The five-day declaration stage has passed and there are still 69 Grand National runners in contention. Anibale Fly heads the field currently and will go off as top weight on 11-10. The Tony Martin-trained nine-year-old was fourth in the race last season. There were few surprises today as many of the big named runners who were officially withdrawn were made known last week. Bristol De Mai has opted for the Betway Bowl with Blaklion, Alpha Des Obeaux and Ms Parfois all out due to injury. Yala Enki has been withdrawn by trainer Venetia Williams. The nine-year-old was looking like a decent each-way bet after his third-place finish in the Coral Welsh National. Gordon Elliott has trimmed his team to 13 (thank goodness but it is still hideous!) by ruling out Shattered Love and The Storyteller althoughd Mala Beach is now due to run. A mix up right at the bottom means Captain Redbeard runs (great for the small yard) and not Bless The Wings who requires one to come out to get in the race. The 2019 Grand National will go off at 5.15pm and the general public will hold their breath hoping there will not be a false start! The world will be watching as events unfold over the 4 miles 514 yards with horses jumping 30 fences over two laps, taking in fences such as the Chair, Valentines Brook, Foinavon, Bechers Brook and the Canal Turn. 600 million people will watch the race in over 140 countries with more than 70,000 in attendance at Aintree on the day. Eight of the last ten winners of the race had previously run over a trip of 3m3½f or further, with the only two exceptions being Many Clouds (2015) and Ballabriggs (2011), both of whom were owned by Trevor Hemmings. So a horse that has run near 4 miles seems to be required nowadays. Out of the market leaders, only Lake View Lad hasn't run over a trip of 3m3½f or further, but he is owned by Hemmings and can therefore be excused with this race the likely long-term plan. The classier horses towards the top of the handicap immediately draw the eye, but having to carry 11st 5lb or more has proved a huge disadvantage which surely puts a big question mark over whether Tiger Roll can repeat last years feat and be the first horse since Red Rum to win a second national. Likely to start favourite only 3 favourites have been successful since 2000! The big, imposing Aintree fences, albeit not as big as they once were, don't allow horses to make mistakes on route to winning the race. Only two of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated their rider more than twice before tasting victory. Horses bringing form figures of U or F into the race on their previous start is also a negative factor and consequently you would have doubts about 2017 winner One For Arthur, who has failed to complete on his last two starts. Horses aged between 8 and 11 have won this race all but twice since 1989, with 12-year-olds Royal Athlete (1995) and Amberleigh House (2004) proving the only exceptions. No seven-year-old has won since Bogskar in 1940 which is a stat Ramses De Teilee will have to defy. The average price of the Grand National winner in the last ten years is 33-1 which is a pretty amazing stat. The build up is well underway and I shall be enjoying the build up on the day and watching the race in the local. The runners are listed below. What are your fancies? 1) ANIBALE FLY (FR) 9 11-10 164 J P McManus Tony Martin IRE 2) VALTOR (FR) 10 11-06 160 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede Nicky Henderson 3) TIGER ROLL (IRE) 9 11-05 159 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 4) OUTLANDER (IRE) 11 11-04 158 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 5) DON POLI (IRE) 10 11-03 157 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 6) GO CONQUER (IRE) 10 11-03 157 Paul & Clare Rooney Nigel Twiston-Davies 7) MALA BEACH (IRE) 11 11-02 156 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE 8) MINELLA ROCCO (IRE) 9 11-01 155 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill 9) LAKE VIEW LAD (IRE) 9 11-01 155 Trevor Hemmings Nick Alexander 10) PLEASANT COMPANY (IRE) 11 11-01 155 Malcolm Denmark Willie Mullins IRE 11) BALLYOPTIC (IRE) 9 11-01 155 Mills & Mason Partnership Nigel Twiston-Davies 12) DOUNIKOS (FR) 8 11-00 154 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 13) RATHVINDEN (IRE) 11 11-00 154 Ronnie Bartlett Willie Mullins IRE 14) ONE FOR ARTHUR (IRE) 10 11-00 154 Two Golf Widows Lucinda Russell 15) ROCK THE KASBAH (IRE) 9 10-13 153 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 16) WARRIORS TALE 10 10-13 153 Trevor Hemmings Paul Nicholls 17) REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 11 10-12 152 J P McManus Anthony Honeyball 18) MAGIC OF LIGHT (IRE) 8 10-11 151 Ann & Alan Potts Limited Jessica Harrington IRE 19) A TOI PHIL (FR) 9 10-11 151 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 20) JURY DUTY (IRE) 8 10-11 151 Sideways Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE 21) NOBLE ENDEAVOR (IRE) 10 10-10 150 Chris Jones Gordon Elliott IRE 22) SANDYMOUNT DUKE (IRE) 10 10-10 150 Ronnie Wood Jessica Harrington IRE 23) MONBEG NOTORIOUS (IRE) 8 10-10 150 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 24) RAMSES DE TEILLEE (FR) 7 10-09 149 John White & Anne Underhill David Pipe 25) TEA FOR TWO 10 10-09 149 Jane Williams & Len Jakeman Jane Williams 26) MALL DINI (IRE) 9 10-08 148 Philip Reynolds Patrick Kelly IRE 27) STEP BACK (IRE) 9 10-07 147 Cracker and Smodge Partnership Mark Bradstock 28) ULTRAGOLD (FR) 11 10-07 147 Brocade Racing John Romans Terry Warner Colin Tizzard 29) PAIROFBROWNEYES (IRE) 10 10-06 146 Fibbage Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 30) BLOW BY BLOW (IRE) 8 10-06 146 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 31) UP FOR REVIEW (IRE) 10 10-06 146 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE 32) SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 9 10-06 146 Neal Griffith & Heather Haddock Tom George 33) VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR) 10 10-06 146 Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent David Pipe 34) VALSEUR LIDO (FR) 10 10-06 146 Gigginstown House Stud Henry de Bromhead IRE 35) VINTAGE CLOUDS (IRE) 9 10-04 144 Trevor Hemmings Sue Smith 36) GENERAL PRINCIPLE (IRE) 10 10-04 144 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE 37) LIVELOVELAUGH (IRE) 9 10-04 144 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE 38) WALK IN THE MILL (FR) 9 10-04 144 Baroness Harding Robert Walford 39) FOLSOM BLUE (IRE) 12 10-04 144 Core Partnership Gordon Elliott IRE 40) CAPTAIN REDBEARD (IRE) 10 10-03 143 Mr S Coltherd W Coltherd
Elliott has an extraordinary number of runners. Not healthy for the sport IMO. Time to limit the number any trainer can enter to 5? Though I do love little Tiger Roll I hope Elliott's scattergun approach is not rewarded with the big prize. Mr Walford's Walk on the Mill for me at 25/1 ew. I'll probably add a couple of others nearer the day.
