How can the stats be misleading, they are factual. No Derby winner since 1973 was untraced as a 2yo. It’s simply not how it usually happens. It could be that as we seem to have a below average generation this year that it happens again, then not for another 50 years, What are the odds that both the colts and fillies classics will be won by horses unraced at 2, Sir Dragonet and Lavenders Blue?
This should, of course, be in the Thursday thread - can someone move it, I have a train to catch ...?? Thanks
cant remember but he was much shorter in the betting for his two runs so good chance already had an entry, 2/1 first time out then won Chester Vase at 10/11, Norway is his full brother.
Like many other facts stick, they are misleading. This particular stat does not take into account the important fact of how many unraced 2yos ran in the Derby, or even more important how many of them won a Derby trial en route. Bare facts/stats are useless unless taken in context
No. If I’m honest I think last year was his big chance. Also not handed the best of draws (8 out of the last 10 winners emerged from a single figure draw). I do though wish Mr Ponsonby well and let's not forget that the horse is named after his family motto. I’d fancy the stable’s runner in the ‘consolation’ Chester Cup far more.
Sir Dragonet had won a bad looking maiden race and was rated 81 on RPR afterwards. He was upgraded to 117 for winning the Chester Vase. That 36 lbs improvement was something that I doubt the trainer could have predicted, far less the prospective jockey. It's a bit Fantasy Island stuff to expect Ryan Moore to anticipate that a horse was going to leap forward by two and a half stone in the space of 13 days. Sir Dragonet needs to come forward a bit more in my opinion. The runner up Norway is a horse I felt would be a Leger type this season. I could see him in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot and the Racing Post has to give Norway as being at his very best yesterday to justify their figure for Sir Dragonet. The O'Brien horses often come on a lot for their first run and I would feel more comfortable with 110 for a Rating for Sir Dragonet. There is ample time to increase his mark if he wins the Derby.
Not sure I understand that logic because I think what you are saying the stat, as you call it, thoroughly takes into account that not many unraced 2yos run in the Derby. That’s one of the reasons or factors not many win the Derby. In the population of Derby runners there are not many unraced 2yos therefore not many are likely to win the Derby. And bingo not many have. The other issues are that it is difficult to have a horse ready to win if it’s unraced as a 2yo. It must be difficult to give a horse enough experience before the first week in June. The reasons they are unraced could also mitigate against them, for example injury, immaturity etc.. What has changed and could have brought about the 3 unraced winners of the last 50 years as opposed to the 1 winner of the previous 50 is the entry conditions. Until fairly recently there was only one entry date. Now there are 3 with the latest being the week before the race. Another factor could have been AW racing, but in the case of the Derby doesn’t appear to have been so. Sir Dragonet is not entered and will be an inexperienced colt if he does line up. One thing is certain and that is if he does he will be a very exciting example.
That is exactly my point Bustino. The stat is irrelevant come the day. I agree that if one is looking at the race from a long range ante-post point of view it is very relevant because of that very fact that not many run. Come the day, if the horse is good enough, the stat is irrelevant. That's why I say that stats have to be viewed in context. There are plenty of stats that indicate a horse can't win a race (or most unlikely to) because of such and such a stat. Some of these are simply irrelevant and prove to be so after the race. Please don't ask me to find the examples as I just don't have the time (nor inclination), but I'm sure everyone is aware of examples where the stats turn out to be meaningless
Ok agree. But it doesn't make this particular statistic meaningless. The statistic I quoted some months ago was that by December 31st we are 90% certain to have seen the Derby winner. That still holds and your point supports it. Even if an unraced 2yo arrives at the post on Derby day they are still facing an enormous disadvantage. Experience is a huge thing in the Derby and to have been in continuous serious training for only a matter of months must count against you. It certainly can't be an advantage. I really liked Sir Dragonet (terrible name though!) as he's a big rangey colt who looks a free-runner (once set alight). However firm ground (he has a distinct knee action) and Tattenham Hill (his size and experience) may have to be overcome.
How big is he. I remember a horse in the Derby, aptly named Full Measure. I think he was 17.2 and you can imagine he wasn't suited to the course. Can't imagine why they ran him on that course.
That is, of course, another reason for not racing as a 2yo. A big horse is less likely to be ready so early
If Sir Dragonet is to be a Derby winner, I think the value has long gone now. Looking at other options, he's favourite for the St Leger but at reasonable odds. The problem with betting him for Doncaster is that if he wins the Derby, I don't think they would go to the Leger. Usually the best Coolmore colts miss the St Leger and it is the 2nd tier, slower horses who end up in the weakest of the Classics. Camelot was different because he was chasing the triple crown. If there is value for Sir Dragonet, I think it is in the Arc De Triomphe. If he wins the Derby, you would think he might go to the Irish Derby and perhaps be prepared for the Arc. With older fillies heading the Arc betting and some contenders on the comeback trail, there looks to be a vacancy for a new kid on the block. Waldgeist was quite impressive last time in the Ganay and he is on my Arc radar at 33/1. I would say Sir Dragonet is also of some appeal at 20/1 for Paris in October. If he wins the Derby, those odds will tumble and only keep shrinking if he wins again and gets pointed to Longchamp. I would rather play there at 20/1, than take 4/1 for Epsom.
