The Run In, 2019 Relegation Edition

Leicester did us a favour today

 

Cardiff have the following to play:

Burnley
Fulham
Palace
Wolves
Chelsea
Liverpool
United
City

 

Nasty run out....need to get points early in that tranche of games. And they need to get 3 more points than us because of GD. Not easy....shame.

 

Ouch! Those last 5 games are horrid. Sooner them than us!

 

Looking at Cardiffs run, they need to beat Burnley and Fulham, and hope Crystal Palace and Wolves are having their off days rather than their on days.

 

So. That’s not the order of the games... sorry. I put the block of three easier ones, then Wolves, then a block of toughest ones.

 

I think the max they’d get is 12 points and I don’t think they’ll get that. They could just as likely only get 6 points, which puts them on 34 points.

Let’s hedge a bit and say they get 8 points, that’s 36.

Two wins for us could be enough,

All speculation though.

 

I still think that my prediction of 35 or 36 points being enough will be correct. That’s not to say that’s all we should be aiming for, or all we will get, but if Cardiff can only get 35 or 36 we only have to match them, with our superior GD.

I just don’t want us in the position of still needing a win against Huddersfield on the last day, please.

 

One game at a time. No point stressing.
If we nab a result at Brighton, things will look so different.
If we don't, we reload the stress till the next game.

 

Indeed. Every individual game we could win on our day, so got to take each game as it comes. We won't play well in every game either, and sometimes we'll play well and come away with nothing. The important thing is that it's in our hands...Control the controllables. Errr blue lines, busses, trains and hard work beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.

 

Is it worry Sunday or something? We're 18/1 to go down now.

 

Those odds are way out imo. I’d have our chances at about 4/1 currently

 

The thing is, you just don't know who's turning up this season. There has been some really mixed results. Makes it so much harder to call.
We should be fine, but we don't ever make it easy.

 

Still nice to think that people see us as likely to stay up.....let's feast on that for a while.

 

Our last 8 games with last year's results

Brighton (a) drew
Liverpool (h) lost
Wolves (h) n/a, replace stoke who we played in last 8 drew
Newcastle (a) lost
Bournemouth (h) won
West ham (a) lost
Watford (a) drew
Huddersfield (h) drew

7pts if we mirrored those results = 37 pts. That is surely achievable.

Means Cardiff needing 10pts from their last 8

 

We will get more than 7 points.

 

Nah. The bookies aren't thick. They can see we have considerably better fixtures than Cardiff and Burnley and our form under Ralph isn't relegation stuff. We are where we are solely because of Hughes.

 

The bookies don’t determine prices - the markets do that, and are often wrong.

I don’t think we’ll go down - but 17/1 does not reflect the likelihood in any way. It’s looking like a three way shout between us, Cardiff and Burnley. The outsider in a three horse race isn’t often 17/1. And there is an old horsecing adage that says it pays to back the outsider of three.

Actually let’s call it a four horse race - with 30/1 Brighton still a live outsider. That 30/1 is an insane price.

 

We are where we are solely because of Hughes.

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And because we entered the season with a pretty terrible selection of front players.
Sarah Brightman time approaches.

 

And Les