger, he was out of a Rainbow Quest mare so plenty of stamina. Spectrum was a 10f horse, he produced two Derby horses, Golan and Tartan Bearer, both out of the Generous mare Highland Gift. He also produced the stayer Gamut who is now a a good NH sire. Farhh's dam was a multiple 12f G1 winner in Germany, Dee Ex Be ran 2nd for him and looks like being a potential Gold Cup horse. Aldebaran was a miler, Main Sequence ran a distant 2nd for him, Main Sequence probably the least stoutly bred of the lot on paper, out of a pivotal mare, but he was a half to multiple 12f horses and he himself went on to be a very decent 12f horse in the US. When you look at the damsires its also laden with strong stamina influence, Saddlers Wells, Darshaan, Generous, Bering, Shirley Heights, Rainbow Quest, Dalakhani.... You need proper stamina on at least one side of the pedigree.
Looking at Frankel's pedigree I see no reason why he couldn't produce a classic winner Excuse the format but here are his 3yos. I have emboldened some obvious ones with stamina on the damn side. The one that stands out is of course ANAPURNA who runs in the Oaks and smashed up her rivals in an Oaks trial at Lingfield so will act on the course. Just one niggle, it was soft that day and she won't be getting that at Epsom. By Frankel I can't see good ground being a problem. She will definitely stay Query1 Sex Horse Dam Dam Sire Colour C ARCTIC SNOW6 (GB) WINTER SOLSTICE3 UNFUWAIN b C AYRTON BANKS (GB) PEARLY SHELLS EFISIO b C BROGUE12 (GB) BRACING BREEZE2 DANSILI b C CAP FRANCAIS (GB) MISS CAP FERRAT DARSHAAN b C CASANOVA30 (GB) KARENS CAPER WAR CHANT b C DEAL A DOLLAR (GB) CAPE DOLLAR CAPE CROSS b C DELAWARE13 (GB) ZATSFINE OASIS DREAM b C DELPHIAN3 (GB) ZENDA3 ZAMINDAR b C DOMBRA5 (GB) CHIGUN OASIS DREAM b C EMINENT AUTHORITY (IRE) LANCRESSE DARSHAAN b C FOX PREMIER (IRE) FANN DIESIS b C FOX VARDY (USA) DANCE WITH ANOTHER2 DANEHILL DANCER b C FRANKADORE ADORATION8 HONOR GRADES C FRANKELS KISS (GB) KISS A MISS KISSIN KRIS b C FUME5 (IRE) PUFF11 CAMACHO5 b C FUN LEGEND (GB) BODY AND SOUL3 CAPTAIN RIO b C GANTIER (GB) KID GLOVES IN THE WINGS b C GENERAL FRANCO3 (SAF) PALE MOON RISING2 KINGMAMBO ch C GINISTRELLI4 (IRE) GUARANDA ACATENANGO b C GOING PLACES8 (GB) KHOR SHEED DUBAWI ch C HOME FIRE2 (GB) HOT SNAP3 PIVOTAL b C IMPERIUM14 (IRE) RAMRUMA DIESIS ch C IN FAVOUR3 (GB) POPULAR9 OASIS DREAM ch C INVICTUS SPIRIT (GB) DARING AIM DAYLAMI b C IT HAD TO BE YOU3 (GB) FALLEN FOR YOU DANSILI b C KINGS VOW2 (FR) SEVEN MAGICIANS SILVER HAWK b C LOGICIAN4 (GB) SCUFFLE3 DAYLAMI ch C NEW KING6 (GB) MARINE BLEUE DESERT PRINCE b C NIGHT FEVER18 (FR) NUIT DAMOUR7 AZAMOUR b C OLD GLORY12 (IRE) BELESTA XAAR b C SATONO KNOWLEDGE (GB) LONELY AHEAD RAHY b C SIGNIFICANCE6 (AUS) AQUA BELLA3 OASIS DREAM b C SOGANN (FR) RUMORED ROYAL ACADEMY2 b C STEEN3 (IRE) MORE THAN SOTKA DUTCH ART b C SYRTIS3 (GB) SABRATAH OASIS DREAM b C TOP FOX3 (GB) LADY LINDA2 TORRENTIAL2 b C TOP TOP4 (IRE) JIRA2 MEDICEAN b F ANAPURNA3 (GB) DASH TO THE TOP MONTJEU b F BETTER PLACE2 (GB) BLUERIDGE MOUNTAIN GIANTS CAUSEWAY b F CASUAL REPLY2 (GB) PASSING PARADE2 CAPE CROSS b F CHARTERED3 (GB) TIME SAVED GREEN DESERT b F DAYTIME10 (GB) MIDDAY8 OASIS DREAM b F DOVER BREEZE (JPN) HOUSEHOLD NAME ZAMINDAR ch F DRAGONESS3 (GB) DAHAMA GREEN DESERT b F DUBAI BEAUTY2 (IRE) MINIDRESS STREET CRY b F DUBIOUS AFFAIR2 DUBIAN TO SEA THE STARS F EAST6 (GB) VITAL STATISTICS3 INDIAN RIDGE ch F ELIZABETH WAY2 MAIDS CAUSEWAY GIANTS CAUSEWAY F EXCELLENT FILLE (JPN) XCELLENCE CHAMPS ELYSEES4 b F FAWWAZA STAR ON HIGH3 FUSAICHI PEGASUS F FINAL DREAM3 (GB) STEEL PRINCESS3 DANEHILL b F FOUNT2 (GB) VENTURA11 CHESTER HOUSE b F FRANKELLINA (GB) OUR OBSESSION SHAMARDAL ch F FRILLY6 (GB) LADIES ARE FOREVER MONSIEUR BOND ch F FRISELLA (GB) PANZANELLA DANSILI b F JADEERAH (GB) MAQAASID GREEN DESERT b F KING POWER4 (GB) PROWESS5 PEINTRE CELEBRE ch F LADY FAUSTINA (GB) SILENT ACHIEVER2 OREILLY b F LUCERNE17 (FR) LENJOLEUSE2 MONTJEU b F MEHDAAYIH (GB) SAYYEDATI SYMPHONY GONE WEST b F MILLION DREAMS3 (JPN) MILLION SELLER2 AP INDY b F OBLIGATE3 (GB) RESPONSIBLE4 OASIS DREAM b F PRINCESS ISLA (GB) PEINTURE ABSTRAITE HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR b F PROXY9 (GB) VOTE OFTEN2 BEAT HOLLOW b F RISK TAKER2 MOWAADAH ALZAO F ROYAL FAMILY9 (FR) CRAFTY10 MANHATTAN RAIN b F ROZY ROZ2 TEOFILO2 F SATANO CECIL (JPN) DUPE4 OBSERVATORY2 b F SATONO SOLEIL (GB) DEBONNAIRE6 ANABAA b F SEMERA (GB) INDONESIENNE MUHTATHIR b F SHONAN ARIANA (GB) RESTIADARGENT KENDARGENT b F SUNNY FRANKEL (GB) FEBRUARY SUN MONSUN br F SUPHALA (FR) SEFROUA KINGMAMBO ch F TASLEYA2 (GB) MASHOORA BARATHEA b F TERNIFOLIA (GB) BOUVARDIA6 OASIS DREAM ch F TIME SAVER3 (GB) CLEPSYDRA2 SADLERS WELLS b G MARKHOR2 VORDA ORPEN2
