Off Topic UK politics and brexit ramblings

Rees-Mogg is #desperate for a no-deal #brexit

Sounds like the Russian mafia will take his kneecaps if it doesn't happen

 

We can only hope, I suppose

 

none of that is going to happen.

a) none will form a national unity anything. esp not labour.

b) eu would look at you and go... really? really? it'll take 2 years to negotiate

c) labour want ge now not in 3 years.

 

they made a killing betting on the pound today knowing that vote was going to pass. they will now be betting against it today as the extension won't happen.

 

Why won’t the extension happen?

 

there's several hurdles.

a) vote today

b) eu agreement

c) agreement on duration

d) pass legistative mechanism. (biggest one)


this lot are mad enough to say no to no deal but no to extension and I cannot see them agreeing a length of delay either.

they should delay 2 years. have ge... then agree path forward then go to eu and negotiate withdrawal deal.

that's the thing they SHOULD do. but... if it's 3 months dealt it's rather pointless.

the reality is if dup and erg agreed to negotiated withdrawal deal thus would all be over and they would have their Brexit... even without dup it would have passed this week if tories got act together.

 

The extension motion will pass tonight.

The EU won’t want to be responsible for seeing the no deal outcome happen by default & against the will of the U.K. parliament.

The gammon outrage about Parliament doing its job last night, ignores completely your last point, which is spot on. Brexiters voted against Brexit on Tuesday, and we are where are now as a direct result of their actions.

 

I honestly think we are seriously underestimating how past this whole thing the eu are and want rid.

The point is the EU can decide to not facilitate a pointless extension. it could happen and what could also happen is they make a demand that its a lengthy extension. This imo is far more likely a demand than a 3 month extension which solves nothing.

for me I see May "warning" about eu elections but what I read somewhere was the EU were pushing the maximum extension so thats 21 months.

My issue is if we do pass the extension motion and off may trots then in many days hence swans into the commons and says you can go out to 2021 or my deal... then what happens.

 

The EU will no doubt push for a longer extension.

If she uses the extension as leverage to try and crack the ERG & DUP I think she’ll fail again tbh.

Let’s not forget here, that Parliament last night made clear to the Executive that no deal ‘under any circumstance’ was unacceptable. The Executive has the power to ensure that doesn’t happen unilaterally i.e. revoke.

 

"MPs will vote on a government motion which could see a delay to the UK's departure from the EU.
The UK government said there could be a short delay to Brexit, or a much longer one, depending on whether MPs backed the prime minister's existing withdrawal deal by 20 March - the day before the next EU summit.
If MPs approve Mrs May's deal before that summit in Brussels, then the extension would be until 30 June.
However, the PM warned that if the deal - which has twice been rejected by overwhelming majorities - is not approved, a longer extension will be needed, requiring the UK to take part in elections for the European Parliament in May.
"I do not think that would be the right outcome," said Mrs May. "But the House needs to face up to the consequences of the decisions it has taken."
The DUP - which twice rejected Mrs May's deal in the Commons - said it was due to have talks with the government on Thursday to see if a solution could be found allowing its MPs to support the PM in a future vote.
A party spokesperson said they wanted to find "a sensible deal for the entire UK and one that works for our neighbours in the Republic of Ireland".


So... There is a vote on extension tonight. She will pocket this and head off on to eu summit

She is going to run the clock down to the EU summit without doing anything AGAIN

She will hold yet another attempt to beat her deal into these guys heads.

She will ony then do (9 days to go and counting) to the EU and say... right

either

a) my deal is passed will you give me an extension to pass this (3 months max)

b) My deal failed 3 times what extension will you give me?

do not expect anything to happen after tonight bar ANOTHER rerun of this deal vote next week.

Then we will be <7 days form disorderly brexit and we could be looking at all EU gives is 2 years and her having to try det that through house at 11th hour and 59h minute.

Labout will again vote this deal won. god only knows what will happen is a free vote is given again on extension.

The risks here are huge of no deal and its all down to May and the tories.


I note that they are now directly singling our ROI not the EU as the problem.

 

Theresa May is urging MPs to back a three-month Brexit postponement or face the threat of a much longer delay, in a desperate bid to persuade her pro-Leave rebels to back her withdrawal agreement next week.
After a cabinet "gang of four" and several more ministers abstained and 17 backbenchers voted against the government in a Commons vote ruling out no deal, the Prime Minister has issued an ultimatum to Tory Brexiteers.
In what many MPs see as a last roll of the dice for the beleaguered PM and her Brexit deal, she is effectively challenging her rebel MPs who have now defeated her deal twice: Back me or risk losing Brexit altogether.

 

I said earlier that this whole thing would do justice to what happens in a nursery. In fact I was wrong a nursery has more discipline and order than this shambles of a parliament.

Having been decisively rejected TWICE the deal is being brought to the commons for a third time. Unchanged. If this is not the definition of bullying then I don't know what is? If the deal does go thorough, we will all know then that this parliament voted for a deal that's was rejected by record numbers and yet endorsed not because the deal was any good but because the alternative would be worse.

To say that May was behaving like a school mistress is an insult to school mistresses. The stubbornness of this woman is not to be admired. It shows a complete lack of flexibility and political awareness unworthy of a PM. The sooner she goes the better.

 

She can’t bring her deal back to the House again without making a significant change to it, under Parliamentary rules.

Given the EU have said twice is enough thanks and negotiations are truly over, I don’t see what changes she can make to it that’ll allow it to be brought back for a 3rd attempt mate.

 

they are already talking it... thats all i know

 

Bercow has an interesting decision to make if she wheels it back out unaltered, as the Parliamentary rules look pretty clear to me.

 

Strange how democracy means we're only allowed to vote on #brexit once but to achieve #brexit May has to have votes on her deal over and over until the right result is achieved

 

Browbeating the class until they give in...

 

The irony and blatant hypocrisy of that seems to completely escape her.

No one has changed their minds apparently, I’m guessing they’d give the million dead Leavers a vote from the grave.

 

if 230 became 149 then run it another what 3 or 4 times and it will pass

 

It’ll only ever pass if the ERG & DUP change their stance.

They’ve got a choice to make, either back down and see Brexit delivered, or stand firm and see it potentially binned. The former gives them the opportunity to wash their hands of it & spend years saying ‘it’d have all been brilliant if we got our way’, the latter gives them the outside chance of saving their massive short positions on stock and our currency.