Had another look at last year's race and was impressed by Valseur Lido's jumping. Travelled up the front most of the way but just got tired late on in the heavy ground with a welter weight burden finishing 8th. Has HdB campaigned him this season with this race in mind? He's managed to get 12lb off his back from 2018 for starters and will prefer the better ground this time round. Paddypower are offering 100/1 ew first 6 so I've had a bit of that.
I fancy Vintage Clouds off a featherweight so will be backing him along with two others out of: Mall Dini Minella Rocco Singlefarmpayment Pairofbrowneyes Dounikos I really think Tiger Roll will go close but I have this bizarre policy of never backing the favourite in the Grand National!
Not a bad policy Captain as favs have a terrible record. I read somewhere that the average SP for the last 10 years is 33/1. I haven't checked it out but I wouldn't be surprised if it is correct.
Yeah if you read my opening post Chan I have mentioned this. I appreciate though I was waffling on somewhat so people might miss some of the stats. Quite a bit to read!
I have: Rathvinden 33/1 Walk In The Mill 40/1 Up For Review 33/1 Ramses De Teillee 33/1 Maybe, and just for sentimental reasons, the day of the race a silly bet on Blow By Blow. Non Runner: Traffic Fluide 50/1.
Sandymount Duke out of the national. So that means Gordon Elliott has another runner to add to his batallion. Alex Hammond appears to be going each way for Step Back but don't let them put you off as apparently she backed Pleasant Company last year..
You did indeed Captain, apologies. I thought I read it on some website highlighting GN trends but it may have been your post . The GN is a good race for trends in as much as I reckon you can knock out half the field with some solid trends. That still leaves you 20 to choose from though .
At the final ant, sorry dec, stage Pairofbrowneyes and (the already advised) Sandymount Duke taken out of the Grand National. The final line-up has been revealed and horse number 40 will be Joe Farrell.
Classic Willie Mullins surely if you were thinking about targeting the Irish national you would know this before now and pull the horse out before last possible opportunity. Shame it wasn't a Gordon Elliott horse pulled out but on the plus side the lovely Rebecca Curtis will be at Aintree and horse is being well backed. When will it be confirmed what horse Walsh rides? Assuming rathvinden. Elliott confirmed all his jockey bookings days ago for his battalion of runners. I mean as if they don't know which horse Ruby is riding.
I’d be surprised, if they both manage to avoid mishap, if the finish wasn’t fought out by TIGER ROLL and RATHVINDEN. Both to me appear, at the imposts, to have any amount in hand. Realise I’m something of a ‘boring boy’ for saying this but think those bookie chappies have got it about right this year. Ireland, last term, had the first 4 home and 8 out of the 12 finishers and think they will dominate again in ’19. I’ve long admired MALL DINI and think he could capitalise should something happen to the above mentioned pair. In fact I wouldn’t put anyone off having a ‘Reverse Exacta’ on these 3 animals. Cor blimey how Exotic – next, I’ll be going on me hols to Benidorm! Meanwhile, for those who like an attractively priced longshot I’ll put up the mare, MAGIC OF LIGHT. Trained by the first lady of horse racing, Mrs Harrington, this mare has a touch of class evidenced by her Grade 2 win over hurdles in January. Is also a multiple winner over fences and her demolition of Drinks Interval by 14 lengths when giving the Tizzard inmate 4 lbs, at Newbury in December, looks exceptional. Think she could sneak a place and at the current 80/1 is recommended.
Bad news for Rathvinden backers. Previously I would have said the opposite but he seems to have developed a bit of a habit for falling off lately
Lol...I still have visions of Benie Des Dieux from first day at the festival now. He might have a great ride on Rathvinden though..
Going now soft over the national course but whether set to improve Friday and Saturday should put the ground about right. I sincerely hope they will not be watering on Saturday..
